February 2015 – Casino Review

February 28, 2015February 28, 2015

Road Favorites Highlight My NBA Games for Tonight

Detroit (+3.5) at Washington – Both the Pistons and Wizards have chosen poor times to hit losing streaks. Washington has dropped six straight games and eight of their last ten while Detroit has gone just 5-5 over their last ten and has dropped two in a row.

While the Eastern Conference is the weaker of the two conferences, the playoff race is unbeatable. Right now Detroit is in the 12th spot but amazingly, they are just one game out of the eight and final playoff spot. The Wizards are currently in the fifth spot and despite their poor play shouldn’t fall any further than sixth but stranger things have happened.

Trends: Detroit is 1-5 straight up in their last six games on the road… Washington is 0-5 SU in their last five games… The Pistons are 7-3 SU in their last ten games on the road at Washington… The Wizards are 2-8 against the spread in their last ten games versus Detroit.

The Pick: It’s hard not to like the Pistons tonight getting the points as well.

Toronto (-12) at New York – The Knicks have dropped eight of their last 10 games and as you know are now without Carmelo Anthony for the remainder of the season. I’m glad he was able to get so many minutes in the All-Star Game before shutting it down. Did you sense the sarcasm there?

Toronto is feeling heat right now from both the Chicago Bulls and the Cleveland Cavaliers. They have a one half game lead over the Bulls and a one game lead over the Cavs as the teams battle for the second spot in the East. The tight predicament is due to the Raptors four-game losing streak.

Trends: Toronto is 1-4 straight up in their last five games… New York is 1-4-1 against the spread in their last six games… The Raptors are 4-8-1 ATS in their last 13 games on the road… The Knicks are 1-8 SU in their last nine games.

The Pick: This is a good place for the Raptors to get back on track but I like the Knicks getting all those points.

Jeff Teague and the Hawks head to Miami to play the Heat tonight.

Atlanta (-5) at Miami – Lost in all of the discussion about Cleveland’s big win over Golden State is the fact that the Hawks continue to lead the Eastern Conference. They’ve won six of their last ten but they’ve won three straight as they head to South Beach.

The Heat are trying to survive without Chris Bosh as they currently reside in the seventh spot in the East. The problem is that there are five teams within two and a half games of them.

Trends: Atlanta is 21-4 straight up in their last 25 games… Miami is 1-4-1 against the spread in their last six games… The Hawks are 1-5 SU in their last six games on the road in Miami… The Heat are 7-15 SU in their last 22 games at home.

The Pick: I love the Hawks to cover tonight.

Memphis (-5) at Minnesota – Despite winning six of their last ten, the Grizzlies have dropped two in a row and continue to hold down the second seed in the Western Conference. The T-Wolves may have gotten Kevin Garnett back but they have the worst record in the West and Memphis comes in having played well in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.

Trends: Memphis is 2-4 against the spread in their last six games… Minnesota is 8-17 straight up in their last 25 games… The Grizzlies are 6-2 SU in their last eight games on the road in Minnesota… The T-Wolves are 3-14 SU in their last 17 games versus the the Grizzlies.

The Pick: I like Memphis to cover this evening.

February 28, 2015

Bob Knight Says Kentucky Will Not End Undefeated

One question for close to the entire college basketball regular season has dominated: Will the Kentucky Wildcats finished the season undefeated.

Now Kentucky is sitting at 28-0 as it head into Saturday’s big game against No. 18 ranked Arkansas. With 28 games played, the Wildcats need just 12 more wins to match the last college basketball team that finished the season undefeated, Bob Knight’s Indiana Hoosiers in 1976.

The question remains on everyone’s mind, but the odds remain against it.

Bill Self, the Kansas coach whose team lost by 32 points to Kentucky in November said at the time if the Wildcats were still undefeated in February, then a perfect season could happen.

In the 12 games that remain, some should be quite close. Prior to the end of the regular season, the Wildcats much play the Razorbacks, Florida as well as Georgia. Both the Gators and Bulldogs gave Kentucky tough games the first time they played in earlier this month.

Kentucky could play any of those same teams during the SEC tournament or even rivals such as LSU or Texas A&M.

If the Wildcats do make it out of the regular season and SEC tournament unscathed, they would still have to win 6 games of which as many as 4 could be versus ranked teams.

