NFL – Casino Review

February 9, 2015

What Team Will be the Next Long Shot to Win the Super Bowl

Super Bowl 50 is next up for NFL teams following the New England Patriots thrilling win over the Seattle Seahawks. The win by New England was the latest milestone over a remarkable run of 14 seasons.

Since 2001, New England has won the AFC East title 12 times, reached the AFC Championship 9 times, made six appearances in the Super Bowl and won four Vince Lombardi trophies.

At one time however, the Pats were big underdogs. In fact, New England was the last real long shots to win the Super Bowl, a team that came from nowhere to claim a Super Bowl ring.

In 2001, New England won its first Super Bowl over St. Louis. The Rams were heavily favored to win Super Bowl 36. The Patriots that year however were the last NFL champions to have ended their previous season with a record below .500.

The past 12 Super champions, according to Bovada and betonline, including this year’s Pats, all had records of 8-8 or better the year preceding their NFL title. Overall, those same winners of the Super Bowl averaged 11 wins the previous year.

Of the past 25 winners of the Super Bowl, only the 2001 Patriots and the 1999 Rams had losing records in the season prior to their Super Bowl victories.

The Patriots paid out big in 2001 as they entered the season as 50 to 1 long shots to win the title that year.

Not since then has a Super Bowl long shot lifted the Vince Lombardi trophy.

Of the past 25 winners of the Super Bowl, 18 won 10 or more game the season prior to winning the NFL title. According to topbet and sportsbook.com, this just completed season had 12 teams that won 10 games or more including the two entrants in the Super Bowl.

Of those 12 teams, the Arizona Cardinals and Baltimore Ravens are the long shots on the Super Bowl 50 futures board with 30 to 1 odds. Others include Cincinnati at 25 to 1, Detroit at 22 to 1, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh at 20 to 1.

With those odds, Baltimore has the most appeal; they pushed the Patriots to their limit during the divisional playoffs and did that with significant injuries.

However, while a win in the Super Bowl by Baltimore would be a long shot, it would not be a stunning surprise. The Ravens have been perennial contenders and Super Bowl champions.

The biggest sleepers would be the Houston Texans at 50 to 1 and the Buffalo Bills at 60 to 1. Both finished over .500 at 9-7 last season, both have strong defenses and a positive point differential.

February 4, 2015

Odds to Win Super Bowl 50

You’ll notice immediately I used the term ’50’ instead f the Roman numeral ‘L.’ This is because the National Football League recognized the potential issues by having their marquee game represented with a big ‘L.’ This often stands for “loser” or well…. You get the picture.

Anyway with the season officially over, here are your odds for next season already.

Odds to win the 2016 Super Bowl

Seattle Seahawks 5/1 – Can they overcome perhaps the toughest loss in Super Bowl history?

New England Patriots 7/1 – As usual, this team will look different in several areas as they attempt to repeat.

Green Bay Packers 8/1 – Another team struggling to get past a horrible loss. At least it wasn’t in the Super Bowl.

Denver Broncos 10/1 – Keep an eye on this, if Manning doesn’t return, the odds will drop considerably.

Dallas Cowboys 14/1 – Can they repeat the success of this past year and what about Dez Bryant’s contract?

Indianapolis Colts 14/1 – Must solidify the running game and the running defense to build around Andrew Luck.

Philadelphia Eagles 20/1 – Late season swoon should be forgotten as Nick Foles returns under center.

San Francisco 49ers 20/1 – With Harbaugh gone, can Jim Tomsula get Colin Kaepernick back on track and can the defense get younger?

New Orleans Saints 22/1 – Rob Ryan returns despite a brutal defense in 2014 but the offense needs some work too behind an aging Drew Brees.

Pittsburgh Steelers 25/1 – Offense was prolific, but defense needs serious upgrades. Ben Roethlisberger contract situation a top priority too.

Arizona Cardinals 33/1 – Imagine what this team could do with consistent QB play? Larry Fitzgerald contract also an issue.

Baltimore Ravens 33/1 – Ravens blew 14-point lead to eventual champion Pats; pieces are there but depth needed.

Detroit Lions 33/1 – Big step for the entire organization in 2014, but Matthew Stafford must play better on a consistent basis.

