Oregon Ducks 23-Point Chalk at Home Against Arizona

Thursday night college football heads to the Pacific Northwest, when the Oregon Ducks host the Arizona Wildcats in a Pac-12 showdown.

Last season, the Wildcats upset the Ducks 42-16 and the Ducks will be looking to take their revenge.

The line has Oregon favored by 23 points on Bovada and topbet, while on betonline and sportsbook.com the point total is sitting on 79.

Arizona enters this matchup at 4-0 SU and 1-3 ATS. The Wildcats are 6-3 SU over the past 9 head-to-head games with Oregon.

Arizona is 1-4 against the number over its past 5 games as a road dog.

Oregon is also 1-4 against the spread in its past five home games as a favorite. The Ducks are also 2-7 ATS over their past 9 games overall.

In point totals, the OVER is 4-1 over the past five games Oregon has been the favorite at home.

Last season when the two met, the Ducks had been defeated by Stanford two weeks earlier and did not have an opportunity for a perfect season.

Marcus Mariota the talented Oregon quarterback will be looking to dissect the Arizona secondary and put up a number of points on the board.

The Arizona rushing offense is strong and with quarterback Anu Solomon coming off a five-touchdown effort on September 20 against Cal.

Two seasons ago, the Ducks defeated Arizona at home 49-0 as a favorite by 20 points.

Nick Wilson the talented freshman running back for Arizona helped the Wildcats to their Hail Mary win over Cal 49-45. He leads the Pac-12 in rushing.

However, Arizona on the road following a bye is 1-4 SU and ATS. The only ATS win in that stretch was against the Ducks in 2010 when the Wildcats lost 48-29 but covered an underdog spread of 20.5 points.

Oregon is coming off a September 20 win of 38-31 over Washington State, but they failed again to cover a 21.5 spread as the favorite.

At home, following a bye, the Ducks are 10-0 SU in their past 10 and 6-2 ATS over their past 8.

With both teams only covering a combined 2 of 8 games this season, the advantage of playing at home could be big for Oregon.

Some believe Arizona will score and kept it within the 23-point spread, but I think differently I am taking the Ducks in a lopsided 55-21 win.

Successful NCAA Football Coaches Against the Spread

One great gauge to see which coaches in college football are getting more than what is expected from their players is the closing against the point spread record.

The closing line on sportsbooks such as Bovada and topbet is sharpened by thousands of dollars in bets and represents the expectations of the college football betting world.

Bill Snyder

One active coach, Bill Snyder from Kansas State has exceeded the norm for decades. No active head coach in college football has covered the number in more overall games than Snyder.

Amongst coaches with five seasons or more, only Urban Meyer the Ohio State head coach has a better ATS winning percentage. However, Snyder has 61 more games in which he has covered the spread than Meyer has.

Charlie Weis knows just what it is like to face Kansas State. Long before Weis arrived in Kansas, Snyder has been manhandling the Jayhawks. K-State under Snyder is 14-1 ATS versus Kansas.

When Snyder was away for three seasons between 2006 and 2008, the Wildcats lost the three games versus Kansas.

Since his return in 2009, K-State is 5-0 SU as well as ATS versus Kansas.

In those 5 matchups, K-State covered the spread by over 20 point per game on average. Betonline and sportsbook.com have K-State favored by 25 points in their head the head matchup on November 29.

However, Snyder is not potent in just games against the Jayhawks, but also the conference. In conference games, Snyder is 31-11 against the number since returning in 2009 and no other team in the conference since that time has a better record.

During his head coaching career, Snyder is 88-52 against the spread in home games and 149-102 against the number overall.

Urban Meyer and Gus Malzahn

Urban Meyer in his career is 30-9 against the spread when his has over a week to prepare his team and that included opening games of the season.

Meyer is also 15-5 against the spread when an underdog. In the 20 games as an underdog in his career, Meyer has won 12 outright. Only David Shaw at Stanford has a better winning percentage when an underdog.

Meyer following a loss is 14-6-2 against the number.

