Jim Harbaugh – Casino Review

December 31, 2014

Michigan Gets Their Man; More College Football Thoughts

University of Michigan Interim Athletic Director Jim Hackett made it very clear in the days following the firing of Brady Hoke; having a “Michigan man” was no longer a top priority.

There was always an exception to that rule and his name was Jim Harbaugh. Yesterday, Harbaugh became the 20th head football coach of the Wolverines. There is no one more “Michigan man” than Harbaugh who started at quarterback from 1984-1986 for the Bo Schembechler -led teams who were so successful.

I must admit I’m surprised Harbaugh spurned the National Football League and especially for less money than what he could have gotten from just about any of those teams. I think that two things played a major factor in his decision however.

Number one is that of the available NFL jobs, none had a quarterback that Harbaugh really wanted to work with and that’s vitally important for the old QB because as we know he can flat-out coach quarterbacks (see Andrew Luck). The Raiders and Jets both have young signal-callers but neither was enticing enough for Harbaugh.

The argument could be made that both Atlanta and Chicago have good, veteran quarterbacks in Matt Ryan and Jay Cutler but each have their issues.

The second reason Harbaugh chose to leave the NFL is because I really feel he was tired of seeing what was happening to his alma mater an the call to come home and fix it was too great.

Michigan fans will once again pack the seats at Michigan Stadium to see the prodigal son return and he will make the program prominent once again but I caution them this; the desire to win a Super Bowl never leaves you as a player or coach if you’ve had a taste of it and Harbaugh has. I believe his stint in Ann Arbor will be five years or less because that desire will be too strong to avoid.

Bowl Game Bullets

-What on Earth has happened to Bob Stoops and Oklahoma? They were a preseason top five team who ended up finishing with five losses following a humiliating 40-6 loss to Clemson in the Russell Athletic Bowl. That score wasn’t indicative of how poorly Oklahoma played either. It was 40-0 after three quarters and Clemson pretty much emptied the bench in the final stanza. I have a feeling Stoops falls into that category of having been in the same place too long.

-I could be way off base here, but I think the Pac-12’s success in these early bowl games is a sign that Florida State better strap it up tomorrow when they face Oregon in the Rose Bowl. After Stanford’s 45-21 drubbing of Maryland last night in the Foster Farms Bowl, the Pac-12 moved to 4-0 in bowl season making them the only unbeaten conference remaining. Let’s face it – the level of competition between the ACC and Pac-12 wasn’t really a discussion topic anyway was it?

-As if I needed any more proof for my personal war against instant replay reviews in football I give you the LSU-Notre Dame game. Mad Hatter Les Miles went for a fake field goal and replays clearly showed the ball breaking the plane of the goal line but officials concluded it was disputable because of where the knee was. Here’s the thing, if the knee was down the play is over based on where the ball is when the knee touches right? The ball was over the goal line. If you can’t get replay right that you shouldn’t use it.

-Have a great New Year’s Eve and be safe people.

December 27, 2014December 27, 2014

Intriguing NFL Storylines for the Final Week of the Season

The 2014 National Football League Season comes to an end this weekend and while you can find all the playoff scenarios at nfl.com, I’m looking at those but also a lot more. Let’s get rolling.

Monday is of course now known as “black Monday” because this is typically the day that NFL coaches who are on the hot seat are in fact fired. My expectation is that you’ll see several coaches packing up their offices.

If I’m a betting man, I have to believe Rex Ryan is finally out in New York although there are arguments to be made that General Manager John Idzik is a bigger problem. I also believe Tony Sparano will be removed as the Raiders’ interim tagged coach and will be looking for new employment. I his case, it’s hard to to avoid the decent success his team has had but I believe the Raiders will look elsewhere.

Also on the chopping block will be Mike Smith in Atlanta if the Falcons lose tomorrow. Even if they advance to the playoffs I expect him to be gone unless they make a miraculous run to the Super Bowl.

The biggest name will of course be Jim Harbaugh. Michigan officials were reportedly already in San Francisco yesterday and will be at Harbaugh’s door as soon as the official word comes down that he is fired. Reports are that that will come very soon after the Niners’ final game. My feeling is that the 49ers are making a mistake. Harbaugh has been hugely successful and rescued this franchise from mediocrity. If anyone should go it’s the GM Trent Baalke but it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen.

