SNF: Patriots +3 on the Road Against the Colts

NFL Sunday Night Football will feature one of the week’s best matchups when the New England Patriots, the leaders in the AFC East, visit the Indianapolis Colts the leaders in the AFC South.

New England has had Indianapolis’ number of late winning 4 straight head-to-head games with the Colts.

The current line nonetheless has the Colts favored by 3 point with the total points sitting at 58.

The OVER/UNDER of 58 is extremely high. According to Bovada and sportsbook.com, only 11 games in the NFL since 1978 have had a total that closed at 58 or higher.

Twelve games have closed their lines at 57.5 point or higher and 16 have closed at 57 points or higher, according to topbet and betonline.

For games that had a closing total of 57 points or higher the OVER has cashed in 9 of the 16.

A large amount of money has been put down on Indianapolis. The Colts are 6-3 straight up and 7-2 against the spread. However, as a favorite, the Colts have covered in 6 out 8 games and 3 out of 4 played at home.

Indianapolis has had good success defeating top competition playing at home during the three seasons Andrew Luck has been their quarterback.

In 2012, Indy defeated Green Bay and Houston at home and in 2013 defeated both Seattle and Denver at Lucas Oil Stadium.

However, Indianapolis were not the favorites in any of those four games and now Colts supporters much lay 3 to the Patriots

The Patriots at +3 could be an interesting choice. Since 2000, New England is 29-15 ATS when receiving 3 or more points. In 50% of those games, they have won outright.

New England is currently 7-2 SU and 5-4 against the number but over its past 5 games is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS.

New England is also 2-0 SU and ATS over its past two games against Luck. In those two games, the Pats have outscored Luck’s Colts 102-46. Overall, New England is 4-0 SU in its past 4 games versus Indianapolis.

 

Trends to Consider

  • Indianapolis is 17-4 SU and 16-5 ATS when playing at home since 2012.
  • New England is 14-5 SU and 12-7 ATS during the month of November since 2009.
  • The OVER has cashed in each of the past 5 games between the Pats and Colts.

 

The two teams are led by two talented quarterbacks. New England’s Tom Brady is a future Hall of Famer who has played exceptionally well the past five games and always plays well in big games.

Andrew Luck leads the league in passing yards this season and is on track to eclipse the record of Peyton Manning set last season for passing yards in one season.

Prediction: Three points is tough. The Pats have played well of late but the Colts are tough at home. The best play is taking the OVER as both team teams are 7-2 to the OVER in the past 9 games and the Patriots are 6-0 on the OVER in their past six games.

Take your pick on the spread, but the OVER is a strong play.

Philadelphia Visits Dallas on Sunday Night Football

Dallas and Philadelphia meets for the second time in four weeks, each in search of a much-needed win.

Just six days after failing miserably under the lights, Philadelphia (3-8, 1-4 road) returns to primetime to take on Dallas (5-6, 2-3 home) on Sunday Night Football.

The Eagles’ well-reported nosedive took another turn for the worse as the Carolina Panthers sauntered home with a 30-22 victory, leaving Philadelphia staring blankly at a seven-game losing streak.

The Cowboys meanwhile have had their own struggles – not least last week’s division loss to Washington – but remain within touching distance of the Wild Card chasing pack.

Division Foes Square Off

Dallas will be looking to defeat Philadelphia for the second time this season, keeping its postseason hopes alive in the process.

The Eagles should be fighting for respect and their figurative lives, but whether the team shows up remains to be seen. Plenty believe that head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Michael Vick will both be goners by the end of the seas, while Bovada has Philadelphia as 5/1 to lose its remaining five games of the season, conjuring up a 12-game losing streak.

Whilst this will not be the big time division rivalry we’ve come to expect over the years, there is plenty at stake as the two sides take the field in Cowboys Stadium this Sunday night.

Home Sweet Home?

When Jerry Jones built the modern spectacle that is Cowboys Stadium, he expected its residents to win. For one season, he got his wish. The Cowboys posted a 6-2 home record in 2009, the $1.3 billion stadium’s inaugural season. The team even went on to defeat Philadelphia 34-13 in the playoffs that season.

Since the 2009 season, the Cowboys have been anything but dominant at home. 2010’s 2-6 home record was a woeful low point, and part of a 9-12 record at the stadium that has seen the Cowboys almost succumb to irrelevancy.

The Cowboys are 16-14 at Cowboys Stadium all time, and host a Philadelphia Eagles side that has so far posted a 2-2 record at the venue.

Looking for an Edge

Dallas leads the all-time head-to-head 60-47 but it has been Philadelphia that has gotten the better of recent matchups. Since Andy Reid took over coaching duties in 1999, the Eagles have posted a 17-11 record against the Cowboys, including an 8-6 record in Dallas.

