2015 NFL Win Totals Posted by Odds Makers

Super Bowl XLIX was played just 17 days ago and the win totals for the 2015 season have already been posted for futures wagering online and in Las Vegas.

According to Bovada and betonline, the Seattle Seahawks are projected to win 11 games during the 2015 season, which is the high for the league, while the reigning Super Bowl champion New England Patriots are projected to win 10.5 games.

A number of teams expected to improve their win totals by two or more games were middle of the pack teams this past NFL season. Among those teams are the New Orleans Saints, New York Giants and Atlanta Falcons.

According to topbet and sportsbook.com, the Arizona Cardinals a playoff team with 11 wins during the recently ended NFL season despite a number of issues with quarterbacks going down injured were given a win total of 8.

The Dallas Cowboys should according to the numbers posted drop from their 12-win total of this past season as they have been projected to win 9.5 games.

The Green Bay Packers and Denver Broncos are also expected to win fewer games next season than this season, although the two teams are two of just four teams that opened with win totals in the double digits. The win total for the Pittsburgh Steelers has been listed at 8.5, which is two and a half games down from their total of 11 wins this past season. The Oakland Raiders are at the bottom of the heap as they are projected to win just 4.5 games, while the Tennessee Titans are at 5 games and the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are sitting at 5.5 wins.

2015 NFL Projected win totals, 2014 win totals
49ers 8.5 wins, 2014 wins: 8
Bears 7 wins, 2014 wins: 5
Bengals 8.5 wins, 2014 wins: 10
Bills 8.5 wins, 2014 wins: 9
Broncos 10 wins, 2014 wins: 12
Browns 6 wins, 2014 wins: 7
Buccaneers 5.5 wins, 2014 wins: 2
Cardinals 8 wins, 2014 wins: 11
Chargers 8.5 wins, 2014 wins: 9
Chiefs 8.5, 2014 wins: 9
Colts 9.5 wins, 2014 wins: 11
Cowboys 9.5 wins, 2014 wins: 12
Dolphins 8 wins, 2014 wins: 8
Eagles 9 wins, 2014 wins: 10
Falcons 8 wins, 2014 wins: 6
Giants 8 wins, 2014 wins: 6
Jaguars 5.5 wins, 2014 wins: 3
Jets 6.5 wins, 2014 wins: 4
Lions 8.5 wins, 2014 wins: 11
Packers 10 wins, 2014 wins: 12
Panthers 8.5 wins, 2014 wins: 7
Patriots 10.5 wins, 2014 wins: 12
Raiders 4.5 wins, 2014 wins: 3
Rams 7.5 wins, 2014 wins: 6
Ravens 9 wins, 2014 wins: 10
Redskins 6 wins, 2014 wins: 4
Saints 9 wins, 2014 wins: 7
Seahawks 11 wins, 2014 wins: 12
Steelers 8.5 wins, 2014 wins: 11
Texans 8.5 wins, 2014 wins: 9
Titans 5 wins, 2014 wins: 2
Vikings 6.5 wins, 2014 wins: 7

Patriots/OVER Hurts Books in Super Bowl XLIX

Super Bowl XLIX has concluded with the New England Patriots winning their fourth Vince Lombardi trophy. The 28-24 victory over Seattle resulted in a four-way teaser victory for many bettors.

The parlay of New England and the OVER also cashed. That means for many sports books there was a less than ideal finish to the NFL season as the books were weighed down with public action in the form of teasers and with parlays with each team linked to the OVER. The majority of books will most likely end up on top but only with a very small win.

Last season’s Super Bowl set a new record for the handle with $119 million and it seems that will be surpassed due to a flood of betting in Vegas prior to the kick off on Sunday.

Sites such as Bovada and sportsbook.com lost teasers as well as parlays, but were able to make up from their futures, props and parlay cards to put them in the black.

As has become customary, the public bettor took the OVER and this time get the better of sharp money, most of whom were on the UNDER. According to topbet and betonline, the total before kickoff was hovering at 47 to 47.5.

