A Review of the Numbers for Week 4

Many look at the NFL from a win loss perspective, while others, including myself, look at it through point spreads and point totals.

The NFL changes each week, with previous weeks winners losing, and losers from previous weeks winning. If this were not the case, then smart money and public bettors would beat the game each week.

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta lost a tough game Sunday night to the New England Patriots 30-23. The Falcons gave up over 7 yards per play to New England. Prior to the game, the Patriots had one of the lowest yards per play averages in the league.

Tom Brady had 316 yards through the air and two touchdown passes. The Atlanta pass rush was not able to sack Brady the entire game. New England was also able to rush the ball for 132 yards.

Atlanta lacks the “big game” mentality and does not get enough stops when playing top teams, which has been commonplace for them for the past six seasons.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens might have lost to Buffalo 23-20 in a game they should have won, but do not write them off quite yet. Joe Flacco had five interceptions in the game and Baltimore still only lost by a field goal.

The offense for Baltimore is not what it was last season, but they can play better than they did on Sunday. Ray Rice and the running game are better than what took place in Buffalo. Defensively they gave up just 4.4 yards a play, while Atlanta gave up over 7 yards in their game. Be careful with the Ravens.

Chalk Talk

This takes a look at how the favorites have done through the end of week 4.

Week 4 went to the favorites as they covered 10 of 15 games. Covering their spreads were New Orleans, San Francisco, Detroit, Seattle, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Tennessee, Denver and Washington.

Through four complete weeks of the NFL season, the favorites sit at 32-28-2. One game was a pick ‘em and does not factor in.

Point Totals

After 62 games have been played through four weeks the point total has cashed 31 times on both the OVER and UNDER, which is not good for those that love the low or the high scoring game. You could get the same results by flipping a coin, one would think. In week four, the OVER cashed out in nine games.

Week 5 Preview

Early numbers on sportsbooks like Bovada, sportsbook.com, topbet, and betonline show:

St. Louis is this week’s biggest favorite. If you guessed their opponent was Jacksonville, you were right. The Rams are an 11.5 favorite in the early line. Both the Rams and Jaguars did not cover a single spread during September.

Over the past two games, the Eagles and Giants have combined to score 43 points. However, in this week’s matchup between the two, 54.5 is the opening for the OVER/UNDER.

The most interesting line of the week has to go to New England vs. Cincinnati. Cleveland just defeated the Bengals on Sunday, but Cincinnati is a favorite by 2.5 points over the Patriots, a team with a record of 4-0. Go figure.