Dallas has not won a home game against the Eagles since Jan. 9, 2010, the side’s sole playoff victory since 1997. That win actually came six days after the Cowboys defeated the Eagles at Cowboys Stadium in Week 17 of the regular season.

The Cowboys defeated the Eagles 38-28 in Week 10, a game that saw Texas side come back from a 17-10 deficit late in the first half. Prior to the victory, Dallas had lost three of five against the Eagles.

Whilst the Eagles have fared well against the Cowboys in recent years, bookmakers like Dallas at home, in this game at least. The Cowboys opened as nine-point favorites, a figure that has risen to 10½ ahead of kickoff.

The Eagles have been horrific when it comes to covering the spread. The team’s 1-9-1 ATS record is the worst in the league. Dallas hasn’t fared much better (4-7-0 ATS), but compared to the Eagles, the Cowboys look like a safe bet.

The over/under is set at 43. Both teams have seen the total go over in five games and under in six games this season. The game earlier this season saw a massive 66 points put up on the board, which would suggest taking the over was sensible, but in reality that was the first time the two teams had combined for more than 43 points in four games. The last ten games between the sides have split evenly in going over and under the 43-point marker.

Week 10 NFL Betting Tips

Charles Tillman and the Chicago Bears will welcome the Houston Texans on Sunday Night Football.

Week 10 in the NFL is accompanied by a slew of match-ups that will have a big-game feel to them and a whole host of postseason implications resting on them. Here’s a look at the big three, if you will, and how they are likely to pan out come the end of Sunday’s slate.

 

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints

Atlanta (8-0, 4-0 road) will take its undefeated streak on the road this weekend, traveling to the Superdome to take on New Orleans (3-5, 2-2 home).

Until the Falcons beat a quality opponent, their unbeaten record will come with an asterisk. Unfortunately for the Falcons, as it stands, only one team (NY Giants) is left on the schedule with a winning record. That being said, four division games remain, each of which will pose a tough threat.

New Orleans is looking for win for the fourth time in five games, a statistic that would certainly suggest the Saints are finally righting the ship. That makes New Orleans a dangerous team this weekend.

Both teams have excelled at passing the football this season, so expect more of the same. However, both sides are porous when it comes to defending the rush, so were one to take advantage of the running game – as New Orleans dis last week against Philadelphia – sufficient progress could be made.

Odds: Atlanta has become a three-point favorite after the spread opened at evens. The over/under is 54, up one-half point on opening.

Take: New Orleans – Can you ever remember an undefeated team this late in the season that wasn’t favored over a team with a 3-5 record? That’s how this one opened, and although Atlanta is a narrow favorite now, New Orleans is worth the gamble, particularly as the side has won 10 of the last 12 meetings. There’s little chance that this will be anything but a tight finish though. Take the total to go over; both teams rank in the top eight in the league in scoring.

 

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles

It’s do-or-die time in the NFC East already, as the Dallas Cowboys (3-5, 2-3 road) visit the Philadelphia Eagles (3-5, 2-2 home).

These two long-term rivals are both desperately in need of a win if they’re to catch the Giants in the NFC East or book a Wild Card spot in the playoffs. Both coaches may well be on the hot seat also, as the teams have underachieved.

For Dallas the major problem has been turnovers. For Philadelphia, consistent play calling and protecting the quarterback have turned a promising start into a miserable season.

There’s a certain amount of parity between the sides that goes beyond the team’s records. Dallas is 14th in the league in scoring, while Philadelphia is 15th. Dallas is 18th when it comes to opponents scoring while Philadelphia is 19th.

Dallas leads the all-time head-to-head 59-47 but Philadelphia has won three of the last four including two straight.

Odds: After opening as two-point favorites, the Eagles are now two-point underdogs. The over/under is 44½, one point lower that at opening.

Take: Dallas – Philadelphia hasn’t won three straight against the Cowboys since 2004, and won’t buck that trend this weekend. The lack in face of bookmakers, who have adjusted the favorite in this one, is just. The Eagles are 1-6-1 ATS this season, so take the Cowboys to cover the spread. Take the under; 10 games involving the Cowboys and Eagles have seen the total go under.

 

Houston Texans @ Chicago Bears

And finally, the biggest game of the weekend, and perhaps the season so far.

Houston (7-1, 3-0 road) takes its AFC best record into Soldier Field to take on a Chicago (7-1, 4-0 home) team that trails only Atlanta in the NFC.

Like Atlanta, Chicago has faced some criticism for a soft opening schedule, having only beaten one side with a winning record. Unlike the Falcons, Chicago’s road to the Super Bowl gets much tougher, with seven of its last eight coming against opponents with a winning record.