Other potential unemployed coaches: Tom Coughlin, Marc Trestman, Jeff Fisher, Doug Marrone

A.J. Green went for over 200 yards last time the Bengals faced the Steelers. Can he do it again?

Three Division Champs to Be Crowned Sunday

In the AFC, Pittsburgh hosts Cincinnati at Heinz Field on Sunday night in the final game of the regular season. The winner gets the AFC North title and a home playoff game next week while the loser hits the road to open the postseason.

In their first meeting three weeks ago, the Steelers scored 25 points in the fourth quarter to win 42-21. I expect a much closer game this time around but you have to like the Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger who plays well at home especially late in the season.

In Green Bay, a similar situation exists. The Packers host the Lions and the winner earns the NFC North title and possibly a top seed in the NFC while the loser becomes the fifth or sixth seed and starts the playoffs on the road. While the chances exist for Detroit to to be anywhere from a one-seed to a six-seed, they have to get past the Packers in Green Bay.

The last time the Lions won at Lambeau Field was 22 years ago when Rodney Peete was the quarterback and Barry Sanders was the running back. Matthew Stafford has to play better for the Lions to have a chance Sunday.

Last but not least is the showdown in Atlanta where it’s all or nothing for the Falcons and Panthers. A win gets either into the playoffs while the loser goes home and possibly looks for a new coach. The winner of the NFC South will also become the second team since the 1970 merger to win a division with a record under .500 and will create more discussion about re-seeding for the playoffs.

In all likelihood, the Falcons or Panthers will host a team with at least three or four more wins then they have and that doesn’t sit well with many. Take the Falcons with the home-field advantage tomorrow.

December 19, 2014December 18, 2014

Michigan Moves on Harbaugh; Ramifications are Many

Well, there it is. The University of Michigan is doing their absolute best to bring home Jim Harbaugh. By now you probably already know what the contract offer looks like, six years and $48 million, but there’s a lot more to this story now than just the money.

Here’s a look at the ramifications of just the offer being thrown out there.

For Harbaugh – This offer immediately makes NFL teams prizing his services take notice. At eight million per year, it’s not out of the range for an NFL team to pay, but it does make it a little harder.

It’s believed that Oakland Raiders’ Owner Mark Davis will pay this much and more in an effort to get Harbaugh to come across the bay. There’s even a report Davis was willing to pay Jon Gruden as much as $16 million so eight is a drop in the bucket.

Harbaugh is clearly in the cat-bird seat while this unfolds. His team is out of the playoffs so his focus can pretty much be wherever he wants it to be. I expect the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins to be in play for him.

Don’t forget that Dolphins’ owner Stephen Ross is a Michigan Alum with an endless bank account.

Michigan Interim Athletic Director Jim Hackett did the right thing by going after Harbaugh now but will it work?

For Michigan – The school has obviously made it known they are no longer willing to be the punching bag for Michigan State and Ohio State and anyone else beating the Wolverines these days. This kind of money says only one thing; “We want success now.”

The problem is dealing with the letdown of a potential Harbaugh pass. The only way that pain is tempered is if Michigan goes and gets a current head coach of a program that no one sees coming. A guy like Gary Patterson or Mark Helfrich or Kevin Sumlin.

Regardless of who it is, anyone not named “Jim Harbaugh” will be a letdown to the vast majority of the fan base.

For Other College Coaches – If you heard a loud ring coming from Tuscaloosa, Alabama last night that wasn’t just yours ears. That was Nick Saban’s agent calling Alabama to demand a raise.

There’s no way that Saban is going to be paid less than a guy who has won very little at the collegiate level and especially way less than he has. This effect will be a trickle-down one too. Guys like Jimbo Fisher, Urban Meyer and Mark Dantonio will also be looking for raises.

Even if Harbaugh goes in another direction and leaves Michigan hanging, those numbers aren’t going to go away. There isn’t a college coach in America who hasn’t had his eyes pop out from that offer.

For the 49ers – If I’m owner Jed York and I see how in demand my coach is and he has one year left on his deal, I’m increasing the price for his services. Common thought was that it might take a couple of third-round picks to get him out of his final year.

Now? I’m asking at least a first-round pick and then the negotiations can begin from there. York can’t let him go for nothing.

My Prediction: I honestly believe Michigan means a lot to Harbaugh but he’s not coming back. He’s spent nearly all of his coaching career on the West Coast and appears to be very vested in his family and their wishes.