Gus Malzahn since becoming a head coach is 20-6 against the number. Of course, that is not much time to make comparisons with just a single season at Arkansas State and least season’s 12-2 ATS with Auburn.

However, Malzahn is just the third head coach over the past 10 years to cover the spread in 20 games during two consecutive seasons. His predecessors were Meyer at Utah and then Florida and George O’Leary at Central Florida.

The Auburn head coach is also 8-1 ATS when a favorite. He is also 14-3 against the number in games that are non-conference.

Mercer Upset Helps Books Win Big on Friday at NCAA Tournament

Friday’s second day of the Round of 64 was a day for the books as sportsbooks rolled to a big win in the NCAA Tournament.

One of the big reasons the sports books such as Bovada and sportsbook.com did so well on Friday was the huge upset of Mercer over Duke.

Thursday’s first day of the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament ended up being a small winner for sportsbooks. However, on Friday, the games gave sportsbooks such as betonline and topbet a huge win as favorites were just 7-9 against the number with four underdogs not only covering by winning outright, which included the aforementioned Mercer upset of Duke 78-71. That win by Mercer paid out +750 on the books’ moneyline.

Duke had been one of the most popular public bets for the week and ruined many bettors’ parlays.

UCLA was sluggish during the first half of their game against Tulsa late Friday night but came back to win 76-57 to cover a spread of 9 points, which the books as many had put their money behind Tulsa.

The handle thus far on the NCAA Tournament has been very large and has surprised many bookmakers. Usually the first Thursday of March Madness handles more money due to more money being available as it is the first round of the tournament.

Once a bettor loses their bankroll, smaller amount are put up.

Usually Friday ends up being a difficult day for the house as parlays are carried over from the previous day that puts the house at a big risk.

That was not the case for this year’s tournament with bettors doing okay on day one, giving them more money to lay on Friday’s lineup of 16 games.

On Thursday, the favorites finished the day at 8-7-1 against the spread with just two underdogs Dayton and North Dakota state winning outright.

An important game for the books on Thursday ended up being Oregon vs. BYU. The Ducks ended up cruising to victory by 21 points to cover as a 5.5-point spread as the favorite. However, that blow to the books was lessened when the normally high scoring teams did not pay the OVER scoring just 153 points on a 158 point line.

The two teams played earlier in the season with Oregon winning in OT 100-96 to go well OVER that game’s 173 total.

With Saturday behind and the books taking another strong day, Sunday’s games will whittle the field to its final 16 for next Thursday and Friday’s Sweet 16 lineup, which should be interesting to see how the bettors go.

However, there are still 8 games to be played on Sunday that could give the public its first win or maintain the books solid first weekend start to the tournament.

NBA Trends at the All-Star Break

As the NBA starts its break for All-Star Weekend, there are a number of important betting storylines.

The All-Star break in the NBA is an excellent time for bettors to examine just how well teams did in certain betting situations such as against the spread, the over/under and on the road.

Home court has not meant as much this season as in seasons past. The visiting team has covered the spread in nearly 53.5% of this season’s games. Underdogs at home have only covered 46.7% of the time.