Atlanta Falcons 40/1 – Team has addressed defensive liabilities by bringing in Dan Quinn; now the talent must get better.

Carolina Panthers 40/1 – Under .500 division title likely saved Ron Rivera’s job but team must improve in 2015.

Chicago Bears 40/1 – John Fox will bring in some stability but can he do anything to make Jay Cutler better?

Cincinnati Bengals 40/1 – Andy Dalton is now in a must-win situation. Getting to the playoffs is nice, but 0-4 is unacceptable.

Houston Texans 40/1 – Who is the QB entering the season and can J.J. Watt get some help on the defensive end?

Kansas City Chiefs 40/1 – Chiefs must get more out of wide receivers and keeping Justin Houston on D a priority.

Miami Dolphins 40/1 – Somewhat surprisingly, Joe Philbin is back but he’ll need to find more consistency from his entire team.

Minnesota Vikings 40/1 – There’s a lot to like in Minnesota but still many pieces to be put in place by Mike Zimmer.

New York Giants 40/1 – I’m a little surprised to see Tom Coughlin back and his fate will rest on Eli Manning’s shoulders.

San Diego Chargers 40/1 – When is the last time Philip Rivers won a huge game? Chargers’ fans would like to know.

St. Louis Rams 40/1 – If this team gets consistently good QB play are they a team to watch in 2015?

Buffalo Bills 66/1 – Kind of an odd hire in Rex Ryan. Defense wasn’t the problem in Western New York.

Cleveland Browns 66/1 – One QB (Hoyer) is a free agent and wasn’t great. The other QB (Manziel) is now in rehab.

New York Jets 100/1 – Will Todd Bowles stick with Geno Smith or does he have another agenda?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 100/1 – Mariota or Winston? There are risks and rewards for each.

Tennessee Titans 100/1 – If they decide to go QB, they’ll likely be stuck with whoever is left over after Tampa selects.

Washington Redskins 100/1 – My gut tells me Jay Gruden would love to move on from RGIII but he won’t. Can he stay healthy is the question.

Jacksonville Jaguars 200/1 – Don’t be a bit surprised if this team is greatly improved. Skill players needed but there is a decent nucleus.

Oakland Raiders 200/1 – I’m not overly impressed with the Jack Del Rio hire. Someone to groom Derek Carr would have been better.

February 3, 2015

Bookmakers Win on Super Bowl Sunday Thanks to Props

The New England Patriots victory over the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLIX hurt bookmakers. There were many ways the Super Bowl could have ended. However, the combination of New England winning and the OVER was not the one bookmakers were hoping for.

The line over the two weeks between the conference championships and the Super Bowl kickoff fluctuated between Patriots -1 and pick ‘em. However, the comeback victory of 28-24 by New England complicated things for bookmakers at Bovada, betonline, topbet, sportbook.com as well as many other betting establishments.

For many of the books, the majority of cash was on New England and on the OVER. With more money coming in on New England, the books kept the line at -1 or even pick ‘em right up to kickoff.

Seattle had a 10-point lead entering the fourth quarter. For books that looked nice – a Seattle cover and an UNDER. However, that did not happen and when the Seahawks had the opportunity to win, the Patriots intercepted on the goal line on a play that most called questionable that was called by Pete Carroll the Seattle head coach.

Carroll is liked and respected by many of the players on Seattle, but looking at quotes from some players, especially from the defense, it would make you think the Seahawks could implode next season.

Fading losers of Super Bowls the next season is usually a strong bet.

New England in late September was 12 to 1 to win the Super Bowl after losing to Kansas City and dropping to 2-2.

Seattle lost Sunday’s Super Bowl but is 13 t 2 to win next season’s, with New England at 8 to 1 just behind them.

The overall handle missed the record set last year of $119 million as it came in at just under the $116 million mark in Vegas.

One bookmaker took a million dollar bet on New England. The props saved the books from going in the red as they eked out just a $3.3 million win on the game due to the popularity of the props.

The books win of $3.3 million was their lowest since 2011 for a Super Bowl when they took in just $724,175 in the Packers win over the Steelers 31-25.

However, overall the $115.9 million taken in by the Vegas books show that betting on the NFL is as good as it has ever been.

