Patriots/OVER Hurts Books in Super Bowl XLIX

Super Bowl XLIX has concluded with the New England Patriots winning their fourth Vince Lombardi trophy. The 28-24 victory over Seattle resulted in a four-way teaser victory for many bettors.

The parlay of New England and the OVER also cashed. That means for many sports books there was a less than ideal finish to the NFL season as the books were weighed down with public action in the form of teasers and with parlays with each team linked to the OVER. The majority of books will most likely end up on top but only with a very small win.

Last season’s Super Bowl set a new record for the handle with $119 million and it seems that will be surpassed due to a flood of betting in Vegas prior to the kick off on Sunday.

Sites such as Bovada and sportsbook.com lost teasers as well as parlays, but were able to make up from their futures, props and parlay cards to put them in the black.

As has become customary, the public bettor took the OVER and this time get the better of sharp money, most of whom were on the UNDER. According to topbet and betonline, the total before kickoff was hovering at 47 to 47.5.

The worst case scenario for the books was New England and the OVER but even though that took place, the 350 props helped them to a win.

The three yard TD pass from Tom Brady to wide receiver Julian Edelman with only 2:02 remaining combined with the Malcolm Brown interception at the goal line with only 26 seconds remaining in the game sent backers of the Patriots cashing their tickets.

Not all books were able to come out as winners however. Some took a large amount of action on the Patriots thus the day was not as good for them and even after the props and futures were factored into the equation, the day ended in the red.

One Vegas bookmaker always has higher wagers than others and said it took in one wager of seven figures on New England with a number of others of six figures. With bets of that size, the impact of parlays, teasers and props are minimized.

Many of the books were hurt with the interception by New England to end the game and prevent Seattle from scoring and winning. A win by Seattle and the OVER would have give the books a much better day since the majority of money was on the Pats.

Despite the parlays and teasers hitting the books hard, the intense betting on prop bets means bookmakers will likely come out overall on top.

Why New England Will Win Super Bowl XLIX

The New England Patriots will play against the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLIX today in Arizona.

This is the sixth Super Bowl for New England in the past 14 year, which is the most in league history over a span f 15 or fewer years.

New England’s 12 wins during the regular season was the fifth consecutive season of 12 or more wins. The Pats claimed the AFC East division for the eleventh time in 12 seasons.

The offense for New England was No. 4 in scoring at 29.3 points per game. New England played 7 of the league’s top 10 passing defenses with impressive numbers.

Seattle is ranked No. 1 in pass defense. However, of late the Seahawks have played quarterbacks such as Colin Kaepernick, Drew Stanton, Mark Sanchez, Shaun Hill and Ryan Lindley not your lineup of All-Pros at quarterback.

Brady had plenty of time in the pocket this season with the fourth fewest sacks at 26. Seattle’s quarterback Russell Wilson by contrast was sacked 42 times.

Seattle has a strong defensive secondary, but the group is banged up. Earl Thomas one of the safeties, dislocated a shoulder against Green Bay in the NFC Championship and will not be 100%.

This season the Pats won six of its seven games versus playoff teams, with the only loss in Week 13 at Green Bay 26-21.

The Green Bay loss was the only one New England suffered against NFC opponents.

In its six wins against playoff teams, the Patriots scored 34 points or more in each game, including 42 points or more against three AFC teams Denver, Cincinnati and Indianapolis (twice).

Seattle has not played well during this postseason. Carolina was able to out gain them and the game was much closer than the final score. In Seattle’s win against Green Bay, it was more about what Green Bay did wrong to give away the NFC Championship. The Packers controlled the game from start to finish, but failed miserably on several occasions to put the game out of reach of Seattle.

Seattle cannot afford to start slow or turn the ball over against the potent offense of New England. Seattle will likely not score 16 points from special teams and its defense as it did in last season’s Super Bowl rout of Denver.

New England is 20-4 ATS in games with point spreads between -3 and +3.

The last time the teams met head to head Seattle won 24-23, but New England held Marshawn Lynch to just 41 rushing yards. In five games against New England in his career, including while at Buffalo, Lynch is averaging just 53 yards per game.

The defense for Seattle has a hard time with tight ends. Can you say Rob Gronkowski?

Take New England 27-24.