The worst case scenario for the books was New England and the OVER but even though that took place, the 350 props helped them to a win.

The three yard TD pass from Tom Brady to wide receiver Julian Edelman with only 2:02 remaining combined with the Malcolm Brown interception at the goal line with only 26 seconds remaining in the game sent backers of the Patriots cashing their tickets.

Not all books were able to come out as winners however. Some took a large amount of action on the Patriots thus the day was not as good for them and even after the props and futures were factored into the equation, the day ended in the red.

One Vegas bookmaker always has higher wagers than others and said it took in one wager of seven figures on New England with a number of others of six figures. With bets of that size, the impact of parlays, teasers and props are minimized.

Many of the books were hurt with the interception by New England to end the game and prevent Seattle from scoring and winning. A win by Seattle and the OVER would have give the books a much better day since the majority of money was on the Pats.

Despite the parlays and teasers hitting the books hard, the intense betting on prop bets means bookmakers will likely come out overall on top.

Why New England Will Win Super Bowl XLIX

The New England Patriots will play against the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLIX today in Arizona.

This is the sixth Super Bowl for New England in the past 14 year, which is the most in league history over a span f 15 or fewer years.

New England’s 12 wins during the regular season was the fifth consecutive season of 12 or more wins. The Pats claimed the AFC East division for the eleventh time in 12 seasons.

The offense for New England was No. 4 in scoring at 29.3 points per game. New England played 7 of the league’s top 10 passing defenses with impressive numbers.

Seattle is ranked No. 1 in pass defense. However, of late the Seahawks have played quarterbacks such as Colin Kaepernick, Drew Stanton, Mark Sanchez, Shaun Hill and Ryan Lindley not your lineup of All-Pros at quarterback.

Brady had plenty of time in the pocket this season with the fourth fewest sacks at 26. Seattle’s quarterback Russell Wilson by contrast was sacked 42 times.

Seattle has a strong defensive secondary, but the group is banged up. Earl Thomas one of the safeties, dislocated a shoulder against Green Bay in the NFC Championship and will not be 100%.

This season the Pats won six of its seven games versus playoff teams, with the only loss in Week 13 at Green Bay 26-21.

The Green Bay loss was the only one New England suffered against NFC opponents.

In its six wins against playoff teams, the Patriots scored 34 points or more in each game, including 42 points or more against three AFC teams Denver, Cincinnati and Indianapolis (twice).

Seattle has not played well during this postseason. Carolina was able to out gain them and the game was much closer than the final score. In Seattle’s win against Green Bay, it was more about what Green Bay did wrong to give away the NFC Championship. The Packers controlled the game from start to finish, but failed miserably on several occasions to put the game out of reach of Seattle.

Seattle cannot afford to start slow or turn the ball over against the potent offense of New England. Seattle will likely not score 16 points from special teams and its defense as it did in last season’s Super Bowl rout of Denver.

New England is 20-4 ATS in games with point spreads between -3 and +3.

The last time the teams met head to head Seattle won 24-23, but New England held Marshawn Lynch to just 41 rushing yards. In five games against New England in his career, including while at Buffalo, Lynch is averaging just 53 yards per game.

The defense for Seattle has a hard time with tight ends. Can you say Rob Gronkowski?

Take New England 27-24.

Breaking Down Super Bowl XLIX

Brady
Brady
I believe Super Bowl XLIX will come down to a final drive and Tom Brady will be under center for it. Will he be successful?

My favorite part of the the two weeks leading up to the playing of the actual Super Bowl is… The playing of the actual Super Bowl.

On Sunday night, we will be able to finally stop worrying about deflate-gate, what Marshawn Lynch says or doesn’t say and whether Idina Menzel has messed up the national anthem or not. In short, it will finally be time to play football.

Choosing who to go with in Super Bowl XLIX has not been easy. There are so many factors that must be considered for both teams and of course we can never predict turnovers or how the game is called by the officials. Nevertheless, I think I have a good read on this game so see whether you agree or not by reading on.

