Two Picks for NFL Week 5

The NFL can be pretty unpredictable sometimes. So if you are looking for some sure-fire winning picks this week, you’ve come to the right place. Here’s what to expect this week in two of the big NFL matchups.

Buffalo Bills (2-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-1)

The Bills may have trouble defending SF, but they will score points of their own this week

San Francisco is coming off its most impressive win of the year so far, a 34-0 crushing of the New York Jets, while the Bills are coming off an embarrassing week four defeat to New England, 52-28. The Bills are now getting torched for over 32 points per game, but they have been able to score against most opponents, putting up 28.8 points per game of their own. Meanwhile, San Fran will bring an effective running game and one of the best defenses in the league to this week five matchup.

We all know how good the 49ers are. They are a balanced team that can do it all and there’s no question they should be solid favorites at home against the Bills, but 11 points? That seems pretty generous, especially considering how potent Buffalo can be on offense. Sure, the 49ers have a great defense, but don’t expect them to shutout Buffalo like they did the Jets last week. Take the Bills and their big-play ability to cover +11, albeit in what will most likely be a loss on the road.

Tennessee Titans (1-3) at Minnesota Vikings (3-1)

If Ponder takes care of the ball, expect Minnesota to take care of business

With impressive back-to-back wins against the 49ers and the Lions, the Minnesota Vikings have been somewhat of a surprise so far in 2012. Their defense has been stout, allowing just 18 points per game and their offense has been steady, led by Adrian Peterson and the run game. The Vikings have also been mostly mistake-free. Christian Ponder hasn’t dazzled by any means, but he hasn’t thrown an interception yet this year and has played every snap at QB.

The Titans, on the other hand, have struggled especially on defense. Tennessee is giving up nearly 40 points a game and is only scoring 20. There’s plenty to work on and ways to improve for the Titans and I don’t think they’ll start this week on the road. Expect the Titans to get gashed by Peterson, as they have by other runners, giving up 136.5 yards per game on the ground, which ranks 27th in the NFL. If Peterson and the Vikings establish the run game early and control the clock, they’ll control the game. Take Minnesota to cover -6 points.