Chicago has gotten a lot of offensive assistance from its defense this season. The Bears’ have returned seven interceptions for touchdowns and forced 28 turnovers in total. Charles Tillman forced four fumbles by himself last week against Tennessee. But Houston will not be as easy a mark as the Titans.

The Texans have turned the ball over just six times this season, complimenting what is one of, if not the most balanced team in the league. The side ranks fourth in scoring and third in opponents’ scoring. Believe it or not, the Texans defense, which ranks fourth and second in pass and rush defense, is better on paper than the Bears.

Odds: Chicago is one-point favorites after the spread opened even. The over/under has dropped from 43 to 40.

Take: Chicago – Homefield advantage may be the only factor separating these two sides so it’s worth taking the Bears to win a very close one. With the spread at one point, the Bears will cover. This one has all the markings of an epic defensive struggle, so take the total to go under.

 

Week 10 Schedule

Thursday: Indianapolis 27-10 Jacksonville

Sunday: (1 PM ET) Oakland @ Baltimore | Denver @ Carolina | NY Giants @ Cincinnati | Tennessee @ Miami | Detroit @ Minnesota | Buffalo @ New England | Atlanta @ New Orleans | San Diego @ Tampa Bay; (4:05 PM ET) NY Jets @ Seattle; (4:25 PM ET) Dallas @ Philadelphia | St. Louis @ San Francisco; (8:20 PM ET) Houston @ Chicago

Monday: (8:30 PM ET) Kansas City @ Pittsburgh

Bye: Arizona, Cleveland, Green Bay, Washington

Atlanta Hosts Dallas on Sunday Night Football

Tony Romo's 13 interceptions have been a huge problem for the Cowboys this season, but his 19-2 record in November will give the unbeaten Atlanta Falcons something to think about on Sunday Night Football.

As Sunday Night Football rolls around again this week, viewers will get their chance to see the unbeaten Atlanta Falcons host the reeling Dallas Cowboys.

This marquee match-up between the team with the only perfect record in the league and America’s favorite team will have bettors on the edge of their seats. It’s highly likely that they’ll remain on the edge of their seats until the very end as well.

If you’re unsure who to pick in this one and need a few pointers, read on to find a few nuggets of truth that may sway you one way or another.

 

Unbeaten Falcons Looking for More

There’s still an air of criticism surrounding the Atlanta Falcons (7-0, 3-0 home), and rightfully so.

The Georgia side may well be perfect but that is a record achieved against a very soft schedule. Atlanta has faced just one team (Denver) that currently has a winning record. The team’s opponents have gone a combined 19-33 (.365), hardly a record that is going to be imposing to any semi-decent side. But, as the old adage goes, you are what your record says.

Atlanta will look to ride this unbeaten streak further towards the playoffs. And ride the Falcons can. At this point in time, the schedule going forward is almost as soft as that which has passed. Future opponents have a record of 27-38 (.415), and only one team with a winning record (NY Giants) lies in wait.

Of course there’s a big difference between what happens on paper and what happens on the gridiron. With five games remaining against divisional rivals, Atlanta can expect the run to the postseason to be tougher than it appears. And it might not take until next week’s showdown with New Orleans for the Falcons to chalk one up in the loss column.

 

Dire Times in Big D

Anyway you slice it up, Dallas (3-4, 2-2 road) has had a bizarre season so far. It’s not that the Cowboys’ 3-4 record is that strange. The team has certainly played like a 3-4 team for much of the year. It’s not even that there is a huge imbalance between the almost non-existent running game and the passing game. It’s the fact that this is a team with obvious talent, but nothing to show for it.

Dallas has the number three passing offense in the league in terms of yards per game (297.3). It also has the number three pass defense in the league (187.7 YPG). Those two statistics should translate to a high-scoring offense akin to New England or New Orleans. It doesn’t.

Dallas scores just 19.6 PPG (25th). Part of this is down to a weak rushing game that has seen neither DeMarco Murray nor Felix Jones put in any kind of consistent play. Murray (foot) will be missing for the third straight game Sunday. Part of it is down to Tony Romo.

Romo has thrown a completion rate of 65 percent this season with nine touchdowns. He’s even ran one in, putting him one behind Murray for the team lead in rushing touchdowns. But he’s thrown 13 interceptions! Far too many drives have finished with Romo giving the ball to the other side.

If the Cowboys are to achieve anything against the Falcons on Sunday night it starts with looking after the football. In an ideal world, Romo would hand the ball off and let the Cowboys’ running game punish a weak Atlanta rush defense. That perfect world wouldn’t include Murray out and Jones trying to cope with a niggling injury. Come kickoff time, the Cowboys may have no option but to put all of their eggs in the basket that is Romo’s inaccurate arm.

