Pivotal Game Three is at Hand

Tim Duncan
I expect Duncan to be much better in game three than he was in a 3 for 13 effort in game two.

The Miami Heat rebounded from their game one loss with a 103-84 win in game two that included a 33-5 run and an epic NBA Finals moment when LeBron James blocked a Thiago Splitter dunk attempt. The win followed the Miami trend of wins after losses dating back to early January, eleven in all. Ironically, their average win margin in those instances was right around 19 points which is what they won by.

If you told San Antonio Spurs’ Head Coach Gregg Popovich he’d leave Miami with a split I guarantee you he would take it, but he has to be a little concerned about the Heat improving their outside shooting significantly from game one and his team’s inability to take care of the ball as they did in game one. That will no doubt be addressed.

LeBron James
James isn’t scoring a lot but he is doing many other things well.

Obviously every game in a seven-game NBA Finals series is crucial, but historically, no game is bigger than game three. A staggering 92% of teams that win game three of the NBA Finals go on to win the title. Don’t think for a second that both the Heat and Spurs aren’t aware of that fact. Let’s get to the preview of tonight’s big game three.

Miami at San Antonio (Series tied 1-1) – The Spurs enter tonight as two-point favorites at home despite the beat-down they suffered in game two. The over/under tonight is 188 is it was in game two and I really like the over in that one but missed by two points. This evening I really like the under. I expect both teams to clamp down defensively and force guys other than each team’s big three to make big buckets.

The first thing San Antonio has to do is get Tim Duncan going early. Duncan missed his first five shots in game one and then shot a miserable three for thirteen in game two. With Tony Parker working as hard as he has in the first two games, Duncan has to get involved sooner to open up things on the outside.

Another area I think you’ll see more balance in is in the fast break department where the Heat outscored the Spurs 13-3 on Sunday. San Antonio is often mistaken for being a very defensive team, but actually the Heat play better defense statistically. Both teams will get back on defense better in game three and will force the secondary portions of the break to come through.  That means waiting for trailers or being able to find an open shooter along the arc.

I mentioned turnovers earlier and that might be the biggest issue heading into this game tonight. The Spurs turned it over just four times in game one and then fumbled it away 17 times in game two while the Heat turned it over just six times. Miami was able to turn those Spurs’ mistakes into 19 points San Antonio could only convert Miami’s errors into two points. There’s your game right there.

Prediction: A lot of people are suddenly in love with the Heat after their strong performance in game two. What worries me though is that LeBron James is not scoring the points he usually does. Yes, he is distributing the ball well, but the Spurs have done a nice job of limiting his buckets.

With Dwyane Wade less than 100% and Chris Bosh probably in the same boat, that puts pressure on James and those perimeter shooters who were good in game two but not so much in game one. Both teams are experienced in these situations but the finality of things for the Spurs’ big three has to be setting in a bit. I like a big night from Parker and Duncan to lead the Spurs to a victory tonight.