Super Bowl XLIX New England Patriots (-2) vs Seattle Seahawks (O/U 47.5) – Let’s take everything off the field off the table. That means let’s focus on the two teams and not deflate-gate or Marshawn Lynch’s hat.

Tom Brady is making his sixth start in a Super Bowl and he’s lost his last two which were both against the New York Giants. In the prior five Super Bowls, the game has come down to the final drive and I feel this one will be no different.

Seahawks
Look for both Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas to be involved with covering Rob Gronkowski.

If we analyze both of the Patriots’ losses, the Giants were able to get consistent pressure up the middle on Brady and most of that pressure came from just the front four defensive linemen. The Seahawks are significantly better than the Giants were in the secondary but can they get the same type of pressure the Giants did?

My assumption is that the Patriots will learn from Denver’s struggles last year in the Super Bowl and they will not abandon the run. The problem is whether Josh McDaniels chooses to use LeGarrette Blount or another running back like Jonas Gray. Seattle must also decide how they are going to cover Rob Gronkowski. Will they attempt to keep a linebacker on him or will Kam Chancellor or Earl Thomas be stuck with that assignment?

When the Seahawks are on offense, they will know that Bill Belichick typically likes to take away his opponent’s best player. Common sense points us to that being Russell Wilson or Marshawn Lynch. Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell will be prepared and I think you’ll see more read-option from Seattle than we’ve seen recently from them this season.

If they find any success with that, the passing game will open up, especially on the edges and to the tight ends. Will that be enough to keep New England on it’s heels defensively?

Obviously the one area we can’t forget is special teams. Turnovers or major mistakes here are likely to be disastrous as close as I expect this game to be.

Trends: The total has gone UNDER in six of New England’s last eight games… Seattle is 6-2 straight up in their last eight games against New England… The Patriots are 2-6 against the spread in their last right games against the Seahawks… Seattle is 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games.

Key Injuries: NE C Brian Stork QUES/Knee, CB Brandon Browner QUES/Knee… SEA S Earl Thomas QUES/Shoulder

The Pick:  No one holds a lead as well as the Seahawks but I think they will fall behind early. Tom Brady has an opportunity to seal his legacy as an all-time great with a win and to do it, he’ll need a touchdown to win the game late. I think Seattle takes its’ first lead in the second half and holds on to win 27-23. Take the Seahawks and the points and take the OVER.

Public Still Behind Patriots, Sharp Money On Seahawks


While the New England Patriots -1 has been the consensus line across most sportsbooks both online and in Vegas, with most of the early money on the Patriots, one bookmaker still believes things will move in the opposite direction as the Sunday kickoff starts to approach.

At online bookmakers such as Bovada and topbet, as much as 2.5 times more action has been taken on New England than on Seattle.

Most of the public is still high on the Patriots but many odds makers believe the point will arrive when money starts showing up on the weekend for the Seahawks. The quiet before the storm is how is happens during the two week period between the conference championships and the Super Bowl.

Once Friday arrives, things will change, according to online bookmakers betonline and sportsbook.com.

One bookmaker said he has had just on bet of six-figures for the Super Bowl thus far and that was for New England.

However, he said sharp money was favoring Seattle. So the thought is that the public was start to realize the same team that routed Denver in the Super Bowl last year is back again and their defense is still No. 1 in the league.

Some bookmakers moved the line from Patriots -1 to -1.5 and finally began taking money for Seattle, which prompted them to move it back down to Patriots -1.

A large amount of sharp action at New England -1.5 caused the bookmaker to move the line back down.

On the point total, the number is continuing to be bet down. Almost every bookmaker has the total sitting at 48, but a few here and there have it at 47.5.

It is anticipated that public money will go OVER and that could prompt bookmakers to move it back up to 48 or even 48.5.

