Weather No Longer a Worry for Super Bowl Bettors

The Super Bowl is just two days away and the betting lines are taking shape. Bettors are wondering how the weather will affect the outcome, point spread and point total. Some are wondering if the line will finally reach Denver -3.

The weather storyline for the Super Bowl has not been hyped up much in the media and that has helped the sports book, as they have seen an increase in action including wagers of six figures in Vegas for both teams, as the weather forecast continues to improve.

Last week, the forecast was calling for freezing temperatures with as high as a 60% change of precipitation. Some betting props used on Bovada, topbet and other sports books were delayed because of worry over the weather.

Last week for example on betonline and sportsbook.com the UNDER was a popular bet due to the worry over the possible inclement weather. However, as the weather outlook brightened, so did the bets for the OVER.

One reason the betting is taking a turn towards the OVER in the point total is the wind. Each new weather report being released is showing lower wind speeds for Sunday’s big game and that will influence many bettors, especially smart money that will start to appear between now and kickoff.

Early Friday morning most shops had the point total on 47.5 but others were as high as 48 and as low as 47.

Current forecasts are calling for temperatures in the 40s with lows in just the upper 30s, little or no chance of precipitation and light winds.

No one can completely forget about the weather since there is a frontal system predicted to hit western upstate New York on Sunday and could, albeit the chance is remote, hit the area.

However, for smart money and for those quarterbacks with a sloppy spiral, it is the wind that factors in the most and that is not expected to be a factor on Sunday.

That should therefore favor Peyton Manning, as his aerial attack is so important to the Broncos offense.

The current line of -2.5 on Denver is holding steady, but some are wondering if it will jump to -3.

Opinions differ and no sports book of note has pushed it up to -3. Even with the majority of shops holding more money on Denver, they were hesitant to move the line up due to a worry that big sharp money will then pounce on Seattle at +3.

Most odds makers do not think it will go to -3 and if it were to get there they believe it would be a weak +3 (-120) and nothing more. They also say that there is a ZERO chance of its making its way to -3.5.

Some wagering sites believe 90% of the money wagered on the Super Bowl will be bet between Friday and Sunday’s kickoff.

Public Heavy on Auburn, Look for Sharps to Take Florida State

The NCAA football season will be capped off with the final BCS Championship Game on January 6 when the Auburn Tigers face the Florida State Seminoles at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California.

Auburn represents the SEC and that conference will be seeking its eighth consecutive national title. This will be the last of the BCS championships, as next season the NCAA switches to a four-team playoff format to determine the champion.

Online wagering sites such as Bovada are seeing a repeat when it comes to the BCS Championship Game, as the public continues to love Auburn. Representatives from topbet, sportsbook.com and betonline all have said how much the public is taking Auburn and the points.

Auburn has created a mystic and intrigue from public bettors due to their two miraculous wins over Georgia and Alabama, followed by their smash mouth football against Missouri.

In the public’s mind, the SEC will never lose and now comes along a line that is giving them huge points. Depending on the book you look at, Florida State is -8 to -9, with a -270/+230 money line.

Some books have stayed with the opening line of 8.5 for Florida State believing that the late money from the public will be for the Seminoles.

By the time the kickoff arrives, most books believe, including Bovada, that sharp money will be firmly behind Florida State.

One insider in the industry said that if sharp money had been interested in the Auburn Tigers they would already have taken them by this time. Sharps know the public will play strongly on Auburn and hope to see the line drop late to 7.5 or even 7 so they can jump on it.

The handle, said staff at topbet should be very significant for Monday’s national championship game. Both schools have very large followings and the matchup looks to be entertaining and a tight battle.

The public also appears to be betting the OVER regardless what the number is. The sharps will at some point take the UNDER, as they do annually said one bookmaker.

Many believe at 65 or 66 that the total number is too high, due to Florida State allowing only an average of 10.7 points per game.

The Seminoles are 8-0-1 ATS over their past nine appearances in bowl games, 12-2-1 ATS over their past 16 games played on neutral sites and 4-1 ATS over their past 5 games versus teams from the SEC.

The Tigers are 7-0 ATS over their past 7 games against teams with a winning record, 11-1 ATS over their past 12 games overall and 8-0 ATS over their past 8 games played on natural grass. The Tigers are just 2-7 ATS versus opponents from the ACC.

The OVER has cashed in 10 of the 13 games FSU has played this season. However, the UNDER has gone 5-1 over the past 6 Florida State games versus teams from the SEC. For Auburn the OVER has cashed in all of their past four games overall, but the UNDER has cashed in 6 of the past 8 bowl games the Tigers have played in.