This doesn’t mean he won’t listen to the Jets or Dolphins but right now I think Harbaugh either stays in San Francisco or goes across the bay. The lure of the Super Bowl title is too much for him to ignore.

December 17, 2014December 16, 2014

Wednesday Bullets to Power You Through the Day

It’s been a few weeks since I gave you my patented bevy of random bullets from the sports world so without further ado let’s get on with it.

-While it appears that we are a step closer to the long awaited match between Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather, Jr, I still can’t help but wonder what might have been. Five years ago this could have been a bout that could have saved boxing but instead, arguments over money continue to hamper a once-proud sport. Ya, this will draw money if it happens but it will be a shadow of what it could have been.

-The Dallas Cowboys are 10-4 and have a game advantage on the Philadelphia Eagles. Sunday night though star running back DeMarco Murray suffered a broken hand that led to surgery on Monday. The question is, should they rest Murray or play him with a playoff spot still not yet sealed? If it’s me, I rest him. You have more than enough talent to get a win over Indy or Washington without him.

-For all of the things that the National Basketball Association has going right for it, once thing that needs to be addressed is tanking. There is no way the Philadelphia 76ers haven’t been built for total futility this season. This isn’t to say the current players aren’t trying but this team could have been better and it isn’t.

-I have a feeling Michigan fans are in for really bad news. Despite rumors yesterday that with Jim Harbaugh out of the playoffs he’d be coming to Ann Arbor, I’m not buying it. His services will never be more in demand by NFL teams than they are now and that means a pretty price tag. I just don’t see him giving that up to return to college coaching.

-Yankees’ General Manager Brian Cashman says that as of right now Alex Rodriguez will be penciled in as the team’s designated hitter. A-Rod is of course coming off his year-long suspension.

-There were two plays in the NFL on Sunday that epitomized just how pathetic the league has gotten in their protection of quarterbacks. In Seattle, a 49ers players unloaded on Russell Wilson as he let the ball go. The tackler put his helmet right in the chest of Wilson and was flagged. This was nothing however compared to the Steelers’ Jason Worilds who sacked Atlanta’s Matt Ryan with what can only be described as a “perfect form tackle.” Ryan should have been flagged for not seeing Worilds coming to his play-side in my opinion.

-Watching Army-Navy never gets old. It isn’t just the tradition and the rivalry either. If you’ve been around long enough, then you know how exciting option football can be.

-I had a lot of people laughing at me for picking the Bills to beat the Packers last weekend but I could just see it coming. The Packers and Aaron Rodgers had been so hot, especially at home and with Buffalo’s very strong defense I just thought it was a perfect storm. A blind squirrel finds a nut once in awhile right?

-Michigan State Junior Quarterback Connor Cook Stated yesterday that he will be returning to East Lansing for his senior season. Cook has been considered one of the top junior QBs in the country since his rise last season in leading the Spartans to the Rose Bowl. In my opinion, I think this is the right move for him.

-I’m old enough to know that everyone has different tastes and likes and dislikes but I don’t know how anyone can watch ESPN’s First Take. Stephen A. Smith and Skip Bayless are like nails on a chalkboard to me.

November 5, 2014November 4, 2014

Three Teams Trending Down in the NFL

What we know about the National Football League is that this isn’t the same NFL many of us remember from 10 to 20 to 30 years ago. Teams can go from looking like the greatest teams in the history of the league one week to the worst team ever allowed on a football field.

While there are certainly teams trending upwards right now, there are also teams heading in the wrong direction. Here’s a look at a few of those teams.

San Francisco (4-4) – The 49ers hit rock bottom this past Sunday with yet another home loss this time to St. Louis. It wasn’t even that they lost but moreso in how they lost. With essentially three shots to beat the Rams from the goal line, San Francisco failed to give the ball to their workhorse Frank Gore even once.

Eventually, Colin Kaepernick mishandled a snap and James Laurinaitis came up with the ball to preserve the Rams’ 13-10 victory. 49ers’ legend Jerry Rice said this week that thinks “Jim Harbaugh will not be coaching this team next year.” Rice is not alone in his thinking. It’s no secret that Harbaugh and the general manager don’t exactly get along.

It doesn’t help calm things down either with Harbaugh’s alma mater Michigan potentially looking to hire him as their next head coach. The team expects to get pass rusher Aldon Smith back from suspension as early as next week and he will help but he won’t do much for an offense that is suddenly struggling to find its’ way.