Sharp money has taken the UNDER. The line opened as high as 49 and it has dropped to 48.5 and to 48, with a few at 47.5. However, books tend to stay on the high side since the public likes the OVER. However, the pros are definitely taking the UNDER.

The Super Bowl parties will start Sunday across the country in bars and homes from coast to coast, as the single most popular sporting event in the U.S. prepares to kickoff.

Bookmakers are expecting a surge in action from the public starting Friday and not letting up until just before the opening kickoff on Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET from University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

More Super Bowl Stats to Consider Before Placing A Bet

Leading up to the Super Bowl there is a vast amount of data and information to review when deciding on what team to choose to win or cover in the big game. More information is available if trying to determine whether the game will be high scoring or a defensive struggle.

Sportsbooks such as Bovada and betonline, amongst others have trends, head-to-head stats and other information for the bettors to review prior to making his or her pick. Other sites such as topbet and sportsbook.com provide the most up to date stats, injuries reports and in-depth analysis for the bettors.

Below are even more Stats to Ponder

  • This season when Seattle and New England are winners of the coin flip to start the game, the two are a combined 18-2, when the two lose the flip, the results are just 10-6 in the win column.
  • Seattle and New England opened the season 8-5, but since are 20-3.
  • Seattle and New England have allowed just three touchdowns in the second half in their last 16 games combined.
  • Both entrants in Super Bowl XLIX have touchdown passes by players who are not quarterbacks.
  • Seattle is the first team to make consecutive appearance in the Super Bowl since 2003-2004 when New England did it.
  • Seattle is the first team since the Chicago Bears, in 1985 and 1986, to lead the NFL in defense two straight seasons.
  • New England, back in 2007, scored almost 37 points a game during the 16-game regular season, but only 14 during the Super Bowl. New England, in 2011 averaged 32 points a game in the regular season, but scored just 17 during the Super Bowl.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs were not able to make the postseason, but defeated both entrants in this year’s Super Bowl.
  • Both of the starting quarterbacks in Super Bowl XLIX have been victorious in a Super Bowl. In his short career, Russell Wilson has a record of 10-0 against quarterback who won Super Bowls. In that same comparison, Tom Brady has a record of 15-8.
  • In 12 of the past 14 Super Bowls at least one of the starters was named, Brady, Manning or Roethlisberger.

How these stats help a bettor to make a more educated decision is up to the individual bettor, but numbers do not lie.

With just four days remaining until the Super Bowl kicks off, bettors will be inundated with data and information about the teams, the offense and defense and individual players. The hope is everyone will be able to digest it prior to the kickoff in order to make most educated bet available.

Super Bowl XLIX– Early Bettors Hitting the UNDER

The betting action on the Super Bowl slowed during this past weekend and the most recent movement shows the New England Patriots as 1-point favorites, while the point total has been bet down from 49 to 48 and some online books such as Bovada and sportsbook.com have it as low as 47.5.

The UNDER has been coming in strong on the total and finally books have moved it down. As the game approaches, the number could go even low and sharp money is holding out until the end when they might jump in on the OVER, according to topbet and betonline.

Last season a record was set for Las Vegas with $119 million wagered on Super Bowl XLVIII. Thus far, the handle looks to be a bit less, but there are still five days before kickoff. The money is coming in at a rate of 2 to 1 on the Patriots.

The impact due of deflate-gate is not that big, but has caused some emotional bettors to move away from New England.

Last season not only did much of the public think Denver had the better team, but emotionally they liked Peyton Manning and wanted him to win.

In this Super Bowl, after watching New England destroy Indianapolis, most thought New England and coach Bill Belichick were untouchable, but nobody besides hardcore fans of New England are on their side at this point.

The handle will definitely pick up on Friday and into the weekend all the way up to Sunday’s late afternoon kick off.

The Seahawks are hoping that cornerback Richard Sherman will be healthy enough to play and be effective in the game.

New England is hoping the controversy over the deflated footballs will not be a distraction to players from the game, while Seattle is quietly hoping it will be.