One analytical expert ran a calculation on Kentucky going undefeated and the Wildcats came out with a 24% change of going 40-0, earlier this season.

Kentucky’s odds of ending the regular season undefeated have gone up to over 74% at this point. Its chances of winning the SEC tournament are now 73% and over 48% of winning the national championship, says one basketball expert. Last season, no team entering the tournament had more than a 15% chance of taking home the title.

Most odds makers are giving the Wildcats just a 24% chance of winning the national championship and going undefeated, which is very high for something that has not been accomplish for the past 39 years.

Nevertheless, it will take excellent coaching from head coach John Calipari since his players are between 18 and 22 years of age, with the majority less than 20 and pressure situations, which will only increase as they continue winning, will make it hard on the young players.

February 27, 2015February 26, 2015

Thoughts on the NFL This Weekend Include Hernandez, Peterson and More

I can’t tell you for certain if Aaron Hernandez was the man that pulled the trigger and killed Odin Lloyd but it certainly doesn’t look like he “didn’t” do it either. The former New England Patriot is currently on trial for the murder of Lloyd back in July of last year.

The prosecution has so far done a masterful job of piecing together that events that led to the murder and everything points to Hernandez as at the very least the mastermind if not the actual murderer. So far the prosecution has revealed video of Hernandez with the same type of gun that was used to kill Lloyd.

They’ve also gotten testimony from Hernandez’ fiancee admitting she put a box containing two handguns in the trash. There are several other bits of damaging evidence that have been presented but to this point, it looks like Hernandez will be spending a long time in prison.

Of more importance in this particular case is whether other National Football League players are living lives that are at all similar to Hernandez.’ We know about Ray Lewis and Ray Rice and Rae Carruth and we are now waiting for so-called “damaging” video of Dez Bryant but is there other behavior out there like this? With all that Roger Goodell has on his plate looking into more of these types of behavior should probably be pretty high on the list.

Peterson to be reinstated?

U.S. District Court Judge David Doty ruled that the NFL did not handle things properly in the case involving Minnesota Vikings’ running back Adrian Peterson. The decision allows Peterson to seek reinstatement immediately and may also allow former Carolina Panther Greg Hardy to do the same.

Make not mistake, this ruling doesn’t remove what Peterson did; it just rules that the NFL once again over-stepped its’ bounds in terms of how it and when it can punish players.

Let’s assume that Peterson is indeed allowed to play in 2015 and for my money he should be. It seems unlikely that Peterson will remain in Minnesota after his agent go into a pretty heated exchange with one of the top executives from the Vikings during the NFL Combine. Assuming the Vikes are ready to move on, where would Peterson go?

The easy answer is that Dallas doesn’t keep DeMarco Murray around and brings in the hometown kid in Peterson. If you recall, there was a phone call in which Peterson admitted he’d like to play in Big D so this seems the most likely move.

Death threats for Bostick

I wish I could say I was surprised by this… Former Green Bay reserve tight end Brandon Bostick admitted this week that after his gaffe in the NFC Championship Game in Seattle he received several death threats. Bostick was the guy who went up for the ball on Seattle’s eventually successful on-sides kick and bobbled the ball.

Bostick admitted after the stunning loss that his coaches made it clear that he was not to go after the ball should it come to him. Instead, his job was to be the first line of blockers or “protectors” for the guys behind him who would grab the ball. Bostick did what many of us would do as the ball came directly at him; he leaped high to grab it but couldn’t get a firm grasp of the ball.

The rest as they say is history. What’s sad obviously is that anyone would actually threaten a person’s life over this. Perhaps what they should focus their attention on was the conservative play-calling and inability to stop the Seahawks when they needed to. Maybe that’s what these idiots need to focus on rather than cowardly threatening a football player.

February 27, 2015

Odds Makers Release 2015 Heisman Trophy Futures

With the NBA entering its final stretch to the postseason, college basketball closing in on March Madness, the NHL winding towards the Stanley Cup playoffs and Major League Baseball preparing to open its season in just over a month, many sports fans and bettors might not have college football at the top of their list.