It was not a good day in Miami for Philip Rivers and the Chargers.

San Diego (5-4) – Remember about a month ago when the San Diego Chargers had already racked up a win over defending Super Bowl Champion Seattle? There was much talk that the Chargers were prepared to take on the Denver Broncos for AFC West supremacy. There was also a great deal of discussion about the potential MVP-candidacy of quarterback Philip Rivers.

Things change quickly in life and the NFL is no different. The ‘Bolts have suffered three straight defeats and their most recent one has the potential to bury them for the remainder of the season. After divisional losses to Denver and Kansas City, the Chargers were steam-rolled by the Miami Dolphins 37-0. So bad was it, that Rivers was actually pulled from the game in the second half.

With so many teams above .500 in the AFC, the Chargers cannot afford to fall back any further.

Dallas (6-3) – The Cowboys opened the season with a frustrating home loss to San Francisco. They then reeled off six straight wins behind a powerful offensive line and the running of DeMarco Murray. Signaling just how important he is to the Cowboys, Tony Romo went down against the Washington Redskins with a back injury.

Although he returned to the game, he was obviously not the same QB and the Cowboys lost. This past Sunday Romo was forced to sit because of the injury and in his place was Brandon Weeden who struggled from the start as Dallas lost to the best team in football right now the Arizona Cardinals.

Romo has flown with the team to London for their game against Jacksonville but I don’t believe he will play. With their bye week coming after this game, Jerry Jones knows Romo’s health is of paramount concern. Should Romo continue to struggle with his health then I see the Cowboys continuing their slide.

February 25, 2014February 24, 2014

NFL Thoughts for Tuesday

The last time a trade was made in the National Football League involving a head coach was when Oakland traded Head Coach Jon Gruden to Tampa Bay in 2002. If you’ll recall, late Raiders’ owner Al Davis had grown tired of Gruden’s West Coast offense and desired a more down-field passing game.

Gruden was traded for the Buccaneers’ first round draft picks in 2002 and 2003 plus a couple of second rounders and $8 million in cash. He would lead the Bucs to a Super Bowl Championship in his first season in Tampa Bay.

Apparently we were very close to having yet another head coach traded across the country as the Cleveland Browns admitted they flirted with trading for Jim Harbaugh of the San Francisco 49ers.

While the 49ers have claimed this either didn’t happen or never got serious, Browns’ owner Jimmy Haslem validated the stories that had been emerging about the potential trade.

My take is that the Browns did indeed poke around and explore the possibility but I don’t think it got all that serious. Cleveland would have been in a very good position with which to negotiate because of their numerous high picks over the next couple of years.

While Harbaugh himself called the story “Ridiculous,” would the move have really been that bad for him?

The Super Bowl window in San Francisco is closing. His quarterback Colin Kaepernick is a year away from a big contract and his defense is aging rapidly at many key positions. Anquan Boldin and Frank Gore are both on the down-side of their careers despite still putting up big numbers.

In Cleveland, the defense is young and has potential while the receiving corps is pretty talented. If Harbaugh could just take his QB with him, it wouldn’t be a bad deal if you really think about it.

Furthermore, one has to wonder why the 49ers would even consider the possibility although they are claiming they didn’t. Are they perhaps tired of the near misses? Are they embarrassed by his sideline antics?

Adam Muema's NFL chances took a severe hit when he left the Combine for religious reasons.

Who knows? All I can say about this entire situation is that it isn’t happening so let’s move on.

Religion Leads to Combine Absence

San Diego State running back Adam Muema was projected to be a mid to late round draft pick in May’s NFL Draft. There’s a good chance he won’t get drafted at all after the leaving the combine before participating because ‘God’ told him to do so. I’m not in the business of telling anyone how or who or what to believe in so to each their own when it comes to religion.

It would have been one thing had Muema just said ‘God’ told him to leave and that were the end of it, but he took it further by saying “[God] told me to sit down, be quiet, and enjoy the peace,” according to U-T San Diego. Muema’s dream is apparently to play for the Seattle Seahawks and he is taking God’s message as the only way for that dream to come true.

The sad reality is that Muema is not only costing himself a shot at a decent NFL contract but he is potentially costing himself a chance to ever play pro football period. While there are certainly more important things than that out in the world, the sanity of Muema must be questioned.

I find it interesting that with all the focus on Johnny Manziel’s off-field antics and Michael Sam being gay, very little attention will be paid to a guy who probably needs the right kind of attention the most.

