What Team Will be the Next Long Shot to Win the Super Bowl

Super Bowl 50 is next up for NFL teams following the New England Patriots thrilling win over the Seattle Seahawks. The win by New England was the latest milestone over a remarkable run of 14 seasons.

Since 2001, New England has won the AFC East title 12 times, reached the AFC Championship 9 times, made six appearances in the Super Bowl and won four Vince Lombardi trophies.

At one time however, the Pats were big underdogs. In fact, New England was the last real long shots to win the Super Bowl, a team that came from nowhere to claim a Super Bowl ring.

In 2001, New England won its first Super Bowl over St. Louis. The Rams were heavily favored to win Super Bowl 36. The Patriots that year however were the last NFL champions to have ended their previous season with a record below .500.

The past 12 Super champions, according to Bovada and betonline, including this year’s Pats, all had records of 8-8 or better the year preceding their NFL title. Overall, those same winners of the Super Bowl averaged 11 wins the previous year.

Of the past 25 winners of the Super Bowl, only the 2001 Patriots and the 1999 Rams had losing records in the season prior to their Super Bowl victories.

The Patriots paid out big in 2001 as they entered the season as 50 to 1 long shots to win the title that year.

Not since then has a Super Bowl long shot lifted the Vince Lombardi trophy.

Of the past 25 winners of the Super Bowl, 18 won 10 or more game the season prior to winning the NFL title. According to topbet and sportsbook.com, this just completed season had 12 teams that won 10 games or more including the two entrants in the Super Bowl.

Of those 12 teams, the Arizona Cardinals and Baltimore Ravens are the long shots on the Super Bowl 50 futures board with 30 to 1 odds. Others include Cincinnati at 25 to 1, Detroit at 22 to 1, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh at 20 to 1.

With those odds, Baltimore has the most appeal; they pushed the Patriots to their limit during the divisional playoffs and did that with significant injuries.

However, while a win in the Super Bowl by Baltimore would be a long shot, it would not be a stunning surprise. The Ravens have been perennial contenders and Super Bowl champions.

The biggest sleepers would be the Houston Texans at 50 to 1 and the Buffalo Bills at 60 to 1. Both finished over .500 at 9-7 last season, both have strong defenses and a positive point differential.

Why New England Will Win Super Bowl XLIX

The New England Patriots will play against the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLIX today in Arizona.

This is the sixth Super Bowl for New England in the past 14 year, which is the most in league history over a span f 15 or fewer years.

New England’s 12 wins during the regular season was the fifth consecutive season of 12 or more wins. The Pats claimed the AFC East division for the eleventh time in 12 seasons.

The offense for New England was No. 4 in scoring at 29.3 points per game. New England played 7 of the league’s top 10 passing defenses with impressive numbers.

Seattle is ranked No. 1 in pass defense. However, of late the Seahawks have played quarterbacks such as Colin Kaepernick, Drew Stanton, Mark Sanchez, Shaun Hill and Ryan Lindley not your lineup of All-Pros at quarterback.

Brady had plenty of time in the pocket this season with the fourth fewest sacks at 26. Seattle’s quarterback Russell Wilson by contrast was sacked 42 times.

Seattle has a strong defensive secondary, but the group is banged up. Earl Thomas one of the safeties, dislocated a shoulder against Green Bay in the NFC Championship and will not be 100%.

This season the Pats won six of its seven games versus playoff teams, with the only loss in Week 13 at Green Bay 26-21.

The Green Bay loss was the only one New England suffered against NFC opponents.

In its six wins against playoff teams, the Patriots scored 34 points or more in each game, including 42 points or more against three AFC teams Denver, Cincinnati and Indianapolis (twice).

Seattle has not played well during this postseason. Carolina was able to out gain them and the game was much closer than the final score. In Seattle’s win against Green Bay, it was more about what Green Bay did wrong to give away the NFC Championship. The Packers controlled the game from start to finish, but failed miserably on several occasions to put the game out of reach of Seattle.