UNDER Looks Solid for Super Bowl XLIX

As promised today’s storyline will be why the UNDER could cash in Sunday’s Super Bowl XLIX between the AFC Champion New England Patriots and the NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks.

The Super Bowl odds makers are receiving much more action to date on the UNDER bringing the opening line from 49 down to 47.

Much of that is due to the strength of the Seattle defense the last eight games. The Seahawks have allowed just 78 points over their past 8 games played overall, but 39 of those have been in their last two playoff games.

According to Bovada and betonline, the majority of wagering on the Super Bowl will take place between late Friday and Sunday’s kickoff.

According to topbet and sportsbook.com, last year’s Super Bowl opened at 48.5 and was bet down to 47.5 points and this season’s game is very similar.

Why the UNDER is a Good Play

  • In the two previous Super Bowls played in Arizona, both cashed on the UNDER.
  • New England has only scored 17 points in each of its past two Super Bowls,
  • Seattle has played in just two Super Bowls, allowing 21 points in Super Bowl XL and eight last season in Super Bowl XLVIII.
  • Despite leading the league in scoring, the Patriots on the road average just 25.5 point per game compared to Gillette Stadium at 34.4 points per game.
  • In its past three games away from Gillette Stadium the Patriots games have all cashed on the UNDER.
  • Similar to the Patriots, Seattle’s last game on the road was December 21. The Seahawks in their past three road games have given up a combined 23 points, with the UNDER going 2-1.
  • Seattle was the league leader in points allowed at 16.3 per game during the regular season, while New England was No. 6 at 17.2 per game.
  • Seattle is impressive in giving up points in the second half. In its past eight games, Seattle has given up a combined 23 points during the second half. Seattle has won each of the eight while covering 7 of the 8.
  • The highest point total Seattle has had all season was 48. That occurred on two occasions with both games cashing on the UNDER.
  • Under Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, the UNDER is 17-11 during the postseason for the Patriots, which includes the UNDER of 4-1 in the Patriots five previous Super Bowls with Brady/Belichick.
  • The one game that cashed OVER of the past five Super Bowls the Patriots have played in was the lowest total they have played to at 38 points.
  • New England beat Carolina 32-29 in 2004 in that game. Two of the quarters in that game were scoreless, while two others featured 24 and 37 points scored.

Public Still Behind Patriots, Sharp Money On Seahawks


While the New England Patriots -1 has been the consensus line across most sportsbooks both online and in Vegas, with most of the early money on the Patriots, one bookmaker still believes things will move in the opposite direction as the Sunday kickoff starts to approach.

At online bookmakers such as Bovada and topbet, as much as 2.5 times more action has been taken on New England than on Seattle.

Most of the public is still high on the Patriots but many odds makers believe the point will arrive when money starts showing up on the weekend for the Seahawks. The quiet before the storm is how is happens during the two week period between the conference championships and the Super Bowl.

Once Friday arrives, things will change, according to online bookmakers betonline and sportsbook.com.

One bookmaker said he has had just on bet of six-figures for the Super Bowl thus far and that was for New England.

However, he said sharp money was favoring Seattle. So the thought is that the public was start to realize the same team that routed Denver in the Super Bowl last year is back again and their defense is still No. 1 in the league.

Some bookmakers moved the line from Patriots -1 to -1.5 and finally began taking money for Seattle, which prompted them to move it back down to Patriots -1.

A large amount of sharp action at New England -1.5 caused the bookmaker to move the line back down.

On the point total, the number is continuing to be bet down. Almost every bookmaker has the total sitting at 48, but a few here and there have it at 47.5.

It is anticipated that public money will go OVER and that could prompt bookmakers to move it back up to 48 or even 48.5.

Sharp money has taken the UNDER. The line opened as high as 49 and it has dropped to 48.5 and to 48, with a few at 47.5. However, books tend to stay on the high side since the public likes the OVER. However, the pros are definitely taking the UNDER.

The Super Bowl parties will start Sunday across the country in bars and homes from coast to coast, as the single most popular sporting event in the U.S. prepares to kickoff.

Bookmakers are expecting a surge in action from the public starting Friday and not letting up until just before the opening kickoff on Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET from University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

More Super Bowl Stats to Consider Before Placing A Bet

Leading up to the Super Bowl there is a vast amount of data and information to review when deciding on what team to choose to win or cover in the big game. More information is available if trying to determine whether the game will be high scoring or a defensive struggle.