September 6, 2013September 5, 2013

Jim Harbaugh Whining Yet Again

San Francisco 49ers’ Head Coach Jim Harbaugh is known to National Football League fans as a very good football coach. He is also known as a total whiner and looks like a toddler throwing a temper-tantrum on the sideline nearly every week. Just when I thought the NFL was ready to turn a corner with the recently settled lawsuit pertaining to head injuries, I was wrong.

Coach Harbaugh was obviously upset about the comments this week by Green Bay linebacker Clay Matthews. The all-pro player was asked on ESPN’s Mike and Mike about playing against teams that run the read option in terms of how to stop it. His answer was straight out of previous decades of pro football and did not even create the slightest reaction from either Mike Greenberg or Mike Golic. The following were Matthews’ comments…

“One of the things that the referees have told us is that when these quarterbacks carry out the fakes, they lose their right as a quarterback, a pocket-passing quarterback, the protection of a quarterback,” Matthews said. “So with that, you do have to take your shots on the quarterback, and obviously they’re too important to their offense.

“If that means they pull them out of that type of offense and make them run a traditional, drop-back, pocket-style offense, I think that’s exactly what we’re going for. So you want to put hits as early and often on the quarterback and make them uncomfortable.”

What Matthews said is no different than the late Raiders’ coach and owner Al Davis used to tell his team. “The other team’s quarterback must go down.” I don’t recall opposing coaches whining about that statement. The difference between the two ideas that Davis’ comments were in general and Matthews’ were in regard to a specific offensive play.

Harbaugh took Matthews’ comments as if he were stating that Niners’ QB Colin Kaepernick was the one being targeted and then when on to compare what was said to Bounty Gate.

According to the rules on hitting a quarterback, if he should be part of such a play where he is carrying out a fake, and this what QBs who run the read-option do, they are allowed to be hit. Pretty plain and simple as far as I’m concerned.

Packers’ Head Coach Mike McCarthy added, “The reality is, the quarterback is part of the option,” McCarthy said. “There’s three options obviously: the quarterback, the dive and the pitch. The ability to go tackle that player is obviously within the rules.”

That’s it right there in a nice, tidy nutshell but just watch. I can almost guarantee that one of the Packers will get nailed for unnecessary roughness for hitting Kaepernick. The league, despite settling its’ concussion lawsuit with former players, will continue to the defense out of the game and make it more and more simple for the offense to score points and score them at will.

In some ways what Harbaugh is doing is no different than an NBA coach talking about his guys getting pounded on by a more aggressive team in the hopes that the officials hear it and then act on it. No one is accusing Harbaugh of being stupid here, but on the heels of the concussion settlement, this just sounds like typical whining.

If the NFL begins to eliminate hitting the quarterback on the read-option then the defense may as well not bother showing up for games. At this point, what more could the league take away from them?

Another sad commentary on the direction of this once proud league.

February 3, 2013

Super Bowl Sunday Betting Tips

Welcome to Super Bowl Sunday. Finally.

After a story-rich season that provided surprise after surprise, the NFL finally reaches its marquee game. It’s taken 22 weeks to get here, but now the 75,000– I would say fans but let’s face it, the corporate numbers eliminates the use of that particular term – in attendance and the millions of TV viewers get the chance to hear Alicia Keys belt out the national anthem, Beyonce shake her rump at halftime whilst lip-syncing (possibly), and those $4 million commercials.

Oh and there’s also the small matter of the game between Baltimore and San Francisco.

Welcome to Super Bowl XLVII: the event, the spectacle, the game nobody can pick.

It’s been a long time since a Super Bowl winner was this hard to pick. Ordinarily, there’s a decisive advantage for one team. That team might not live up to that advantage, but there’s an advantage nonetheless. But this year…

Trying to separate the Niners (the team of the stats) and the Ravens (the team of destiny) has been a nightmare. Numbers (they never lie, you know?) favor San Francisco, but Baltimore has been on a crusade to upset everybody this postseason. Then there’s history. Three of the last five Super Bowls have gone to the underdog. It’s becoming common place to expect the unexpected.

So, who do you pick?

If you’ve waited this long to pick your side, fear not. You’re not the only one. For now, let’s see what Casino Review can conjure up for you.

Opening Lines

Two weeks ago, the line opened with San Francisco as the favorite, with the spread at 5. The total opened at 49.