Nevertheless, odds makers never slow down and never put any sport to bed for more than a few hours. This week, the 2015 Heisman Trophy futures were released by on large online bookmaker. The season does not even begin until the latter part of August, but there is nothing like getting a head start and finding a player or players with some value on this futures board.

Last season the prestigious award was won by Oregon Ducks quarterback Marcus Mariota. The junior quarterback won in a landslide but already has entered the 2015 NFL draft.

As is usually the case, the player at the top of the list with the shortest odds to start the Heisman Trophy futures is a quarterback and this year it is TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Trevone Boykin.

The athletic Boykin is a dual threat who can beat defenses through the air with his arm or on the ground with his legs.

After the talented Boykin is Ezekiel Elliott a running back for the Ohio State Buckeyes. Bettors might be indecisive when it comes to backing the talented runner considering there are three of his own teammates on the newly released futures list that will be bet on as well.

Ohio State has three quarterbacks on the list. Braxton Miller is 25 to 1. Miller was supposed to be the starter last season, but injured his shoulder prior to the start of the season and was lost for the year. J.T. Barrett is at 25 to 1 as well. He replaced Miller only to become injured himself late in the season. Cardale Jones is sitting at 15 to 1. He replaced Barrett and helped lead the Buckeyes to the National Championship.

Rounding out the top five with the shortest odds is Dak Prescott the dual threat quarterback for the Mississippi State Bulldogs, Leonard Fournette a running back for the LSU Tigers and Paul Perkins a running back for the UCLA Bruins.

2015 Heisman Trophy Futures

Trevone Boykin (TCU) +750
Ezekiel Elliott (Ohio State) +800
Dak Prescott (Mississippi State) +850
Leonard Fournette (LSU) +1150
Paul Perkins UCLA) +1200
Nick Chubb (Georgia) +1200
Cody Kessler (USC) +1300
Derrick Henry (Alabama) +1400
Samaje Perine (Oklahoma) +140
Cardale Jones Ohio State) +1500

February 26, 2015February 25, 2015

Your Odds for the Host of the 2016 Academy Awards

Last week I took an opportunity to provide you with the odds for the 87th Academy Awards. I supplied the top six categories and gave you my predictions. As the night began, I was immediately batting 1,000 when J.K Simmons won for best supporting actor for “Whiplash.”

From there, my picks were as bad as those by a first grader digging out a booger from his nose.

As you may have seen, this year’s Oscars did not do well. The overall television audience declined by 16% and what that means is that there will be tremendous pressure on the next host. I don’t fault Neil Patrick Harris completely for the drop because this year’s nominees, especially for best picture and best director, were not huge names or major draws at the box office.

The exception was ‘American Sniper’ which has collected over $300 million. Still Harris was not always as entertaining as I’ve seen him when hosting other award shows. So will he return? I don’t think so and neither does Vegas.

Our friends at Bovada have supplied me with the odds on who will be next year’s Academy Awards host.

Who will host the 88th Academy Awards?

Jimmy Fallon 5/2

Ellen DeGeneres 4/1

Tina Fey & Amy Pohler 5/1

All three/four of the top favorites would, and in the case of DeGeneres, have made great hosts of the Oscars but the problem is that the show will once again be on ABC. Fallon, Fey and Pohler have their roots on NBC. TV execs at ABC would not want to give publicity to stars to a rival network.

Jimmy Kimmel would be a fine host and would fit perfectly being an ABC employee.

Jimmy Kimmel 6/1

Kimmel really could be the front-runner for the exact reason I laid out above. He’s an ABC guy who knows the Hollywood game as well as anyone and he isn’t afraid to ruffle feathers of anyone.

Stephen Colbert 12/1

Although Colbert will be on CBS by the time the next Oscars airs, he could still be a strong contender because he tends to lean liberally which fits perfectly with the Hollywood crowd.

Mindy Kaling 16/1

Kevin Spacey 16/1

Bill Murray 16/1

Seth Myers 16/1

The above four contenders all come in at 16/1 and frankly I don’t see any of them doing it. Kaling is well-liked but I don’t see her having enough draw and the same could be said for Myers. Murray would be interesting but it just doesn’t seem like something he would enjoy. Spacey is the most likely of the four. He’s extremely well-respected in Hollywood and is multi-faceted as an entertainer.

Billy Crystal 20/1

Crystal is 66 years old but would be a huge hit as host. He has already hosted nine times and trails only the legendary Bob Hope.

