Deciding on OVER or UNDER on NFL Win Totals

A great number of NFL bettors like to take their chances with the win totals prior to the season’s opening kickoff. There are a number of variables to look at prior to deciding on a team to choose and the OVER or UNDER on their posted win totals.

The strength of schedule is an important factor when trying to determine a team’s potential total wins for the season you must remember the strength of schedule is just a projection and nothing more.

To determine that, the most common way is by adding the wins and losses from last season for their opponents this season.

For example, New England’s opponents in 2014 were a combined 160-116 in 2013 for a winning percentage of .560, and the opponents for the New York Jets this season had a 2013 season of 113-150.

By looking at the numbers and doing the math, it would appear the Patriots would have the tougher schedule that the Jets heading into the 2014 campaign.

Of course, figuring out something on paper is one thing, but once the teams get on the field it is something entirely different.

Another way to gauge the team’s strength of schedule is looking at the opponents they will face and what their expected win totals are projected to be this season and not last year.

This can be done by going to Bovada or topbet and adding up the wins and losses that have been projected for each 2014 opponent and the higher the win totals the tougher season they are expected to face.

The wins totals have been made by the best bookmakers in the industry and should be a very good representation of the probability of each team’s wins and losses as opposed to the teams they faced during the previous season.

Of course, there are other factors involved such as turnovers, which will have a great influence on the outcome of a team’s season, but hard to factor in on betonline or when setting win and loss totals.

Over the past six seasons, only 23 teams with losing records had an overall turnover rate that was on the plus-side meaning they forced more turnovers than they committed.

Just five of them ended up losing more games the next season, while 14 improved and 4 stayed the same, meaning odds are teams will return to the norm after having a season that was out of character.

Another way to figure if a team will be over or under its projected win total is using a combination of turnovers during last year, to number of wins this season.

Over the past two seasons, the top three NFL teams in net plus-turnovers during the course of the regular season fell on average by 2.2 against the spread and 2.4 straight up the following season.

Whereas, the three teams on the bottom improved on average 2.7 games ATS and 2.3 SU.