After three games sevens yesterday, there are two more on the slate in the National Basketball Association today. I’m going with one road team and one home team so read on for my thoughts.
Brooklyn (+3) at Toronto, Series Tied 3-3 – According to Andray Blatche, the Brooklyn Nets will win game seven. I guess that means there is really no need for me to go much further then now is there? The Toronto Raptors didn’t take his comments very well. “Who does he think he is?” Toronto guard Greivis Vasquez asked after the Raptors practiced Saturday. “He’s not KG or Paul Pierce or Jason Kidd. We’re not going to listen to his nonsense.”
Well, well… It looks like we are going to have a quite a game seven now doesn’t it? In Blatche’s defense, everything really does point to a Brooklyn win here when you think about all the experience that they have on their roster. That doesn’t mean the Raptors are just going to hand over the win.
Toronto’s game seven experience is limited to just one game and that was a loss in Philadelphia in 2001. The Air Canada Centre has been extremely loud and vibrant in the Raptors’ first three games there and obviously that will be an issue. The only way the crowd can be a factor though is if the Raptors get out strong.
Despite all the experience, I like the Raptors here so give the three and behind a big game from DeMar DeRozan, the Raptors advance.
Keep an eye on… Brooklyn is 3-7-1 against the spread in their last 11 games… The Raptors are 9-4 straight up in their last 11 games at home against Brooklyn… Toronto is 1-3-1 against the spread in their last five games at home against the Nets… Brooklyn is 3-6-1 against the spread in their last ten games on the road.
Dallas (+6.5) at San Antonio, Series Tied 3-3 – Since 2006, the Spurs are 2-2 in game sevens. That includes a game seven loss at home to Dallas in 206 and an NBA Finals’ loss in game seven to Miami last year. I have to give credit to Dallas in this series because I just didn’t see this coming. A tough series? Yes, I figured it would be but I didn’t expect to be thinking that Dallas would have this great of a chance to upset the Spurs.
Let’s keep in mind that while the Spurs are indeed facing elimination, they could also be facing the end of Tim Duncan. Whether or not the future hall of famer is hanging up the sneakers is unknown right now but the end is definitely near.
The fact that the Mavs have essentially been playing game sevens since the last weeks of the regular season isn’t lost on me. They’ve seemingly played one elimination game after another. Despite the veteran leadership in San Antonio, I think the recent experience helps the Mavericks.
One other monster factor to consider today is Dirk Nowitzki. The Big German has averaged 28 points and 15 rebounds in games sevens and he is 4-0 in those games as well. Although some of the numbers suggest a Spurs victory I just can’t go there because they’ve lacked the consistency of past Spurs’ teams. Take the Mavs getting the 6.5 and I love them to win outright.
Keep an eye on… Dallas is 1-9 straight up in their last ten games at San Antonio… The Spurs are 0-5 against the spread in their last five games… San Antonio is 17-2 straight up in their last 19 games at home… The Mavericks are 7-3 straight up in their last seven games on the road.