Once the draft is held the books futures will change somewhat, but not as much as when say the NBA holds its draft. Then any trades or offseason free agent signings will have their affect on the futures board. Nevertheless, when next season rolls around in September you can be assured that Seattle and New England will be at or near the top of the futures board for Super Bowl 50.

February 1, 2015

Why New England Will Win Super Bowl XLIX

The New England Patriots will play against the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLIX today in Arizona.

This is the sixth Super Bowl for New England in the past 14 year, which is the most in league history over a span f 15 or fewer years.

New England’s 12 wins during the regular season was the fifth consecutive season of 12 or more wins. The Pats claimed the AFC East division for the eleventh time in 12 seasons.

The offense for New England was No. 4 in scoring at 29.3 points per game. New England played 7 of the league’s top 10 passing defenses with impressive numbers.

Seattle is ranked No. 1 in pass defense. However, of late the Seahawks have played quarterbacks such as Colin Kaepernick, Drew Stanton, Mark Sanchez, Shaun Hill and Ryan Lindley not your lineup of All-Pros at quarterback.

Brady had plenty of time in the pocket this season with the fourth fewest sacks at 26. Seattle’s quarterback Russell Wilson by contrast was sacked 42 times.

Seattle has a strong defensive secondary, but the group is banged up. Earl Thomas one of the safeties, dislocated a shoulder against Green Bay in the NFC Championship and will not be 100%.

This season the Pats won six of its seven games versus playoff teams, with the only loss in Week 13 at Green Bay 26-21.

The Green Bay loss was the only one New England suffered against NFC opponents.

In its six wins against playoff teams, the Patriots scored 34 points or more in each game, including 42 points or more against three AFC teams Denver, Cincinnati and Indianapolis (twice).

Seattle has not played well during this postseason. Carolina was able to out gain them and the game was much closer than the final score. In Seattle’s win against Green Bay, it was more about what Green Bay did wrong to give away the NFC Championship. The Packers controlled the game from start to finish, but failed miserably on several occasions to put the game out of reach of Seattle.

Seattle cannot afford to start slow or turn the ball over against the potent offense of New England. Seattle will likely not score 16 points from special teams and its defense as it did in last season’s Super Bowl rout of Denver.

New England is 20-4 ATS in games with point spreads between -3 and +3.

The last time the teams met head to head Seattle won 24-23, but New England held Marshawn Lynch to just 41 rushing yards. In five games against New England in his career, including while at Buffalo, Lynch is averaging just 53 yards per game.

The defense for Seattle has a hard time with tight ends. Can you say Rob Gronkowski?

Take New England 27-24.

January 31, 2015

UNDER Looks Solid for Super Bowl XLIX

As promised today’s storyline will be why the UNDER could cash in Sunday’s Super Bowl XLIX between the AFC Champion New England Patriots and the NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks.

The Super Bowl odds makers are receiving much more action to date on the UNDER bringing the opening line from 49 down to 47.

Much of that is due to the strength of the Seattle defense the last eight games. The Seahawks have allowed just 78 points over their past 8 games played overall, but 39 of those have been in their last two playoff games.

According to Bovada and betonline, the majority of wagering on the Super Bowl will take place between late Friday and Sunday’s kickoff.

According to topbet and sportsbook.com, last year’s Super Bowl opened at 48.5 and was bet down to 47.5 points and this season’s game is very similar.

Why the UNDER is a Good Play

In the two previous Super Bowls played in Arizona, both cashed on the UNDER.
New England has only scored 17 points in each of its past two Super Bowls,
Seattle has played in just two Super Bowls, allowing 21 points in Super Bowl XL and eight last season in Super Bowl XLVIII.
Despite leading the league in scoring, the Patriots on the road average just 25.5 point per game compared to Gillette Stadium at 34.4 points per game.
In its past three games away from Gillette Stadium the Patriots games have all cashed on the UNDER.
Similar to the Patriots, Seattle’s last game on the road was December 21. The Seahawks in their past three road games have given up a combined 23 points, with the UNDER going 2-1.
Seattle was the league leader in points allowed at 16.3 per game during the regular season, while New England was No. 6 at 17.2 per game.
Seattle is impressive in giving up points in the second half. In its past eight games, Seattle has given up a combined 23 points during the second half. Seattle has won each of the eight while covering 7 of the 8.
The highest point total Seattle has had all season was 48. That occurred on two occasions with both games cashing on the UNDER.
Under Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, the UNDER is 17-11 during the postseason for the Patriots, which includes the UNDER of 4-1 in the Patriots five previous Super Bowls with Brady/Belichick.
The one game that cashed OVER of the past five Super Bowls the Patriots have played in was the lowest total they have played to at 38 points.
New England beat Carolina 32-29 in 2004 in that game. Two of the quarters in that game were scoreless, while two others featured 24 and 37 points scored.