Seattle cannot afford to start slow or turn the ball over against the potent offense of New England. Seattle will likely not score 16 points from special teams and its defense as it did in last season’s Super Bowl rout of Denver.

New England is 20-4 ATS in games with point spreads between -3 and +3.

The last time the teams met head to head Seattle won 24-23, but New England held Marshawn Lynch to just 41 rushing yards. In five games against New England in his career, including while at Buffalo, Lynch is averaging just 53 yards per game.

The defense for Seattle has a hard time with tight ends. Can you say Rob Gronkowski?

Take New England 27-24.

Public Still Behind Patriots, Sharp Money On Seahawks


While the New England Patriots -1 has been the consensus line across most sportsbooks both online and in Vegas, with most of the early money on the Patriots, one bookmaker still believes things will move in the opposite direction as the Sunday kickoff starts to approach.

At online bookmakers such as Bovada and topbet, as much as 2.5 times more action has been taken on New England than on Seattle.

Most of the public is still high on the Patriots but many odds makers believe the point will arrive when money starts showing up on the weekend for the Seahawks. The quiet before the storm is how is happens during the two week period between the conference championships and the Super Bowl.

Once Friday arrives, things will change, according to online bookmakers betonline and sportsbook.com.

One bookmaker said he has had just on bet of six-figures for the Super Bowl thus far and that was for New England.

However, he said sharp money was favoring Seattle. So the thought is that the public was start to realize the same team that routed Denver in the Super Bowl last year is back again and their defense is still No. 1 in the league.

Some bookmakers moved the line from Patriots -1 to -1.5 and finally began taking money for Seattle, which prompted them to move it back down to Patriots -1.

A large amount of sharp action at New England -1.5 caused the bookmaker to move the line back down.

On the point total, the number is continuing to be bet down. Almost every bookmaker has the total sitting at 48, but a few here and there have it at 47.5.

It is anticipated that public money will go OVER and that could prompt bookmakers to move it back up to 48 or even 48.5.

Sharp money has taken the UNDER. The line opened as high as 49 and it has dropped to 48.5 and to 48, with a few at 47.5. However, books tend to stay on the high side since the public likes the OVER. However, the pros are definitely taking the UNDER.

The Super Bowl parties will start Sunday across the country in bars and homes from coast to coast, as the single most popular sporting event in the U.S. prepares to kickoff.

Bookmakers are expecting a surge in action from the public starting Friday and not letting up until just before the opening kickoff on Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET from University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

More Super Bowl Stats to Consider Before Placing A Bet

Leading up to the Super Bowl there is a vast amount of data and information to review when deciding on what team to choose to win or cover in the big game. More information is available if trying to determine whether the game will be high scoring or a defensive struggle.

Sportsbooks such as Bovada and betonline, amongst others have trends, head-to-head stats and other information for the bettors to review prior to making his or her pick. Other sites such as topbet and sportsbook.com provide the most up to date stats, injuries reports and in-depth analysis for the bettors.

Below are even more Stats to Ponder

  • This season when Seattle and New England are winners of the coin flip to start the game, the two are a combined 18-2, when the two lose the flip, the results are just 10-6 in the win column.
  • Seattle and New England opened the season 8-5, but since are 20-3.
  • Seattle and New England have allowed just three touchdowns in the second half in their last 16 games combined.
  • Both entrants in Super Bowl XLIX have touchdown passes by players who are not quarterbacks.
  • Seattle is the first team to make consecutive appearance in the Super Bowl since 2003-2004 when New England did it.
  • Seattle is the first team since the Chicago Bears, in 1985 and 1986, to lead the NFL in defense two straight seasons.
  • New England, back in 2007, scored almost 37 points a game during the 16-game regular season, but only 14 during the Super Bowl. New England, in 2011 averaged 32 points a game in the regular season, but scored just 17 during the Super Bowl.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs were not able to make the postseason, but defeated both entrants in this year’s Super Bowl.
  • Both of the starting quarterbacks in Super Bowl XLIX have been victorious in a Super Bowl. In his short career, Russell Wilson has a record of 10-0 against quarterback who won Super Bowls. In that same comparison, Tom Brady has a record of 15-8.
  • In 12 of the past 14 Super Bowls at least one of the starters was named, Brady, Manning or Roethlisberger.