Current Lines

Sunday morning sees the spread at four with most bookies, although Bet Online has it at 3.5. The total is 47.5 with most online sites, although Bovada has it at 48.

Betting Straight Up

Statistically speaking, San Francisco (11-4-1, 2-0 postseason) has a slight advantage when it comes to the numbers.

Offensively, the Niners compiled more total yards this season, including a whopping 155.7 rushing yards per game (4th in the league). Towards the end of the season – the part where Colin Kaepernick took over quarterbacking duties – the Niners really started putting numbers up.

Baltimore (10-6, 3-0 postseason) was no offensive slouch though. The Ravens outranked the Niners in passing yards and points per game, although the one tenth of a point difference proved these sides would need a well-oiled crowbar to separate them.

These trends have continued during the postseason, although San Francisco has scored 6½ more than the Ravens.

Defensively, San Francisco was a juggernaut. The side limited teams to just 17.1 points per game, second to only Seattle in the regular season. It was the sort of defense we’ve come to expect of Baltimore, only this year’s Baltimore side was middle of the pack when it came to defense. Until this postseason.

Baltimore has allowed just 19 points per game in its three playoff games, while San Francisco has allowed 27.5. It appears that the feared Baltimore defense (and Ray Lewis) turned up at just the right time.

Historically speaking, San Francisco has been to five Super Bowls and won all five. That includes Super Bowl XXIV (Jan. 28, 1990), a game in which the Niners defeated Denver 55-10 at the Super Dome in New Orleans, making for the most lopsided in Super Bowl history.

Baltimore has made one Super Bowl appearance, defeating the New York Giants 34-7 at Super Bowl XXXV (Jan. 28, 2001). One team’s undefeated Super Bowl streak is coming to an end tonight.

Baltimore currently owns a three-game winning streak over San Francisco, with the average game score coming out at 19-6. Some would argue that Baltimore hasn’t faced the 49ers side currently on show, and in terms of the Kaepernick offense, that’s true, but remember: the Ravens took down the Niners last season (Nov. 24, 2011) 16-6. Add to that the fact that San Francisco has only beaten Baltimore once (Nov. 17, 1996; a team that included Steve Young and Jerry Rice) and you have an historical advantage for Baltimore.

Want the waters to get even murkier?

Consider that the NFC representative has the superior record (23-19 since 1970 merger) in the Super Bowl, has won three straight, and is 18-5 when beginning the game as favorite, you surely have to come down in favor of the Niners, right?

But then again, the underdog has won four of the last five Super Bowl games and eight of the last 11. Add to that, the AFC has gone 9-6 in the Super Bowl since snapping a 13-game losing streak in 1998 and things suddenly look to be favorable to Baltimore.

See what we mean by impossible to pick?

And all of this without considering those unfathomable anomalies: will Ray Lewis win a Super Bowl in his final season? Will Colin Kaepernick finish off a fairy tale story? Will an injury play a part? Which Harbaugh brother has the advantage? Or any number of other factors that could impact the game.

So your pick essentially becomes a tossup. Which brings us to…

Take: BALTIMORE – There’s just something about this team that draws you to it. Huge underdog wins against Denver and New England, as well as experience, gives the Ravens a slight edge. An almost indecipherable edge in all fairness, but this just seems like the Ravens’ year now. It certainly didn’t earlier in the year.

Betting Against the Spread

Picking Baltimore means we’re automatically taking the side to cover the spread. But if you still inching towards San Francisco, here’re the numbers you need to know.

San Francisco was 9-7-0 against the spread during the regular season. The Niners covered the spread in both playoff games also.

Baltimore recorded a 6-9-1 tally against the spread during the regular season, but the Ravens have gone on to cover the spread in all three postseason games, including two as the underdog.

Historically, the favorite is 26-18-0 against the spread. On only six occasions has the favorite won the game and failed to cover. The favorite is 5-3-1 ATS when the Super Bowl is played in New Orleans. Those are advantages that favor San Francisco, and well worth considering if you’re going to take the Niners straight up.

In this instance, we’re taking Baltimore to be the 14th underdog to cover and win outright.

Take: BALTIMORE – By default.

Betting the Total

The total is a really bitch to predict. Consider this; the total has gone over in 22 Super Bowls and under in 23. The more keen-eyed of you will realize that only equates to 45 of the 46 Super Bowl games. Well, there was no total in the first Super Bowl.

