Florida Overvalued at -6.5 versus Connectcut

The Final Four tips off tonight in Arlington, Texas at AT&T Stadium, as just 4 teams remain from the original 68.

In one of the two games, the Connecticut Huskies take on the Florida Gators.

No. 1 seeded Florida is 36-2 straight up and 17-14-3 against the spread. The Gators will look to avenge the loss they suffered at the hands of Connecticut on December 2.

Connecticut seeded No. 7 is 30-8 straight up and 20-14-2 against the spread.

Connecticut defeated Florida in Connecticut on December 2 when Shabazz Napier hit a shot before the final buzzer to give the Huskies a 65-64 win. In that matchup, the Gators were a 4-point dog.

Napier hit five shots from beyond the 3-point arc in the game to finish with 26 points. Billy Donovan, the Florida head coach called Napier a great scorer who is able to do damage by himself.

Florida played that game without Kasey Hill their point guard who was injured and the final three minutes of the game without Scottie Wilbekin the senior guard who rolled an ankle.

Connecticut is 4-0 ATS while Florida is 2-2 ATS in their four NCAA Tournament games. Connecticut has an all time record in Final Four appearances of 6-1.

Florida is currently favored by 6.5 points on Bovada and sportsbook.com, and the over/under point total is on 126.5 at topbet and betonline.

December’s head to head match cashed UNDER the point total of 131. Florida has covered the spread in 20 of its past 29 games played in the NCAA Tournament.

The UNDER has cashed in 14 of the past 18 games for Connecticut and in 23 of 36 this season.

Florida according to Bovada has seen the UNDER cash in 33 of 34 games.

Connecticut has covered the spread in 25 of its past 35 games played on neutral courts.

Florida’s defense is one of the best in the nation. It has held its four opponents in the tournament to an average of 55 points per game. The defense provides the fuel for Florida’s fast break transition offense.

In their Elite Eight matchup, Florida held the potent Dayton offense to just 11 baskets from two-point range. Just 1 of the past 7 opponents of Florida has scored above 60 points.

Napier can play with the best of them and he and two other teammates played on the 2011 national championship team.

Connecticut is deadly from the charity strip hitting 81 of its 92 foul shots taken in their four tournament games.

Connecticut’s defense is no slouch. The Huskies allow just 64 points per game and block 6 shots per game, which is 8th in the nation.

Pick: Florida 62-59