January 30, 2015January 29, 2015

Breaking Down Super Bowl XLIX

My favorite part of the the two weeks leading up to the playing of the actual Super Bowl is… The playing of the actual Super Bowl.

On Sunday night, we will be able to finally stop worrying about deflate-gate, what Marshawn Lynch says or doesn’t say and whether Idina Menzel has messed up the national anthem or not. In short, it will finally be time to play football.

Choosing who to go with in Super Bowl XLIX has not been easy. There are so many factors that must be considered for both teams and of course we can never predict turnovers or how the game is called by the officials. Nevertheless, I think I have a good read on this game so see whether you agree or not by reading on.

Super Bowl XLIX New England Patriots (-2) vs Seattle Seahawks (O/U 47.5) – Let’s take everything off the field off the table. That means let’s focus on the two teams and not deflate-gate or Marshawn Lynch’s hat.

Tom Brady is making his sixth start in a Super Bowl and he’s lost his last two which were both against the New York Giants. In the prior five Super Bowls, the game has come down to the final drive and I feel this one will be no different.

If we analyze both of the Patriots’ losses, the Giants were able to get consistent pressure up the middle on Brady and most of that pressure came from just the front four defensive linemen. The Seahawks are significantly better than the Giants were in the secondary but can they get the same type of pressure the Giants did?

My assumption is that the Patriots will learn from Denver’s struggles last year in the Super Bowl and they will not abandon the run. The problem is whether Josh McDaniels chooses to use LeGarrette Blount or another running back like Jonas Gray. Seattle must also decide how they are going to cover Rob Gronkowski. Will they attempt to keep a linebacker on him or will Kam Chancellor or Earl Thomas be stuck with that assignment?

When the Seahawks are on offense, they will know that Bill Belichick typically likes to take away his opponent’s best player. Common sense points us to that being Russell Wilson or Marshawn Lynch. Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell will be prepared and I think you’ll see more read-option from Seattle than we’ve seen recently from them this season.

If they find any success with that, the passing game will open up, especially on the edges and to the tight ends. Will that be enough to keep New England on it’s heels defensively?

Obviously the one area we can’t forget is special teams. Turnovers or major mistakes here are likely to be disastrous as close as I expect this game to be.

Trends: The total has gone UNDER in six of New England’s last eight games… Seattle is 6-2 straight up in their last eight games against New England… The Patriots are 2-6 against the spread in their last right games against the Seahawks… Seattle is 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games.

Key Injuries: NE C Brian Stork QUES/Knee, CB Brandon Browner QUES/Knee… SEA S Earl Thomas QUES/Shoulder

The Pick: No one holds a lead as well as the Seahawks but I think they will fall behind early. Tom Brady has an opportunity to seal his legacy as an all-time great with a win and to do it, he’ll need a touchdown to win the game late. I think Seattle takes its’ first lead in the second half and holds on to win 27-23. Take the Seahawks and the points and take the OVER.

January 29, 2015

Public Still Behind Patriots, Sharp Money On Seahawks

While the New England Patriots -1 has been the consensus line across most sportsbooks both online and in Vegas, with most of the early money on the Patriots, one bookmaker still believes things will move in the opposite direction as the Sunday kickoff starts to approach.

At online bookmakers such as Bovada and topbet, as much as 2.5 times more action has been taken on New England than on Seattle.

Most of the public is still high on the Patriots but many odds makers believe the point will arrive when money starts showing up on the weekend for the Seahawks. The quiet before the storm is how is happens during the two week period between the conference championships and the Super Bowl.