  • The best home record in the league is 18-10 ATS by the Indiana Pacers, while the worst record at home in the NBA is owned by the Philadelphia 76ers at 7-19 ATS. The Toronto Raptors and Dallas Mavericks both have records of 19-9 ATS on the road, while Cleveland is only 9-18 ATS on the road.
  • The Phoenix Suns the new dark horse in the NBA had a win total for the season at Bovada and topbet of 21.5 to start the season. Today, the Suns sit at 30-21. Phoenix is holding down the seventh spot in the Western Conference playoff race. The Suns also own the best record against the spread in the NBA at 32-17-2.
  • Toronto is one of the league’s biggest surprises sitting at 28-24, which is the third best in the Eastern Conference. However, if Toronto were in the West, they would be in 10th place.
  • Teams in the Western Conference have a record of 198-111 SU and 164-141-4 ATS versus teams from the Eastern Conference. Only Miami and Indiana in the East have a winning record versus opponents from the West.
  • Milwaukee is having a horrendous season to date. The Bucks are 9-43 SU and 20-32 ATS. Their ATS record is the NBA’s worst, while the Philadelphia 76ers are at 21-33 ATS, which is the second worst mark.
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have been an underdog in more games this season than any other team, yet they have excelled at it. In their 53 games played, the Lakers have been given the ‘dog label 45 times. To date, the Lakers are 27-18 ATS as an underdog.
  • Washington has done even better as a dog, as the Wizards are 20-12-1 when receiving points. At the same time, Miami and the San Antonio Spurs have each been a dog just four times the entire season.
  • The best chalk goes to the Indiana Pacers. On betonline and sportsbook.com, Indiana is 27-18 ATS when a favorite, which is tops in the league. Oklahoma City has done well as the chalk with a 26-20 ATS record.
  • For reasons unknown to most, the Cleveland Cavaliers were deemed the favorite in 18 games to this point in the season. The Cavs are just 4-14 ATS in those 18 games.
  • The OVER has cashed 69% of the time or 36 of 52 games that the Detroit Pistons have played this season. The UNDER has cashed in 61% of the games the Boston Celtics have played or 33 of their 54.
  • The longest current streak entering the All-Star break against the spread is held by Cleveland at four games. Both the Denver Nuggets and Atlanta Hawks are 0-5 ATS over their past 5 games overall.

Wagering Slows as Bettors Await Super Bowl Weather Report

The NFL has set up a contingency plan if Super Bowl XLVIII were to be faced with a foul-weather crisis in East Rutherford, New Jersey, which in February is not far from the realm of possibilities.

Just this past weekend, over a foot of snow was dumped on the ground in the area. However, that amount of snow would not be sufficient for NFL officials to change the date of the game.

If a snowstorm were to cripple New York City, its airports and surrounding area, which includes East Rutherford, then the NFL is set to change the game’s date to February 1, February 3 and even later if needed.

If the game were moved to another venue, it would be rough for the estimated 80,000 fans that will pack the stands on February 2 for the 6:30 pm kickoff.

When it comes to wagering, some bettors are not sure if the game were moved, if their wagers on Bovada, sportsbook.com, topbet or betonline would remain valid.

Often times, language accompanies bets that specifies that the particular even must take place at a specific location on a specific date.

For most sports books the only thing that will make the bet invalid is a change of venue geographically speaking.

That means if the game were moved to Philadelphia wagers would remain valid since it was in the same geographical zone, but if the game were to be played in South Florida, then the wagers would become invalid.

Regardless, if something like that were to happen, the best thing would be for each bettor to contact the sportsbook that is handling their wager and ask them directly.

Last Sunday when the line came out there was a surge of betting on the upcoming Super Bowl like never before. Bettors flipped the line from favoring Seattle to favoring Denver within minutes of the first posting.

However, since then the betting has quieted down with many bettors still undecided and reviewing all of the numbers, trends and possibilities from the wind speed on game day to the sickness of players leading up to the big day.

Most sportsbooks would be hit hard with a Denver and OVER, said one odds maker from Bovada. Many sportsbooks such as topbet have Denver -140/+120 on their money line, with the Broncos at -2.5 on the spread. The total points have been up and down all this first week between 47 and 48.

One big question that has bettors holding off is if the line will move up to -3 for Denver. Some odds makers believe the line will be bet up to -3, which will attract sharp money to take Seattle and the points.

Betting will pick up to full steam by midweek next week as the weather forecast becomes clearer.

Five Previous Super Bowls Have Featured Top Offense vs Top Defense

For all those bettors out there wondering how to go on the Super Bowl, review the history of the Super Bowl. This is a matchup of the league’s top offense against the league’s top defense.

In the 47 previous Super Bowls that has happened on five occasions. The theory is that offense sells the tickets, while the defense wins the championships. The question is will that hold true for Super Bowl 48.

The Denver Broncos have the league’s best offense. The team averaged 37.9 points a game, an NFL record. Seattle has the best defense against scoring allowing only 14.4 points a game.

According to stats found on the Internet, this will be the sixth time in Super Bowl history that the league’s top scoring offense faces the league’s top scoring defense.

