NFL Sunday Night Football will feature one of the week’s best matchups when the New England Patriots, the leaders in the AFC East, visit the Indianapolis Colts the leaders in the AFC South.
New England has had Indianapolis’ number of late winning 4 straight head-to-head games with the Colts.
The current line nonetheless has the Colts favored by 3 point with the total points sitting at 58.
The OVER/UNDER of 58 is extremely high. According to Bovada and sportsbook.com, only 11 games in the NFL since 1978 have had a total that closed at 58 or higher.
Twelve games have closed their lines at 57.5 point or higher and 16 have closed at 57 points or higher, according to topbet and betonline.
For games that had a closing total of 57 points or higher the OVER has cashed in 9 of the 16.
A large amount of money has been put down on Indianapolis. The Colts are 6-3 straight up and 7-2 against the spread. However, as a favorite, the Colts have covered in 6 out 8 games and 3 out of 4 played at home.
Indianapolis has had good success defeating top competition playing at home during the three seasons Andrew Luck has been their quarterback.
In 2012, Indy defeated Green Bay and Houston at home and in 2013 defeated both Seattle and Denver at Lucas Oil Stadium.
However, Indianapolis were not the favorites in any of those four games and now Colts supporters much lay 3 to the Patriots
The Patriots at +3 could be an interesting choice. Since 2000, New England is 29-15 ATS when receiving 3 or more points. In 50% of those games, they have won outright.
New England is currently 7-2 SU and 5-4 against the number but over its past 5 games is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS.
New England is also 2-0 SU and ATS over its past two games against Luck. In those two games, the Pats have outscored Luck’s Colts 102-46. Overall, New England is 4-0 SU in its past 4 games versus Indianapolis.
Trends to Consider
- Indianapolis is 17-4 SU and 16-5 ATS when playing at home since 2012.
- New England is 14-5 SU and 12-7 ATS during the month of November since 2009.
- The OVER has cashed in each of the past 5 games between the Pats and Colts.
The two teams are led by two talented quarterbacks. New England’s Tom Brady is a future Hall of Famer who has played exceptionally well the past five games and always plays well in big games.
Andrew Luck leads the league in passing yards this season and is on track to eclipse the record of Peyton Manning set last season for passing yards in one season.
Prediction: Three points is tough. The Pats have played well of late but the Colts are tough at home. The best play is taking the OVER as both team teams are 7-2 to the OVER in the past 9 games and the Patriots are 6-0 on the OVER in their past six games.
Take your pick on the spread, but the OVER is a strong play.