Upset Pick for NFL Week 1: Bills vs. Jets

As bettors, we’re always looking for that sleeper pick that can make us some money. We look for the picks others overlook. We look for the ones that make us look good and help us stand out. In NFL Week 1, there aren’t a lot of those types of picks, but there are a couple that could be very profitable for those willing to take a chance and if you are like me, then you are one of these people. Come along and roll the dice a bit. Here is one game where I happen to like the underdog to win outright and these are the reasons you should too.

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

The Bills are three-point dogs as they travel to New Jersey this weekend to battle the Jets, but expect them to bring everything they’ve got against their division rival.

What they’ve got is a solid run game, some explosive playmakers like Stevie Johnson (if healthy) and a stronger defense than they had last year after the acquisitions of defensive ends, Mario Williams and Mark Johnson. Williams will bring a pass rushing attack to the Bills they haven’t had in quite some time, as they only had 29 sacks as a team last year while Williams has 53 on his own in six seasons as a pro.

Look for Mario Williams to be a factor in the pass rush as well as in defending the run

Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller combined for over 1500 rushing yards last year and will anchor the Bills ground game while Ryan Fitzpatrick hopes to continue to improve. He had 24 TD tosses in 2011, but needs to cut down on his picks, as he threw it to the wrong guys 23 times.

I also like the Bills in this game simply because I’ve never been that high on the Jets. They have done a lot of talking in recent years, but not as much winning as people realize. With a hyped up team last season, the Jets wallowed in mediocrity at 8-8. This year it’s more of the same. With Tim Tebow added the roster, everyone is going gaga in New York, but the fact is Tebow won’t be much of a factor. Rex Ryan says he plans to use the Wildcat, but I seriously doubt Tebow will be in the game when it’s on the line and if he is, don’t expect Tebow magic to save the Jets.

The real strength for New York is with the ground game and Shonn Greene, but with the Bills improved front four, Greene may not be able to break a big one this Sunday. And let’s face it. If the Bills can contain Greene and prevent a big play from Tebow, they will be happy to leave the game up to Mark Sanchez.

Can Sanchez and Tebow coexist in New York?

Sanchez is probably the most overrated quarterback in the NFL. He has a career QB rating of 73.2 and a TD to INT ratio of 55/51, not to mention he completes just above 50% of his passes. You may be asking, well why does everyone talk about him then? He’s the Jets quarterback is the answer.

Take the Bills to win the moneyline in this one at +140. They may not have won a game against the Jets in their last five tries, but that streak is about to end this Sunday. This is the upset pick of the week because while everyone continues to hype up the Jets, they won’t see the Bills coming. However, now you will and you will be able to bank some cash because of it.