How these stats help a bettor to make a more educated decision is up to the individual bettor, but numbers do not lie.

With just four days remaining until the Super Bowl kicks off, bettors will be inundated with data and information about the teams, the offense and defense and individual players. The hope is everyone will be able to digest it prior to the kickoff in order to make most educated bet available.

Super Bowl XLIX– Early Bettors Hitting the UNDER

The betting action on the Super Bowl slowed during this past weekend and the most recent movement shows the New England Patriots as 1-point favorites, while the point total has been bet down from 49 to 48 and some online books such as Bovada and sportsbook.com have it as low as 47.5.

The UNDER has been coming in strong on the total and finally books have moved it down. As the game approaches, the number could go even low and sharp money is holding out until the end when they might jump in on the OVER, according to topbet and betonline.

Last season a record was set for Las Vegas with $119 million wagered on Super Bowl XLVIII. Thus far, the handle looks to be a bit less, but there are still five days before kickoff. The money is coming in at a rate of 2 to 1 on the Patriots.

The impact due of deflate-gate is not that big, but has caused some emotional bettors to move away from New England.

Last season not only did much of the public think Denver had the better team, but emotionally they liked Peyton Manning and wanted him to win.

In this Super Bowl, after watching New England destroy Indianapolis, most thought New England and coach Bill Belichick were untouchable, but nobody besides hardcore fans of New England are on their side at this point.

The handle will definitely pick up on Friday and into the weekend all the way up to Sunday’s late afternoon kick off.

The Seahawks are hoping that cornerback Richard Sherman will be healthy enough to play and be effective in the game.

New England is hoping the controversy over the deflated footballs will not be a distraction to players from the game, while Seattle is quietly hoping it will be.

Defensively, the Seahawks are not as good as last season, but have played well the past 8 games. They have allowed just 78 points in the past 8 games played and could make it hard for Tom Brady and the Patriots to put points on the board, unless the run game for New England can put the defense back on its heels. If Seattle is able to pressure Brady up the middle, it could be a long day for New England.

On the offense, bettors must decide which rushing attack will win the time of possession and have more rushing yards. Even with the NFL turning into more of a passing game on offense, teams that have rushed for more yards than their opponents and won the time of possession in the Super Bowl have been very successful.

Time of Possession and Rushing Yardage Key to Winning Super Bowls

The curtain will close on another NFL season on Sunday night in Arizona when the final whistle sounds to end Super Bowl XLIX between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks.

The Patriots routed the Indianapolis Colts 45-7 to win the AFC Conference Championship, while Seattle needed a rally and overtime to win the NFC Conference Championship over Green Bay 28-22.

The Patriots have not played Seattle since October of 2012 when Seattle rallied from a deficit of 13 points to win 24-23 as a home dog of 4 points.

Both teams have gone to the ground attack over the last few weeks, and both will attempt to control the game’s tempo and clock.

Teams that win the battle of time of possession in Super Bowls have an outstanding record of 35-13 straight up and 34-11-3 against the spread. Teams that are able to rush for the most yards in the game are 37-11 straight up and 34-11-3 against the spread.

New England is 10-1 ATS versus offenses that gain 375 or more yards per game over the last three seasons. The Patriots are also 26-9 ATS when gaining 175 or more yards rushing in the previous game since 1993.

Seattle is 9-1 ATS after they have gained 6 yards or more per play in two straight games over the last three seasons. Seattle is also 13-4 ATS following a home win the last two seasons. The Seahawks are 14-3 ATS against defenses that allow 235 or more passing yards a game during the second half of a season, under Pete Carroll.