With the Super Bowl line only being published for just over two days, the Broncos currently are the favorite by 2.5 points on most betting sites including sportsbook.com, Bovada, topbet and betonline. The total points on the same sites are currently sitting at 48.

If history is any indication in the five previous times the top offense faced the top defense, then Seattle should be favored. The team that had the top defense in those five previous Super Bowls that faced the top offense was 4-1 straight up.

The team with the top defense was 3-0 ATS as the favorite and 1-1 ATS as the underdog.

Three of the five Super Bowls featuring the top offense and top defense have cashed to the OVER in point total. In Super Bowl I no posted total was given.

Here are a few more stats to take into consideration from the five previous Super Bowls featuring the league’s top defense and top offense.

Super Bowl 1

Green Bay defeated Kansas City 35-10. The Packers defense sacked Len Dawson the Chiefs quarterback four times and an interception by Willie Wood put the game on ice. Green Bay owned the top defense that season giving up 11.6 points a game, while the Chiefs averaged 32 points scoring per game.

In Super Bowl 13, The Pittsburgh Steelers owned the league’s best defense and the Dallas Cowboys the best offense. Pittsburgh defeated Dallas 35-31.

The Steelers built an insurmountable lead of 18 points and the famed “Steel Curtain” held Dallas down the stretch. The Steelers covered a 3.5-point spread.

In Super Bowl 19, the San Francisco 49ers defeated the Miami Dolphins. The 49ers owned the best defense and the Dolphins the best offense. The 49ers owned the time of possession with a ground game and kept the Dolphins offense off the field. Dan Marino was sacked on four occasions and intercepted on two, in the game by the 49ers defense.

In Super Bowl 24, the 49ers defeated the Broncos 55-10. San Francisco owned the league’s best offense and it showed. Joe Montana threw for five touchdowns and San Francisco led by 24 point at the half.

The fifth and final Super Bowl similar to this year’s matchup was Super Bowl 25 in which the New York Giants beat the Buffalo Bills 20-19. New York owned the best defense, while Buffalo had Jim Kelly, Thurman Thomas and Andre Reed on the league’s best offense. The game ended on a missed field goal by Buffalo.

The bottom line is that the defense has come out on top more times than not when the top offense faces the top defense in the Super Bowl.

NFL Divisional Playoffs Odds and Ends

The NFL postseason continues this weekend with a slate of four games that should keep each football fanatics glued to the television for a good part of Saturday and Sunday.

The numbers, facts and figures of the four games are a great deal to digest for many interested in wagering on this four NFL games, but hopefully after reading this, things might be a bit clearer, but that is not a promise.

Seattle has a recent good record of covering the spread during the postseason. Since 2005, Seattle is 7-4 ATS during the playoffs. During that period, the Seahawks are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS when playing at home. If the historical numbers are not enough, Seattle this season on Bovada was 10-5 ATS as a favorite, which they are once again this week.

New Orleans is an ally to players who like the UNDER, in what has become commonplace albeit a little strange. Of the 17 games the Saints have played this season, 11 have cashed on the UNDER on topbet and betonline. New Orleans shut down the up-tempo offense of Philadelphia last Saturday as the Saints held onto the ball close to 35 minutes, with over 50% of their plays on the ground offensively. Doing the same against Seattle would not surprise anyone. However, Seattle’s defense is far superior to Philadelphia.

New England has a record of 6-2 ATS at home this season with wins versus New Orleans and Denver. However, New England has not done the best as a favorite as they are just 6-6 ATS when laying points.

Additionally, New England had close calls when favored by large numbers. The Patriots beat Buffalo by 2 points when favored by 10; they beat the Jets by 3 points when favored by 11; and Cleveland by one point when favored by 10.

Indianapolis is 11-7 ATS over the two seasons that Andrew Luck has been their quarterback. This season along, the Colts were 5-2 ATS as an underdog. Indy is also 2-0 SU and ATS when a dog by over a touchdown, but struggled last season in that role at 0-3 SU and ATS.

