Alabama 9-point Chalk at Home Against No. 1 Mississippi State

College football enters week 12 with a number of great conference matchups. One such matchup will be in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, when the Alabama Crimson Tide ranked No. 3 in the nation hosts the No. 1 ranked Mississippi Bulldogs.

For Alabama this is a must win if it hopes to play for its fourth national title in the past six years. A win puts then closer to being selected as one of the final four teams for the inaugural College Football Playoff, while a loss all but eliminates them from any hope.

Alabama is currently on the outside looking in, in the most recent College Football Playoff rankings. Mississippi State is No. 1 while Alabama is No. 5.

The ironic thing is that Alabama is favored by 9 points over the No. 1 team in the nation.

The Tide opened as the favorite by 7 points and that number has been bet up during the week to the 9.5 points where it sits at his time, according to information taken from Bovada and

Trends that Must be Looked At

  • Alabama is 7-0 straight up and against the spread in its past 7 games at home versus SEC opponents.
  • The Tide is 6-2 ATS over its past 8 games as a favorite at home.
  • Alabama is 0-5-1 against the number in its past 6 games as a favorite by single digits, but each of those previous six was on the road.
  • This the shortest favorite line at home Alabama has had since November 2011 when they won 9-6 SU, but failed to cover as a 5.5-point favorite against LSU.
  • Mississippi State has lost 11 of its past 13 games head to head with Alabama.
  • The Bulldogs are 2-10 SU over their past 12 games as a dog on the road.
  • The UNDER point total is 11-2-1 over the past 14 games and has cashed in 6 of the past 7 between the two teams.

According to betonline and topbet, most of the betting public has placed their dime on Alabama to cover in this matchup.

Alabama has defeated Mississippi State rather easily in each of the past six games. The Tide in those six games has outscored the Bulldogs 175-41 for an average score of 29-7.

However, against the spread, Alabama is only 4-2 over those same six games.

Mississippi State however will not roll over easy. The Bulldogs are averaging over 522 yards a game, which is No. 6 in the nation and 39 points per games, which is No. 12.

Pick: I lean toward Alabama. The Tide has played four out of its past five games on the road. Mississippi State has played under par the past three games.

The Bulldogs are not familiar with being in these types of pressure situations. I like Alabama 35-21.