Defensively, the Seahawks are not as good as last season, but have played well the past 8 games. They have allowed just 78 points in the past 8 games played and could make it hard for Tom Brady and the Patriots to put points on the board, unless the run game for New England can put the defense back on its heels. If Seattle is able to pressure Brady up the middle, it could be a long day for New England.

On the offense, bettors must decide which rushing attack will win the time of possession and have more rushing yards. Even with the NFL turning into more of a passing game on offense, teams that have rushed for more yards than their opponents and won the time of possession in the Super Bowl have been very successful.

Some Super Bowl Betting History for You to Consider

SBXIII
SBXIII
Super Bowl XIII has become known as "Black Sunday" because Vegas took a beating.

As we have now entered the official “Super Bowl” week, I think it’s important to share some history of betting the big game. Obviously, there is no event in America that has more action in a given year than the Super Bowl.

The amount of money wagered on this game every winter is enough to run most nations for a calendar year if not longer. If you are going to be one of those millions of folks who are going to lay money on the championship of American Professional Football then let’s check the history books for some perspective and analysis. Any piece of information you can get your hands on is is crucial.

Favorites in the Super Bowl have gone 33-15 straight up in the previous 48 games. They are also 26-18-2 against the spread. The National Football Conference holds a 26-22 advantage and has won five of the last seven Super Bowls.

The largest upset in the game came way back in Super Bowl III when the New York Jets defeated the Baltimore Colts 16-7. The Jets entered as 18-point underdogs.

Seahawks
Seattle entered last season's Super Bowl as an underdog and it looks like more of the same this season.

In terms of the Over/Under, the Over has ruled in 25 of the 48 games. Super Bowl I did not have an O/U so means the Under was the right play 22 times. The Over has won three of the last four and is tied with the Under with five victories each in the last ten Super Bowls.

In terms of the recent history of underdogs, they have won six of the last seven Super Bowls including last year when Denver entered as a -2.5 point favorite over the Seahawks. The only favorite to win during that stretch was Green Bay in Super Bowl XLV.

The most infamous Super Bowl in terms of betting was Super Bowl XIII. This was the second of three Super Bowl meetings between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Dallas Cowboys. The Steelers opened at -4.5 but as the game neared, it fell to -3.5 with heavy action on Dallas. The Steelers were victorious 35-31 so Vegas bookies were hit hard.

Many bettors took the Cowboys on that early -4.5 line while many jumped on the Steelers when it went to -3.5. This has since been known as “Black Sunday” to many in the sports gambling business.

As we move our focus to this year’s game, our friends at Bovada currently have the New England Patriots listed as two-point favorites over the defending champion Seattle Seahawks.

If we look at the pattern over the last ten Super Bowls we can come up with the following:

If we like the Patriots as the favorite at -2, then your chances are strong. Winning 33 of 48 is pretty solid.

If we like the AFC team (the Patriots), then we might want to move towards Seattle.

If we are talking about playing the Over/Under then we are going to suggest the Over based on recent results. If we go based on all of the Super Bowls, then this decision really does come down to a coin flip as we’re very nearly at 50%.

Since 2000, the NFC has been the Super Bowl favorite only four times. The St. Louis Rams twice (1-1), the Packers (1-0) and the San Francisco 49ers (0-1). Outside of the Packers win, the other three times saw the Rams not cover against the Titans, the Niners lose straight up to Baltimore and the Rams losing straight up to the Patriots.

With all that swirling around these Patriots, you have to ask yourself whether it will galvanize them or ruin them? That said, you must still look at the history because it tells an awful lot.

Bookmakers NFL Conference Championship Sunday Hurt by Seattle

For the second consecutive season, both No. 1 seeds from the AFC and NFC conferences advanced to play in the Super Bowl.

Each of the teams however took different routes to arrive at Super Bowl XLIX.

While the New England Patriots routed the Colts, the Seattle Seahawks pulled off a shocking comeback to win in overtime.