Eddie Murphy 25/1

Chelsea Handler 25/1

Key & Peele 25/1

I think Key & Peele would be funny but I’m not sure they would fit what the Academy looks for in a host. Murphy was scheduled to host the 84th Awards but backed out and that likely eliminates him. Handler would be an absolute riot because she’s fearless but I also think she just doesn’t see herself doing this.

Kevin Hart 30/1

I think Hart has some potential as a long-shot but I’m not sure he has other talents besides being funny and that typically is a pre-requisite.

Neil Patrick Harris 33/1

Aziz Ansari 33/1

John Oliver 33/1

I see Ansari as I do Myers or Kaling; he’s got a nice following but he isn’t enough to make people want to watch. Oliver is another one of these guys who just goes for the laughs and doesn’t care how he gets them but I wonder if he could keep things clean.

My Pick: Crystal. He won’t catch Hope’s record but he deserves a shot to get into double-figures.

February 26, 2015

Golden State vs. Cleveland Could be Preview to NBA Finals

Most sportsbooks are calling the matchup on Thursday night in the NBA between the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers, the most likely matchup for the NBA Finals this season

Most of the shops following the Derrick Rose injury this week, now consider Cleveland an even heavier favorite to win the Eastern Conference.

According to Bovada and sportsbook.com, the Cavaliers are currently -180 to make the NBA Finals and Chicago had been dropped to +1500. Out West, Golden State is +220 to take that conference title.

A Finals pairing between the Cavaliers and Warriors is currently paying +250. The pairings next highest include Cleveland/Oklahoma City at +650, Cleveland/Memphis at +800 and Atlanta/Golden State at +1000.

That makes the game on Thursday in Cleveland even that more of a big deal.

If bookmakers are correct in this matchup between Cleveland and Golden State does end up being a preview to the championship, this game would be the only reference point for the matchup.

The first head-to-head game between the two teams cannot be used as a comparison since star forward LeBron James did not play for Cleveland.

Golden State was victorious in that game 112-94. Golden State enjoyed an edge of 36-3 in points on the fast break and recorded 35 assists on 43 field goals.

The loss at the time was Cleveland’s fourth straight and the Cavs would eventually lose six straight. However, since James returned from two weeks on the sideline Cleveland is 17-2.

Nevertheless, Golden State is 21-5 over its past 26 games overall and has won 16 of 19 games against Eastern Conference opponents.

One the MVP front, Stephen Curry remains at -300, the overwhelming favorite. James is third at +500, with Houston’s James Harden sitting second at +350 and Oklahoma City’s Russell Westbrook in fourth at +1000.

With the consistency Curry has played with all season and the way his team had taken the West by storm and leading the NBA with the best record overall, it will be hard to un-seed him from the top.

Curry scored 51 points on February 4 and is averaging 28 points per game during the month. He scored 32 on Tuesday night after sitting out a game over the weekend with a sore ankle.

Kyrie Irving is a great defender for Cleveland, but Curry was not fazed the first time they met this season as he scored 23 points, had 10 assists and just one turnover.

February 25, 2015February 24, 2015

Thoughts on Tiger Plus the Latest “Storming the Court” Problem

Everyone these days seems to have an opinion on what’s wrong with Tiger Woods. The man who Tiger is chasing in the Major Victories category, Jack Nicklaus, thinks Woods’ problems are “between his ears.”

Former swing coach Butch Harmon, with whom Tiger won eight of his 14 majors with, said recently he’d actually spend time with Woods but that he’ll never call because “his pride will get in the way.” I can’t argue one bit with either Nicklaus or Harmon because I believe both guys to be among the most credible in terms of ‘talking Tiger.’

I honestly don’t know if Woods’ issues are limited to just one thing because I really think what he’s going through is as a volatile cocktail of things ranging from his broken down body, failing swing and mental issues that go far beyond even what the Golden Bear is suggesting.

Paul Azinger mentioned that what Tiger is doing by taking a leave of absence of is the right thing to do. He needs to sort out not only his mental side but also he needs to find the right swing again and the only way he can consistently do that is with practice, not tournament golf.