Sportsbooks such as Bovada and betonline, amongst others have trends, head-to-head stats and other information for the bettors to review prior to making his or her pick. Other sites such as topbet and sportsbook.com provide the most up to date stats, injuries reports and in-depth analysis for the bettors.

Below are even more Stats to Ponder

  • This season when Seattle and New England are winners of the coin flip to start the game, the two are a combined 18-2, when the two lose the flip, the results are just 10-6 in the win column.
  • Seattle and New England opened the season 8-5, but since are 20-3.
  • Seattle and New England have allowed just three touchdowns in the second half in their last 16 games combined.
  • Both entrants in Super Bowl XLIX have touchdown passes by players who are not quarterbacks.
  • Seattle is the first team to make consecutive appearance in the Super Bowl since 2003-2004 when New England did it.
  • Seattle is the first team since the Chicago Bears, in 1985 and 1986, to lead the NFL in defense two straight seasons.
  • New England, back in 2007, scored almost 37 points a game during the 16-game regular season, but only 14 during the Super Bowl. New England, in 2011 averaged 32 points a game in the regular season, but scored just 17 during the Super Bowl.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs were not able to make the postseason, but defeated both entrants in this year’s Super Bowl.
  • Both of the starting quarterbacks in Super Bowl XLIX have been victorious in a Super Bowl. In his short career, Russell Wilson has a record of 10-0 against quarterback who won Super Bowls. In that same comparison, Tom Brady has a record of 15-8.
  • In 12 of the past 14 Super Bowls at least one of the starters was named, Brady, Manning or Roethlisberger.

How these stats help a bettor to make a more educated decision is up to the individual bettor, but numbers do not lie.

With just four days remaining until the Super Bowl kicks off, bettors will be inundated with data and information about the teams, the offense and defense and individual players. The hope is everyone will be able to digest it prior to the kickoff in order to make most educated bet available.

Super Bowl XLIX– Early Bettors Hitting the UNDER

The betting action on the Super Bowl slowed during this past weekend and the most recent movement shows the New England Patriots as 1-point favorites, while the point total has been bet down from 49 to 48 and some online books such as Bovada and sportsbook.com have it as low as 47.5.

The UNDER has been coming in strong on the total and finally books have moved it down. As the game approaches, the number could go even low and sharp money is holding out until the end when they might jump in on the OVER, according to topbet and betonline.

Last season a record was set for Las Vegas with $119 million wagered on Super Bowl XLVIII. Thus far, the handle looks to be a bit less, but there are still five days before kickoff. The money is coming in at a rate of 2 to 1 on the Patriots.

The impact due of deflate-gate is not that big, but has caused some emotional bettors to move away from New England.

Last season not only did much of the public think Denver had the better team, but emotionally they liked Peyton Manning and wanted him to win.

In this Super Bowl, after watching New England destroy Indianapolis, most thought New England and coach Bill Belichick were untouchable, but nobody besides hardcore fans of New England are on their side at this point.

The handle will definitely pick up on Friday and into the weekend all the way up to Sunday’s late afternoon kick off.

The Seahawks are hoping that cornerback Richard Sherman will be healthy enough to play and be effective in the game.

New England is hoping the controversy over the deflated footballs will not be a distraction to players from the game, while Seattle is quietly hoping it will be.

Defensively, the Seahawks are not as good as last season, but have played well the past 8 games. They have allowed just 78 points in the past 8 games played and could make it hard for Tom Brady and the Patriots to put points on the board, unless the run game for New England can put the defense back on its heels. If Seattle is able to pressure Brady up the middle, it could be a long day for New England.

On the offense, bettors must decide which rushing attack will win the time of possession and have more rushing yards. Even with the NFL turning into more of a passing game on offense, teams that have rushed for more yards than their opponents and won the time of possession in the Super Bowl have been very successful.

Time of Possession and Rushing Yardage Key to Winning Super Bowls

The curtain will close on another NFL season on Sunday night in Arizona when the final whistle sounds to end Super Bowl XLIX between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks.

The Patriots routed the Indianapolis Colts 45-7 to win the AFC Conference Championship, while Seattle needed a rally and overtime to win the NFC Conference Championship over Green Bay 28-22.