Once Friday arrives, things will change, according to online bookmakers betonline and sportsbook.com.

One bookmaker said he has had just on bet of six-figures for the Super Bowl thus far and that was for New England.

However, he said sharp money was favoring Seattle. So the thought is that the public was start to realize the same team that routed Denver in the Super Bowl last year is back again and their defense is still No. 1 in the league.

Some bookmakers moved the line from Patriots -1 to -1.5 and finally began taking money for Seattle, which prompted them to move it back down to Patriots -1.

A large amount of sharp action at New England -1.5 caused the bookmaker to move the line back down.

On the point total, the number is continuing to be bet down. Almost every bookmaker has the total sitting at 48, but a few here and there have it at 47.5.

It is anticipated that public money will go OVER and that could prompt bookmakers to move it back up to 48 or even 48.5.

Sharp money has taken the UNDER. The line opened as high as 49 and it has dropped to 48.5 and to 48, with a few at 47.5. However, books tend to stay on the high side since the public likes the OVER. However, the pros are definitely taking the UNDER.

The Super Bowl parties will start Sunday across the country in bars and homes from coast to coast, as the single most popular sporting event in the U.S. prepares to kickoff.

Bookmakers are expecting a surge in action from the public starting Friday and not letting up until just before the opening kickoff on Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET from University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

January 27, 2015

Super Bowl XLIX– Early Bettors Hitting the UNDER

The betting action on the Super Bowl slowed during this past weekend and the most recent movement shows the New England Patriots as 1-point favorites, while the point total has been bet down from 49 to 48 and some online books such as Bovada and sportsbook.com have it as low as 47.5.

The UNDER has been coming in strong on the total and finally books have moved it down. As the game approaches, the number could go even low and sharp money is holding out until the end when they might jump in on the OVER, according to topbet and betonline.

Last season a record was set for Las Vegas with $119 million wagered on Super Bowl XLVIII. Thus far, the handle looks to be a bit less, but there are still five days before kickoff. The money is coming in at a rate of 2 to 1 on the Patriots.

The impact due of deflate-gate is not that big, but has caused some emotional bettors to move away from New England.

Last season not only did much of the public think Denver had the better team, but emotionally they liked Peyton Manning and wanted him to win.

In this Super Bowl, after watching New England destroy Indianapolis, most thought New England and coach Bill Belichick were untouchable, but nobody besides hardcore fans of New England are on their side at this point.

The handle will definitely pick up on Friday and into the weekend all the way up to Sunday’s late afternoon kick off.

The Seahawks are hoping that cornerback Richard Sherman will be healthy enough to play and be effective in the game.

New England is hoping the controversy over the deflated footballs will not be a distraction to players from the game, while Seattle is quietly hoping it will be.

Defensively, the Seahawks are not as good as last season, but have played well the past 8 games. They have allowed just 78 points in the past 8 games played and could make it hard for Tom Brady and the Patriots to put points on the board, unless the run game for New England can put the defense back on its heels. If Seattle is able to pressure Brady up the middle, it could be a long day for New England.

On the offense, bettors must decide which rushing attack will win the time of possession and have more rushing yards. Even with the NFL turning into more of a passing game on offense, teams that have rushed for more yards than their opponents and won the time of possession in the Super Bowl have been very successful.

January 26, 2015January 25, 2015

Some Super Bowl Betting History for You to Consider

As we have now entered the official “Super Bowl” week, I think it’s important to share some history of betting the big game. Obviously, there is no event in America that has more action in a given year than the Super Bowl.

The amount of money wagered on this game every winter is enough to run most nations for a calendar year if not longer. If you are going to be one of those millions of folks who are going to lay money on the championship of American Professional Football then let’s check the history books for some perspective and analysis. Any piece of information you can get your hands on is is crucial.

Favorites in the Super Bowl have gone 33-15 straight up in the previous 48 games. They are also 26-18-2 against the spread. The National Football Conference holds a 26-22 advantage and has won five of the last seven Super Bowls.

The largest upset in the game came way back in Super Bowl III when the New York Jets defeated the Baltimore Colts 16-7. The Jets entered as 18-point underdogs.