Pick: I like the Tigers to be close and win ATS, but Florida State SU.

Public Likes 49ers, Sharp Goes with Tampa Bay

Week 15 NFL action has sharp money on Tampa Bay, while the public likes San Francisco. This week on many online sites that feature sports wagering, there is a strange calmness with the only college football game being Army vs. Navy and college basketball not having gone into overdrive as of yet.

Nevertheless, on Sunday a complete schedule of NFL action will keep sites like Bovada, sportsbook.com, betonline and topbet busy from sunrise to sunset and beyond.

The big plays for NFL on Bovada will come on Sunday just before kickoff and during the game with their live wagering, that is available.

Thus far, the public seems to like the San Francisco 49ers, Carolina Panthers, Kansas City Chiefs and Seattle Seahawks. Each sports book, including topbet and betonline will have to win these four games if they expect to come out on top for the week.

Top bet games of Week 14

Atlanta opened as a favorite at home by 4.5 points over Washington when everyone thought Robert Griffin III would start. However, with the announcement Kirk Cousins would quarterback, the line jumped up to -7, before settling on Saturday on most sites, including topbet at -6.5.

San Francisco opened as a favorite by 5.5 points on the road against Tampa Bay and that dropped to 4.5. Smart money nevertheless is taking Tampa Bay, while the public is strongly in favor of San Francisco.

Arizona came out on Sunday as a 3-point favorite against Tennessee and was bet down to -2, but has since gone back up to its opening of -3 for Arizona on the road.

The Saints have not been the best team on the road this season at 1-5 ATS, but the Saints have been a -6 favorite all week against St. Louis.

Seattle opened this week as a favorite by 7 points over the New York Giants. That was bet down to -6.5, but is currently sitting on -7.

New England opened this week as a favorite on the road at Miami by 2.5 points. However, by Wednesday the game, thanks to Miami money, was pushed to a Pick ‘em on most cards.

Carolina opened the week at -10.5 over the New York Jets at home. That went up during midweek betting to -11, but Jets money came in and pushed it down to its original -10.5.

The Kansas City Chiefs opened in their matchup at Oakland as 3.5-point favorites, but that went up as high as -4.5 during midweek and has stayed there. There are even books with it as high as -5.5.

The Green Bay at Dallas line was held up all week because of the uncertainty of Aaron Rodgers. On Friday, the team announced he would not play and the line opened at -7 for Dallas but late Saturday was down to -6.5.

No matter what game someone likes, make sure research is completed up until just prior to kickoff before going online to Bovada or any of the other sites like betonline, topbet and sportsbook.com to post your online wager.

 

Jets Lead Books to Winning Week 9

In Week 8, bettors enjoyed their best week of the NFL season against sports books such as betonline, topbet and Bovada. That week most of the favorite teams won and covered the point spread.

However, this past week in an attempt the keep their hot streak alive, much of the winnings from the prior week were given back as the same teams that won in week 8 not only failed to covered by failed to win outright.

For many books, including Bovada, the win by the New York Jets was big. The Jets upset the New Orleans Saints 26-20, which killed the books’ parlay liabilities and a number of teasers.

The Jets are now 4-0 SU and ATS in four straight games following a SU loss this year, while New Orleans is 1-3 ATS on the road this season.

The game finished UNDER in total points, which helped many of the books like topbet, because the Saints have made the OVER a favorite amongst the public.

The worst game for the books on Sunday was the Carolina Panthers as both sharp money and the public were betting the same side, which usually does not happen that often.

The Panthers have been winning big of late with high scoring totals, which sent many to take the OVER and the Panthers. The public and sharp money came out as the Panthers routed the Falcons 34-10.

Sharp money was also bet on the Browns for their game at home versus Baltimore. Their win by 6 points covered the +2 and was one of only three underdogs who won outright on the weekend.

Dallas was up as high as an 11-point favorite during midweek, but large money on the Vikings took it down to only 9 at kickoff. Minnesota nearly upset the Cowboys but Dallas pulled out the win. However, they did not cover. It was just the second time this season the Cowboys have not covered.

Nearly 72% of all money on the Tampa Bay vs. Seattle matchup was laying points, which helped the books as well when Tampa blasted out of the gate to take a 21-0 lead, but could not hold on and lost in overtime 27-24.

Seattle is 1-4 ATS the spread over their past five games, after having one of the best ATS rates over the past three seasons and just three weeks ago, the Seahawks were No. 1 in ATS ratings ahead of Denver.