The Patriots have not played Seattle since October of 2012 when Seattle rallied from a deficit of 13 points to win 24-23 as a home dog of 4 points.

Both teams have gone to the ground attack over the last few weeks, and both will attempt to control the game’s tempo and clock.

Teams that win the battle of time of possession in Super Bowls have an outstanding record of 35-13 straight up and 34-11-3 against the spread. Teams that are able to rush for the most yards in the game are 37-11 straight up and 34-11-3 against the spread.

New England is 10-1 ATS versus offenses that gain 375 or more yards per game over the last three seasons. The Patriots are also 26-9 ATS when gaining 175 or more yards rushing in the previous game since 1993.

Seattle is 9-1 ATS after they have gained 6 yards or more per play in two straight games over the last three seasons. Seattle is also 13-4 ATS following a home win the last two seasons. The Seahawks are 14-3 ATS against defenses that allow 235 or more passing yards a game during the second half of a season, under Pete Carroll.

Bryan Stork the starting center for New England could miss the game due to a knee, while Justin Britt at OT and Jeron Johnson at safety are questionable.

Seattle’s Earl Thomas at safety and Richard Sherman at cornerback are probable.

The offense for New England is averaging 40 points per game in its two postseason games. Tom Brady has 6 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions in the two games for New England.

Russell Wilson guided Seattle to an amazing win in the postseason against Green Bay. He had four picks on that game, but rushed for a touchdown and threw the game winning pass for a touchdown during overtime.

Marshawn Lynch will be featured as much or more rushing for Seattle against the Patriots defense.

On defense, the secondary for Seattle has a number of injuries, but are tough, with speed and size, which will make it tough for Brady.

The game should be close, high scoring with a late score determining the winner of this year’s Vince Lombardi Trophy.

Bettors Have Two Weeks to Peruse Props, Lines and Trends

The two weeks between the NFL Conference Championship games and the Super Bowl is always a great time for bettors to peruse the many options for betting on the big game. There are ample prop bets available, the point spread, money line and of course the point total.

Props include betting on what score each team will have, who scores first or how many rushing yards a particular player will have.

Last season, the Seahawks to win by 22 points or more was 12 to 1.

The first play resulting in a score being a safety went off at 35 to 1. Surprisingly, both cashed.

There are countless props for stats including passing yards, rushing yards, interceptions, touchdown passes, sacks and more.

There has yet to be overtime in the previous 48 Super Bowls. That can be however bet on, if the game will end in overtime.

The biggest single sporting event in the U.S. brings out creativity in the odds makers. Smart bettors will sift through the props, and side bets trying to find where the edge is. Since 1976 and Super Bowl X that featured the Cowboys and Steelers, the point total has been OVER 23 times and UNDER 16 times.

The overs have dominated and one reason is teams with the lead are not as likely to sit on the bowl during the second half. If a team has a 14 to 20 point lead at half during the regular season, they might play conservative to run the clock down and to avoid any injuries.

However, during the postseason, each game is potentially the last and the Super Bowl is definitely the last therefore no lead is ever enough.

Often times new plays or even trick plays are put into the game plan to maximize every possibly scoring opportunity.

Despite there being a large number of overs, the importance of the defense cannot be overlooked.

Last year, Seattle won the title thanks to incredible defense despite being an underdog in the Super Bowl to Denver’s record setting offense.

High scoring teams like Green Bay and New Orleans lost in the divisional playoffs three years ago, but defensive minded Baltimore and New York reached the conference championships

Key numbers will enter the equation as well. Bookmakers are worried about being middled. In 2001, St. Louis was a 7- to 7.5-point favorite versus Tennessee. The Rams won 23-16.

This year’s game will feature the up-tempo New England Patriots offense and that dreaded defense for the Seattle Seahawks. It should be another tough decision for the bettors.

Early Line and Trends for Super Bowl XLIX

The Super Bowl is set. The New England Patriots will play the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLIX in Glendale, Arizona at University of Phoenix Stadium on February 1, 2015.

The line has made a dramatic move already on the game. On Sunday night, Bovada and sportsbook.com had Seattle as the short favorite at -2.5. The line never increased and was quickly bet down to New England -1.

The point total was opened on topbet and betonline at 48.5 and has remained steady at that figure.