Bookmakers did not enjoy their NFL Conference Championship Sunday. New England winning big hurt many of them, as not much money came in over the weekend on the Colts.

Most of the sharp money arrived early on the Colts +7, which happened after the announcement of the injury to Bryan Stork the rookie center for Patriots.

However, on a number of levels, the big surprise was in Seattle.

Green Bay could have won at +325 on the moneyline for Bovada and sportsbook.com, leading 19-7 with under three minutes to play.

The UNDER sitting on 45 also seemed quite safe at that point, even after a touchdown by Seattle cut the Packers lead to 19-14.

However, after the Seahawks scored an improbable touchdown to lead 22-19 with just 90 seconds remaining, the UNDER died on a field goal of 48 yards by Green Bay to force overtime.

The moneyline bets for Green Bay were then killed when Seattle scored a touchdown only 4 minutes into the OT period.

However, the Packers were able to cash in as dogs by 8.5 points, which for sportsbooks such as topbet and betonline was much worse. Seattle winning the game outright late and the OVER cashing at the end of regulation, was not good for most books.

The Seattle win also triggered a number of moneyline bets as well as teasers.

The Patriots are now -1 on most books for Super Bowl XLIX to be played in Arizona. Seattle opened as 2.5-point chalk, but before the AFC Championship Game was even over, support on New England came in to bet it down to the current New England -1.

This is the third time a Super Bowl has been played in Arizona. It will be the second played at University of Phoenix Stadium.

The Dallas Cowboys defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XXX in 1995 27-17 to claim their third Super Bowl in four years.

However, Pittsburgh was able to cover as a 13.5-point dog, while the UNDER cashed on 51 with a point total for the game of 44.

In 2007, New England lost its opportunity to go 19-0 when the New York Giants beat them 17-14 in Super Bowl XLII. The Giants were 12-point dogs in the game. The UNDER, at 55, easily cashed on a point total of just 31.

Bettors Have Two Weeks to Peruse Props, Lines and Trends

The two weeks between the NFL Conference Championship games and the Super Bowl is always a great time for bettors to peruse the many options for betting on the big game. There are ample prop bets available, the point spread, money line and of course the point total.

Props include betting on what score each team will have, who scores first or how many rushing yards a particular player will have.

Last season, the Seahawks to win by 22 points or more was 12 to 1.

The first play resulting in a score being a safety went off at 35 to 1. Surprisingly, both cashed.

There are countless props for stats including passing yards, rushing yards, interceptions, touchdown passes, sacks and more.

There has yet to be overtime in the previous 48 Super Bowls. That can be however bet on, if the game will end in overtime.

The biggest single sporting event in the U.S. brings out creativity in the odds makers. Smart bettors will sift through the props, and side bets trying to find where the edge is. Since 1976 and Super Bowl X that featured the Cowboys and Steelers, the point total has been OVER 23 times and UNDER 16 times.

The overs have dominated and one reason is teams with the lead are not as likely to sit on the bowl during the second half. If a team has a 14 to 20 point lead at half during the regular season, they might play conservative to run the clock down and to avoid any injuries.

However, during the postseason, each game is potentially the last and the Super Bowl is definitely the last therefore no lead is ever enough.

Often times new plays or even trick plays are put into the game plan to maximize every possibly scoring opportunity.

Despite there being a large number of overs, the importance of the defense cannot be overlooked.

Last year, Seattle won the title thanks to incredible defense despite being an underdog in the Super Bowl to Denver’s record setting offense.

High scoring teams like Green Bay and New Orleans lost in the divisional playoffs three years ago, but defensive minded Baltimore and New York reached the conference championships

Key numbers will enter the equation as well. Bookmakers are worried about being middled. In 2001, St. Louis was a 7- to 7.5-point favorite versus Tennessee. The Rams won 23-16.

This year’s game will feature the up-tempo New England Patriots offense and that dreaded defense for the Seattle Seahawks. It should be another tough decision for the bettors.