Analyzing NFL Team Win-Totals for the AFC

Ryan Tannehill
Tannehill is the key to whether the Dolphins can have a successful season or not.

It’s once again time to take a look at the National Football League. With training camps ready to open up in about three weeks, all 32 teams have their sights firmly set on Super Bowl XLVIII. This year’s big game will of course be played in MetLife Stadium in New York, errrrrrr, New Jersey and if you’re like me, you’re hoping for an epic blizzard.

Regardless, it’s time to analyze the AFC today. Current projections are from our friends over at Bovada. The opinions on whether teams go over or under are strictly mine of course.


Buffalo Bills 6.5 (+110 over/-140 under) The Bills play the NFC South and AFC North this season which will be daunting. Despite improvements to the QB position, I like the under.

Miami Dolphins 8 (Even over/130 under) Nobody upgraded as well as the Dolphins did through free agency but their success still lies with QB Ryan Tannehill. I like the Fins to get to nine wins this season.

New England 11 (+105 over/-135 under) We have to ask ourselves just how much the Aaron Hernandez issue will haunt this team. I don’t think it does and the defense is better but I still like the under with the crossover divisions they have.

New York 6.5 (+110 over/-140 under) Mark Sanchez? Geno Smith? Does it really matter? There isn’t a whole lot of talent around these guys anyway. Have to go with the under here as Rex exits.


Baltimore 8.5 (-135 over/+105 under) No defending Super Bowl Champ lost more starters heading into the next season than the Ravens. With that, was a lot of leadership as well. I will take the over but just barely as they get to 9-7.

Cleveland 6 (+135 over/-105 under) Call me absolutely crazy but I think Norv Turner running this offense will compliment a good defense and get the Browns to over six wins in 2013.

Dalton is 0-2 in the playoffs and wants nothing more than a shot at improving that.

Cincinnati 8.5 (-140 over/+110 under) Andy Dalton has to produce in big moments because to this point he hasn’t. The talent is there on both sides of the ball so I will take the over here.

Pittsburgh 9 (-125 over/-105 under) Assuming the young offensive line stays healthy and Ben Roethlisberger can avoid major injuries, they can thrive with a new rushing attack behind Le’Veon Bell. I’ll take the over but this assumes they can be somewhat healthy.


Houston 10.5 (Even over/-130 under) The Texans will make the playoffs again but they have the AFC West and NFC West in divisional crossovers. The last part worries me. I like the under as the Texans go 10-6.

Indianapolis 8.5 (-120 over/-110 under)¬†Will the sophomore slump affect Andrew Luck? I don’t think so and I like the pieces they have around him. The problem? Bruce Arians is gone and I think that will impact the offense negatively. I like the under in Indy.

Jacksonville 5 (-115 over/-115 under) In the first six of weeks of the season, the Jags have road games at St. Louis, at Oakland, at Seattle and at Denver. Ya, I’ll take the under here.

Tennessee 6.5 (-105 over/-125 under) I really think this will be a team that builds on some positive things from last year and will sneak up on some teams. If Jake Locker can be healthy, I love the over here.


Denver 11.5 (-110 over/-120 under) The Broncos’ schedule is what concerns me. They get the NFC East and AFC South plus they have five of their last eight games away from home. They’ll win the west, but I like the under.

Kansas City 7.5 (-105 over/-125 under) Andy Reid will improve this team dramatically and so will Alex Smith. The question is whether Reid can stick with talented running backs and not get pass-happy as he did in Philly. I like the under.

Oakland 5.5 (+110 over/-140 under) When you’re paying over $40 million to guys who aren’t even on your roster, that’s a major issue. Oakland will give teams fits this year because they always play tough but I like the under.

San Diego 7.5 (Even over/-130 under) Life without Norv Turner begins for Philip Rivers. This is good news because Ken Whisenhunt is a proven winner at the offensive coordinator position. The running game and defense concern me though. I’ll take the under just barely.