In terms of the Over/Under, the Over has ruled in 25 of the 48 games. Super Bowl I did not have an O/U so means the Under was the right play 22 times. The Over has won three of the last four and is tied with the Under with five victories each in the last ten Super Bowls.

In terms of the recent history of underdogs, they have won six of the last seven Super Bowls including last year when Denver entered as a -2.5 point favorite over the Seahawks. The only favorite to win during that stretch was Green Bay in Super Bowl XLV.

The most infamous Super Bowl in terms of betting was Super Bowl XIII. This was the second of three Super Bowl meetings between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Dallas Cowboys. The Steelers opened at -4.5 but as the game neared, it fell to -3.5 with heavy action on Dallas. The Steelers were victorious 35-31 so Vegas bookies were hit hard.

Many bettors took the Cowboys on that early -4.5 line while many jumped on the Steelers when it went to -3.5. This has since been known as “Black Sunday” to many in the sports gambling business.

As we move our focus to this year’s game, our friends at Bovada currently have the New England Patriots listed as two-point favorites over the defending champion Seattle Seahawks.

If we look at the pattern over the last ten Super Bowls we can come up with the following:

If we like the Patriots as the favorite at -2, then your chances are strong. Winning 33 of 48 is pretty solid.

If we like the AFC team (the Patriots), then we might want to move towards Seattle.

If we are talking about playing the Over/Under then we are going to suggest the Over based on recent results. If we go based on all of the Super Bowls, then this decision really does come down to a coin flip as we’re very nearly at 50%.

Since 2000, the NFC has been the Super Bowl favorite only four times. The St. Louis Rams twice (1-1), the Packers (1-0) and the San Francisco 49ers (0-1). Outside of the Packers win, the other three times saw the Rams not cover against the Titans, the Niners lose straight up to Baltimore and the Rams losing straight up to the Patriots.

With all that swirling around these Patriots, you have to ask yourself whether it will galvanize them or ruin them? That said, you must still look at the history because it tells an awful lot.

January 23, 2015

Super Bowl Facts and Figures

Super Bowl XLIX kicks off on Sunday February 1 in Glendale, Arizona at University of Phoenix Stadium between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots.

Before the kickoff, bettors will have loads of data to peruse to help them decide the best opportunity they will have to walk away a winner at the betting window.

Here are a number of Super Bowl facts to consider.

New England has not won the Super Bowl in 10 seasons. In each of New England’s three Super Bowl victories, the team built leads of double-digits during the game. In each of their four losses, the Patriots never had a lead of over 8 points.
The Patriots were OVER in 11 games this season. However, against four NFC opponents, the Patriots were over only once.
Tom Brady the star quarterback for the Patriots wears No. 12. Including the five Super Bowls he has played in, quarterbacks sporting No. 12 on their jerseys are 14-12 in Super Bowls, with the last winner being Aaron Rodgers in Super Bowl XLV for Green Bay.
This is the 13^th appearance by a team currently playing in the NFC West. The previous 12 were 7-5.
Head coaches that are appearing for the second time in the Super Bowl have an all-time record of 14-8. This is Pete Carroll’s second trip.
In the previous 48 Super Bowls, the underdog has won outright 15 times. The largest upset was in 1969 in Super Bowl III when the Baltimore Colts lost to the New York Jets 16-7. The Jets were underdogs by 18 points.
Seattle gave up 16.3 points per game this season, which was No. 1 in the NFL. Seattle was also the league leaders last season in scoring defense.
Seventeen Super Bowls have been played inside a dome or a stadium with a retractable roof. In those 17 games, the favorite is 12-5 straight up and 9-6-2 against the spread. The UNDER has gone 10-7.
Brady and Bill Belichick have won 20 postseason games since 2001. Over that span of playoff appearances, New England is 20-8 SU but just 12-15-1 ATS.
In its past eight games played, Seattle has given up a combined 78 points. Seattle is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in those eight games.
The OVER has cashed 24 times in the previous 48 Super Bowls. In the last four Super Bowls, the OVER is 3-1.
Quarterbacks have won the Most Valuable Player in the Super Bowl 26 times and four of the past five.
Seattle allowed just 27 touchdowns in their 16 regular season games, which was second in the league. In the postseason, they have allowed three with none on the ground.