During the regular season, San Francisco was 10-6-0 in favor of the total going over. The total has also gone over in both games involving the 49ers this postseason. All told, San Francisco has seen the total go over 66.7 percent of the time.

Meanwhile, Baltimore was 8-7-1 in favor of the over during the regular season. This postseason has seen two Ravens games (vs. Indianapolis, at New England) go under, with one (at Denver) going over. All told, the Ravens have seen the total go over 47.4 percent of the time, the same as it has gone under.

Take: UNDER – Both teams may have favored the over this season but the two defenses take the field in New Orleans can shut a game down. The two previous playoff rounds have seen the total go over in all games, which suggests the under is about to rear its ugly head. There’s a historical presence here also: six of the nine Super Bowl games played in the Big Easy have seen the total go under. Meanwhile, six of the last eight Super Bowls have also seen the total go under. Smart bettors should be thinking knockdown, drag out affair, not offensive spectacle.

So there you have it. Now all that’s left to do is sit back and enjoy the final football game of the season.

November 30, 2012

Kaepernick Gets Nod For Niners Start

Colin Kaepernick will be entrusted with another 49ers game this weekend as San Francisco travels to St. Louis.

Colin Kaepernick will start for the San Francisco 49ers this Sunday as the team travels to the Gateway City to take on the St. Louis Rams.

The news filtered out of San Francisco’s training ground on Wednesday following an announcement by head coach Jim Harbaugh.

The move leaves regular starting quarterback Alex Smith – cleared to play last week following a concussion – watching from the sidelines.

Kaepernick replaced Smith in Week 10 after the latter was injured during a game against the Rams at Candlestick Park. The second year quarterback completed 11 of 17 passes before the game ended in a tie.

With Smith diagnosed with concussion and medically unfit to play, Kaepernick made his first career start against the Bears on Monday Night Football in Week 11. During the game, Kaepernick completed 16 of 23 passes and threw for two touchdowns, as he outdueled fellow backup, Jason Campbell, spelling a concussed Jay Culter. The Niners outplayed the Bears and took the game 32-7.

Following much speculation, Kaepernick made his second start last Sunday against the New Orleans Saints. He completed 16 of 25 passes, tallying a touchdown and a first interception of the season. The Niners won the game 31-21.

Now, the second-year triggerman is set to start on Sunday.

Overall this season, Kaepernick has completed 48 of 74 passes (64.9%) for 680 yards and thrown three touchdowns and one interception. His quarterback rating is 92.92.

In nine games this season, Smith has thrown for 1,731 yards on 152 of 217 passing, with 13 touchdowns and five interceptions. His quarterback rating is 69.83. He was certainly not the happiest person on the sideline this past weekend in New Orleans.

Smith visited with Miami in the offseason whilst the Niners flirted with Peyton Manning but resigned with the Bay Area side to be its starter. Smith may well have been ‘Wally Pipped’ following Harbaugh’s decision to go with Kaepernick, although everybody within the franchise is sticking firmly with the line that both quarterbacks are go-to-guys.

Despite the potential/existing (depending how you look at it) quarterback controversy, San Francisco has moved up in the NFL Futures. The Niners are now favorites (9/4) to take the NFC and 5/1 to win the Super Bowl. Only New England and Houston (both 9/2) have shorter odds.

San Francisco’s defense has given up just 278.4 yards per game, second to Pittsburgh, and is the stingiest in points conceded (14.1 PPG). St. Louis’ 28th ranked offense will be in for a long day.

Offensively, San Francisco leads the league in rushing yards, making up for a low-ranked passing game. That being said, Kaepernick has added some impetus to the Niners’ passing game over the past two weeks. The Rams will find this team tough to stop.

Heading into play this weekend, San Francisco (8-2-1, 4-1 road) opened as 6½-points favorites over St. Louis (4-6, 3-3 home), a number that has increased to 7½.

Both sides have fared well against the spread this season, each tallying a 7-4-0 ATS record.

Throw out Week 10’s tie and the Niners have straight up won seven of the last eight meetings with the Rams, as well as five of the last eight meetings in St. Louis.

The over/under is 41. The total has gone over in seven Rams games this season, but only five Niner games have exceeded the marker. Four of the last five head-to-head meetings have gone over 41 points.

If San Francisco is victorious in St. Louis – which would mark a fourth win in five games – Colin Kaepernick may just play himself into the starting role permanently, which means Alex Smith could face the trading block come February.