I do believe however there will come a time when he has to return or else his chances of returning as a top player reduce with every tournament he misses. The great ones need competition not just to better themselves but to thrive and even survive. Woods is exactly the type of player I speak of and he certainly doesn’t need me to tell him that.

Storming the Court Take II

What was it? A year or two ago that Duke Head Basketball Mike Krzyzewski pulled his team off of the floor in the waning seconds of a loss on the road? Remember how many went after Coach K saying this was just another example of the “spoiled Dookies” not being able to take losing?

I defended Krzyzewski at the time and I will again today in the midst of another story about a large contingent of fans rushing the court. Two nights ago in Manhattan, Kansas, the under- .500 Kansas State Wildcats had knocked off arch-rival Kansas and before the final shot had even touched the floor the Wildcats’ faithful were running wild on the hardwood.

To his credit, K-State Head Coach Bruce Weber and his assistants were doing their best to keep the Jayhawks safe until the crowd could disperse but their efforts were essentially fruitless. If you watch the video, you can clearly see students rushing directly to the KU bench to taunt the players. Several are moved out of the way by security personnel while more keep piling on the court.

Conferences like the SEC have adopted rules against students rushing the court. Those include fines against the university in question but that doesn’t always stop the crowds from going bonkers. Personally, I like the storming of the court or field in the case of college football. At least on the gridiron, there is more room and typically opposing players have a sliver more of time to get into the locker room but still, there are dangers.

The overwhelming majority of fans who rush the court mean no harm to the opposition. They run out there to celebrate with other fans and the players but unfortunately there are a small percentage who are rushing the court to instigate problems. Jayhawks’ Head Coach Bill Self said as much when he talked about fans who “chicken wing” players as they rush the court.

Before long, it won’t be a chicken wing but an actual elbow, punch or worse and then the NCAA might actually be forced to act.

February 25, 2015

New NBA Championship Futures See Thunder Rise and Heat and Suns Fall

Odds makers have released the latest futures for the NBA Championship. The Oklahoma City Thunder are playing so well the team has moved into third on the odds board, while teams such as the Miami Heat and Phoenix Suns are rapidly going in the other direction.

Only a week ago, the Thunder was sitting in seventh place on the odds board, but has seen their odds shortened to 60 to 1, which is down from last week’s 12 to 1.

The odds makers are showing a great deal of respect to the Thunder, despite the team holding down only the eighth and final postseason spot in the NBA Western Conference. However, the Thunder has won 7 straight games including wins over the Grizzlies, Mavericks and Clippers last week and picked up three players on the trade deadline to add to their roster.

The futures odds shortened for the Thunder even despite the lingering concerns over the health of Kevin Durant who had what was described as a minor procedure to ease some discomfort on his right foot. The soreness has come from surgery Durant had on his foot in October. It is thought Durant will return prior to the end of the regular season.

Amongst the teams in a free fall of sorts this week on the boards is the Heat. After receiving Goran Dragic in a trade last week, the starting five for Miami looked strong. However, the next day, Chris Bosh was lost for the season with blood clots. Without the best player on the Heat, their odds of winning the NBA title fell to 300 to 1 from last week’s 100 to 1. The Phoenix Suns have lost five straight games and 8 of their past 10 to fall out of the eighth spot in the West and into 10^th. The Suns also dropped to 300 to 1 from 100 to 1 last week.

NBA CHAMPIONSHIP FUTURES
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS 3 to 1
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS 4 to 1
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER 6 to 1
ATLANTA HAWKS 7 to 1
SAN ANTONIO SPURS 8 to 1
CHICAGO BULLS 8 to 1
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES 12 to 1
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS 12 to 1
TORONTO RAPTORS 20 to 1
HOUSTON ROCKETS 30 to 1

February 24, 2015February 23, 2015

Four Games on the NBA Schedule this Evening

With four NBA games on the schedule tonight, why not take a look at each one of them?

Golden State at Washington – The Wizards have slipped to the fifth spot in the Eastern Conference having lost three in a row and eight of their last ten games. There isn’t much concern of missing the playoffs as they have a large lead over the seventh and eighth seeds. Still, with the best team in the league coming to town this could be a good time to get things back on track.

Golden State has won seven of their last ten games and has maintained their 3.5 game lead over second-seeded Memphis in the tough Western Conference. The health of Stephon Curry is in question but it appears just to be a sore ankle he’s dealing with right now.