But then again, Tony Romo is 19-2 in the month of November!

 

Looking for an Edge

Dallas leads the all-time head-to-head 16-8 and has been dominant in recent years. The Cowboys have won seven of the last 10 meetings, including the last time the two sides met, a 37-21 victory in October 2009. Dallas is 7-5 all-time when playing the Falcons in Atlanta.

Atlanta is favorite heading into this one. A three-point advantage has risen to four points as kickoff approaches.

Dallas has gone 3-4 ATS this season while Atlanta is 5-2 ATS. The two games dropped by Atlanta came in close wins over Oakland and Carolina, and go some way to suggesting that the Falcons are not as dominant as their record might suggest.

The over/under is 47½. The last two times the sides met, the total exceeded that number, but neither has rewarded bettors taking the over this season. Both sides have seen the total go under four times in seven games. Dallas has also seen the total go under in seven of its last 10 games and six of seven on the road. All signs point to taking the under this Sunday in Georgia.

Steelers Visit Bengals for Sunday Night Football

Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Cincinnati hoping to hold onto a fourth quarter lead.

It’s been a tough opening to the season for the Steelers (2-3, 0-3 road), who have endured their worst start to a season since Mike Tomlin took over the reins. This weekend, Pittsburgh heads to Cincinnati (3-3, 1-1 home) looking to steady the ship and return to winning ways.

Cincinnati, after a strong start to the season, is reeling, having lost two straight. Crucially, the Bengals fell last weekend to Cleveland, giving the team a 1-2 divisional record and a proverbial hole to climb out of. Needless to say, this week’s edition of Sunday Night Football comes with a must-win clause for both sides.

Bengals Look To Take Advantage of Banged-Up Steelers

As a rule of thumb, it’s taboo to blame injuries for a team’s win/loss record but you have to feel sorry for the Steelers. A banged-up offensive line has made things tough for Ben Roethlisberger, but not as tough as the absence of a running game.

With starter Rashard Mendenhall sidelined to start the season, Pittsburgh has ranked 31st in running the football, gaining a paltry 74.8 yards per game. Mendenhall returned to the field for clashes against Philadelphia and Tennessee, but now finds himself with an Achilles injury.

Pittsburgh’s offensive woes have been exacerbated by the team’s inability to close out games. In all three losses this season, the Steelers have had the lead in the fourth quarter, only to fall behind.

Cincinnati will hope to take advantage of both Pittsburgh’s injuries and its late-game struggles. Doing so could go some way to masking the Bengals’ own issues.

The Bengals started the season looking sharp, despite losing in Week 1 to the Ravens. Wins over Cleveland, Washington and Jacksonville had the team looking like the playoff team of last year, but the past two weeks have highlighted some chinks in the armor. Neither Miami nor Cleveland was expected to win, yet win they did, leaving Andy Dalton and Co. looking down the barrel of a 3-3 record.

Cincinnati’s strength this season has been passing the football. The team is averaging 282.8 yards per game, good enough for eighth in the league. Passing yards could be at a premium against Pittsburgh, who is giving up just 200.8 yards per game through the air, a record that’s fourth in the league.

The Bengals aren’t much better than Pittsburgh running the football, averaging 99.3 yards per game, ranking 21st in the league. Don’t expect BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Co. to get any help from the Steelers either. Pittsburgh is ninth in the league at stopping the run.

Looking for an Edge

This AFC North rivalry has a wealth of history behind it, and not much of it reads well for the Bengals.

Pittsburgh leads the all-time series 52-32, and has won 10 of the last 13 games and 16 of the lass 22 if you want to go further back. This includes a current four-game winning streak.

Cincinnati last beat the Steelers in 2009 – a season in which it swept the regular season series – but will be more than aware that Pittsburgh has taken 10 of the last 11 at Paul Brown Stadium.

Pittsburgh enters the game as marginal favorites (-1½), a figure that goes a long way to detailing the uncertainty oddsmakers have about both sides. Neither side however has performed well against the spread of late, with the Steelers compiling a 1-4 record – including a 0-3 record on the road – and the Bengals tallying 2-3-1. Cincinnati’s woes date back to last year: the team us 3-9-3 ATS over its last 15 games.

The over/under is 46. Bettors looking for an edge are out of luck. Whilst the total has gone under in six of eight Cincinnati games – and seven of nine Bengals home games – the total has gone over in eight of 12 Steeler games.

Separating the sides ahead of Sunday night’s kickoff is tough, and indicative of how close run this particular AFC North race could be this year. Of course, it’s too early to rule any scenarios out, but it’s already beginning to appear that both sides will be trailing the Ravens come January.