This season, as they are this weekend, the Broncos are laying over a touchdown in their game versus San Diego. During the regular season as a favorite by 7.5 points or higher, Denver was 7-4 ATS and an impressive 10-1 SU.

Over their past seven games, San Diego is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS, with three wins outright as an underdog against tough AFC opponents in Cincinnati, Denver and Kansas City. The Chargers defense has given up just 20 points once over its past six games.

The 49ers will put huge air miles on their frequent flyers accounts if they hope to reach the Super Bowl. Their game this week in Carolina is their third straight game on the round and the fourth in the past five weeks. Can you say jet lag?

Carolina’s point total for their game against San Francisco is 42, the two played to a 10-9 Panthers win the when they met during the regular season. The possibility of high scoring is still there with two strong offenses, but the game should have a lot of three and outs.

Patriots vs Ravens: Pats Poor Road Team Against the Spread

Just two weeks remain in the NFL regular season and a number of teams are either fighting for a division championship or a wildcard spot in the postseason.

Two of those teams meet today in Baltimore when the Baltimore Ravens host the New England Patriots in a rematch of the AFC Championship Game from last season that was won by the Ravens 28-13.

Baltimore, which is 8-6 SU and 7-7 ATS, has won four straight games. The Ravens control their own destiny in the battle for the AFC North. If Baltimore can win today versus New England and next week against Cincinnati, they will win the division.

New England, which is 10-4 SU and 6-8 ATS, needs to win today or have Miami lose one of their two remaining games to win the AFC East title. New England is also battling with Denver for the No. 1 seed for the conference. However, the Patriots, like the Ravens have yet to secure a playoff berth.

These two teams have met six times prior to this game over the past four seasons. Last season, the Ravens defeated the Patriots during the regular season and in the AFC Championship.

Currently Bovada has the line with Baltimore favored by 2 points, with the point total resting on 45. However, on topbet the line opened with Baltimore -1.5 and a total of 43. Check those two sites and others such as betonline and sportsbook.com prior to kickoff for the latest in point spreads, point totals and the all-important weather.

The Ravens have a record of 3-2-1 ATS versus New England in their last six meetings head to head. All three of Baltimore’s wins ATS versus New England, have come during the playoffs, while Baltimore is 0-2-1 ATS during the regular since 2009 against the Patriots.

New England on the other hand is only 1-6 ATS playing on the road this season, while the Ravens are 4-3 ATS playing at home.

In the 14 games Baltimore has played to date this season, just five have finished OVER.

New England is 0-3 ATS in their past three games overall.

New England’s Tom Brady knows the Baltimore defense well. He will take what they give him and at times go over the top to stretch the defensive secondary.

With numerous injuries to receivers and tight ends, Brady has two main targets in this game, wide outs Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman. Shane Vereen at running back has turned into a popular target for Brady out of the backfield.

Baltimore’s defensive front is tough, but their secondary has been suspect at times this season. However, they played well versus Detroit on Monday night holding Calvin Johnson the All-Pro wide receiver in check.

Baltimore’s offense is deep now that Dennis Pitta has returned as the tight end. Joe Flacco has Jacoby Jones and Torrey Smith at wide out and Pitta at tight end, which will create havoc for the secondary of New England.

Some odds makers believe the line is inflated in Baltimore’s favor and that New England should be favored at -1. Regardless, check Bovada and other reputable sites such as topbet, sportsbook.com and betonline for the latest lines prior to the 4:25 p.m. kickoff of this game.

Pick: New England 28-24

Falcons Fading Away, Betting Market Catching Seahawks

The Atlanta Falcons host the Seattle Seahawks in NFL action on Sunday. The Falcons have faded away into oblivion this season, while the Seahawks remain in first place in the NFC West.

Nevertheless, the betting market seems to have finally caught up with the Seahawks. After having a great record against the spread, Seattle has not covered in four of its past five games.

Nevertheless, the Seahawks visit Atlanta on Sunday with major sportsbooks like sportsbook.com, topbet, betonline and Bovada as a substantial favorite over the floundering Falcons, who have been called out recently by their head coach for not making an effort to win.