Trends: Golden State is 1-5 against the spread in their last six games… Washington is 2-8 straight up in their last ten games… The Warriors are 16-7 SU in their last 23 games on the road… The Wizards are 1-4 SU in their last five games at home against the Warriors.

The Pick:

Kevin Love is playing better in recent weeks amid rumors he might be elsewhere in 2015.

Cleveland (-6.5) at Detroit – The Cavs have closed to within one half game of the third-seeded Bulls in the Eastern Conference. They’ve two straight and eight of their last ten games. Their chances of catching the Atlanta Haws for the top seed in the East are impossible with about 25 games to but the second seed isn’t out of the question.

Detroit has won two in a row and six of their last ten to close within one half game of eight seed Brooklyn and within one game of seventh-seeded Miami. The Pistons have to be happy with where they are considering they were given up for dead following the injury to Brandon Jennings.

Trends: Cleveland is 16-2 straight up in their last 18 games… The Pistons are 8-4 SU in their last 12 games against the Cavaliers… The Cavs are 2-4 against the spread in their last six games on the road in Detroit… The Pistons are 1-4 SU in their last five games against the Cavs.

The Pick: I like the Pistons to keep it close tonight.

Indiana (+7) at Oklahoma City – The Pacers have made a really nice run of late winning three-straight and seven of their last ten games. They are dead even with the Pistons and reside in the ninth spot. While the Eastern Conference is much weaker than the West, the chase for playoff positioning may be more exciting in the East.

Just as the Thunder got themselves into the eighth spot in the West, star Kevin Durant is out for at least a week following another procedure on his injured foot. Russell Westbrook can carry the Thunder only so far so if Durant is out for an extended period I see trouble for them down the stretch.

Trends: N/A

The Pick: The Pacers have been hot lately but I like the Thunder behind Westbrook to cover.

Toronto (+3.5) at Dallas – This could be the best game of the night as the Eastern Conference’s second seed comes to Big D. The Mavs are in the sixth spot out West but are actually just one half game out of the third seed.Basically, this is the Western Conference in a nutshell.

Both teams have won seven of their last ten games as the Mavericks look to defend their home court.

Trends: N/A

The Pick: I like Dallas to cover.

February 24, 2015

Who Would No. 1 Seeds Be in NCAA Tournament as of Today

If the college basketball season ended today, who would the four No. 1 seeds be? According to odds on Bovada and topbet, the four top seeds would be Kentucky, Duke, Wisconsin and Arizona.

It is near the beginning of March, which is college basketball’s most important month and just around the bend in less than three weeks is Selection Sunday.

Observers everywhere in college basketball are giving their opinions on what the 2015 Tournament field would consist of and what teams would be the No. 1, 2, 3 seeds and so on. Odds makers are betonline and sportsbook.com have also released their odds on the same.

If the season were to end today, the four top seeds based on odds we be Kentucky, which is 4 to 5 to win the national championship, Wisconsin sitting at 6 to 1, Duke at 10 to 1 and the Virginia Cavaliers at 12 to 1. The overall No. 1 seeds would hands down be the Kentucky Wildcats.

While both Gonzaga and Arizona share the same odds at 12 to 1 as Virginia, the Cavaliers would get the nod over the two because of their power ranking.

Another tie that would have to be broken for a No. 2 seed would be between Villanova and Kansas who are both at 30 to 1 to win the title. That seed would likely go to Villanova based on two things. The power rankings and on Monday night the Jayhawks lost to Kansas State to put their Big 12 regular season championship in jeopardy. Villanova on the other hand has won 8 straight including two over teams that were ranked at the time.

Of course, it is very early for answers to who will be the No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. There are two weeks left of the regular season followed by conference end of the season tournaments and the remaining games along with conference tournament outcomes will influence the selection committee going forward.

Kentucky has a tough game against Arkansas this weekend, while Wisconsin must play No. 14 ranked Maryland Tuesday night. Therefore, anything can still happen to stir up the pot and likely will before it is all over.

Four Projected No. 1 Seeds
KENTUCKY 4 to 5
WISCONSIN 6 to 1
DUKE 10 to 1
VIRGINIA 12 to 1