The New England Patriots arrived at this point after defeating the Baltimore Ravens 35-31 in the AFC Divisional Playoffs. The Pats were 7-point favorites in that game

The Pats then routed the Indianapolis Colts by 38 points, 45-7. New England was the favorite in that game by 7 points as well.

As 13.5-point favorites, Seattle defeated the Carolina Panthers in the NFC Divisional playoffs 31-17.

The Seahawks rallied on Sunday to overcome a 16-0 deficit to defeat Green Bay 28-22 as an 8.5-point favorite.

New England will be appearing in its eighth Super Bowl. In the Pats previous seven, the club is 3-4 SU and 3-3-1 ATS. Each of the three wins for New England was by three points. In the seven prior Super Bowls the UNDER was 4-3.

Prior to this Super Bowl, Seattle had played in two. The Seahawks are 1-1 SU as well as ATS. The over/under was also 1-1.

Since 2008, the Patriots and Seahawks have played head to head just twice. In 2008, New England beat Seattle 24-21 in Seattle as a 7.5-point favorite. The OVER in that game was 43.

In 2012, Seattle defeated New England 24-23 in New England as an underdog of 4 points. The OVER in that game was 42.5.

For the 2014 NFL season, the Patriots are 14-4 SU and 10-8 ATS. Seattle is 14-4 SU and 11-7 ATS.

The OVER/UNDER for New England was 11-7 and for the Seahawks 10-8.

Trend to Think About

The underdogs have covered the spread in 6 of the past 7 Super Bowls. That includes outright wins in each of the past three Super Bowls by Seattle, Baltimore and the New York Giants.

Since the 2002 season, the underdogs are 10-3 ATS in the Super Bowl.

Over the past 4 Super Bowls played, the OVER is 3-1.

This is the third Super Bowl to be played in Arizona.

The game is 13 days away. Coaches and players will be preparing for the game, as will the bookmakers.

Last year, Super Bowl XLVIII took in the largest single handle for a Super Bowl in Las Vegas with over $119.4 million wagered.

Odds Makers Release New Super Bowl Futures, Rams Tumble Down List

Odds makers have released the latest odds for the Super Bowl. The ACL injury to Sam Bradford the St. Louis Rams starting quarterback proved how valuable he was to the Rams as their price nearly doubled when word was released he would miss the entire season.

Bradford was not even a year removed from an ACL tear he suffered October 20 of last year with the same knee, when he blew out the knee again on Saturday against the Cleveland Browns.

St. Louis had hoped to contend in the tough NFC West, but now likely will end up in fourth in the division.

In response to his injury, Bovada, topbet and other bookmakers adjusted the odds for St. Louis to win the Super Bowl from 40 to 1 to 75 to 1.

The Rams NFC title odds on betonline and sportsbook.com were also nearly doubled to 38 to 1 from 20 to 1 and their prices for the NFC West was moved up to 15 to 1 from 8 to 1

For their opener of the season versus Minnesota, St. Louis is only a 3.5-point favorite after the line was originally -6 in their favor.

Odd makers also adjusted the wins total for St. Louis by moving it down from 7.5 to 6.5.

Bradford’s significance cannot be overstated. Since 2012, the year Jeff Fisher took the reigns as head coach, Bradford has started 23 games, of which 8 were against NFC West opponents.

In this 8 games, the Rams were 5-2-1 SU and 6-2 ATS.

Eight games are not that many to compare by, but the strength of the opponents is enough to say the Rams were amongst a dark horse for the Super Bowl.

Shaun Hill will take over for Bradford. However, he has started just 26 games in the NFL in his career, which is not many to gain experience from.

The Rams likely will go back to the ground game to run time off the clock. With their strong defense, the games this season with St. Louis could be very low scoring.

The last time the Rams lost Bradford to an ACL tear, the team was 4-5 SU and 5-4 ATS with Kellen Clemens at quarterback. However, against the NFC West during that period the Rams were 0-4 SU as well as 1-3 ATS.

SUPER BOWL XLIX – Odds to win

 

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 9 to 2

DENVER BRONCOS 5 to 1

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 7 to 1

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 8 to 1

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 10 to 1

GREEN BAY PACKERS 10 to 1

CINCINNATI BENGALS 20 to 1

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 20 to 1

CHICAGO BEARS 20 to 1

PITTSBURGH STEELERS 20 to 1