Atlanta has been hit hard by injuries and does not have the weapons on offense it had last season when they beat the Seahawks 30-28 on a last second Matt Ryan scoring drive that eliminated the Seattle from the playoffs.

Ryan has played subpar football of late. The Atlanta quarterback lost Julio Jones his talented wide receiver to injury for the season and Roddy White another receiver has been in and out of the lineup with injuries. Ryan has thrown seven picks over his past two games.

The line at Bovada currently has Seattle favored by 5.5 points with the point total sitting on 45.

The line opened last Sunday with Seattle at -7. However, it has been bet down steadily all week and was at 6 and 5.5 on Saturday.

The dominance that Atlanta once had at home is no longer existent. The Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their past seven games at home and have not covered in five of their past six games overall.

Seattle on the other hand is 7-2 ATS in its past nine games on the road.

Seattle is 4-0 SU since losing to Indianapolis. However, Seattle has not been too impressive the past two games. They rallied last week against Tampa Bay after falling down 21-0 and a week prior to that needed a defensive stand at the goal line to beat St. Louis.

Ryan and the Falcons started 2-3, but since then the season has been turned upside down. Over their past two games, both on the road, the Falcons have lost to Arizona and Carolina.

Ryan has nine touchdown passes and a single interception in Atlanta’s home games this season. Steven Jackson the veteran running back returned to the lineup, but could not jump-start a running game that is ranked No. 32 in the league.

Atlanta is 2-6 SU and ATS and is for all intents and purposes out of hope for the postseason.

Many bookmakers keep waiting for Atlanta to bust out of their funk, but the tools are not in the shop to fix the broken pieces this season.

With no running game and the team’s top receivers injured, the Falcons season is finished.

The Seahawks have covered seven straight games in which they are 3.5 to 9.5-point favorites.

Home games for Atlanta have been high scoring averaging 54 total points.

Pick: Seattle and the OVER.

Dallas as Profitable as Any Team Against the Spread

The NFL season does not slow down for any team as week 8 has arrived with key NFC matchups on tap. One of those key games is between the Dallas Cowboys and the host Detroit Lions.

Dallas is 4-3 straight up, but an impressive 6-1 against the spread. Detroit is 4-3 SU and ATS.

Dallas leads the NFC East and owns the best mark in the league ATS at 6-1. The Cowboys have covered in their past three games. Detroit is just a half game out of first in the NFC North behind the Green Bay Packers and tied with the Chicago Bears.

The Lions went down to defeat last week against Cincinnati 27-24 and will be looking to roar back to a win on Sunday.

Both the Lions and Cowboys can be described as having offenses that are above average and defenses that are below average. Dallas will have its hands full with Matthew Stafford the Lions quarterback who has thrown for eight touchdowns and one interception over the past three weeks.

Online betting sites such as Bovada and topbet have the Lions at -3 as the favorite. Other sites such as sportsbook.com and betonline have the total points on 51 for the over/under.

On most books Detroit opened at -3 and even though on some sites like Bovada it at one time was up to -3.5, the spread has come down again to -3.

In the past four home games for Detroit, the OVER is 4-0, and is at 16-7-1 over the past 24 games for Detroit following a loss ATS.

The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS over their past six games in October and Dallas is 4-1 ATS over its past five games against teams with winning record.

The Lions are 8-18 ATS over their past 26 games versus NFC opponents, but are 11-4 ATS over their past 15 games played during October.

The last time the teams played head to head was in 2011 and the Lions won 34-30 in Dallas.

Even taking into consideration the home field advantage for Detroit, this game should be more of a pick ‘em than one with Detroit -3. Some would even make a strong case that the Cowboys should be the favorite.

Some situational trends favor Dallas, who even when opponents out gain them, find a way to win such as with two special teams returns for touchdowns. At 3 or 3.5, this is a must to play Dallas.

The 51 total seems low for two teams with little defense and high-powered offenses. The Cowboys scored 48 and allowed 51 against Denver. This game should be high powered. Smart money is taking the OVER along with the Cowboys.