Bryan Stork the starting center for New England could miss the game due to a knee, while Justin Britt at OT and Jeron Johnson at safety are questionable.

Seattle’s Earl Thomas at safety and Richard Sherman at cornerback are probable.

The offense for New England is averaging 40 points per game in its two postseason games. Tom Brady has 6 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions in the two games for New England.

Russell Wilson guided Seattle to an amazing win in the postseason against Green Bay. He had four picks on that game, but rushed for a touchdown and threw the game winning pass for a touchdown during overtime.

Marshawn Lynch will be featured as much or more rushing for Seattle against the Patriots defense.

On defense, the secondary for Seattle has a number of injuries, but are tough, with speed and size, which will make it tough for Brady.

The game should be close, high scoring with a late score determining the winner of this year’s Vince Lombardi Trophy.

Early Line and Trends for Super Bowl XLIX

The Super Bowl is set. The New England Patriots will play the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLIX in Glendale, Arizona at University of Phoenix Stadium on February 1, 2015.

The line has made a dramatic move already on the game. On Sunday night, Bovada and sportsbook.com had Seattle as the short favorite at -2.5. The line never increased and was quickly bet down to New England -1.

The point total was opened on topbet and betonline at 48.5 and has remained steady at that figure.

The New England Patriots arrived at this point after defeating the Baltimore Ravens 35-31 in the AFC Divisional Playoffs. The Pats were 7-point favorites in that game

The Pats then routed the Indianapolis Colts by 38 points, 45-7. New England was the favorite in that game by 7 points as well.

As 13.5-point favorites, Seattle defeated the Carolina Panthers in the NFC Divisional playoffs 31-17.

The Seahawks rallied on Sunday to overcome a 16-0 deficit to defeat Green Bay 28-22 as an 8.5-point favorite.

New England will be appearing in its eighth Super Bowl. In the Pats previous seven, the club is 3-4 SU and 3-3-1 ATS. Each of the three wins for New England was by three points. In the seven prior Super Bowls the UNDER was 4-3.

Prior to this Super Bowl, Seattle had played in two. The Seahawks are 1-1 SU as well as ATS. The over/under was also 1-1.

Since 2008, the Patriots and Seahawks have played head to head just twice. In 2008, New England beat Seattle 24-21 in Seattle as a 7.5-point favorite. The OVER in that game was 43.

In 2012, Seattle defeated New England 24-23 in New England as an underdog of 4 points. The OVER in that game was 42.5.

For the 2014 NFL season, the Patriots are 14-4 SU and 10-8 ATS. Seattle is 14-4 SU and 11-7 ATS.

The OVER/UNDER for New England was 11-7 and for the Seahawks 10-8.

Trend to Think About

The underdogs have covered the spread in 6 of the past 7 Super Bowls. That includes outright wins in each of the past three Super Bowls by Seattle, Baltimore and the New York Giants.

Since the 2002 season, the underdogs are 10-3 ATS in the Super Bowl.

Over the past 4 Super Bowls played, the OVER is 3-1.

This is the third Super Bowl to be played in Arizona.

The game is 13 days away. Coaches and players will be preparing for the game, as will the bookmakers.

Last year, Super Bowl XLVIII took in the largest single handle for a Super Bowl in Las Vegas with over $119.4 million wagered.

Bookmakers Release 2016 Super Bowl 50 Futures

Super Bowl 49 is scheduled to kick off on February 1, 2015. Four teams remain in contention and after Sunday, just two will be left standing. The futures board for this year’s Super Bowl has the Seattle Seahawks at the top with New England a close second.

However, on Wednesday bookmakers such as Bovada and topbet released the futures for Super Bowl 50 scheduled for February 7, 2016 at Levi’s Stadium in San Clara, California.

Three of the four teams that are still in this season’s postseason lead the way on the 2016 Super Bowl futures board.

Seattle is at the top with 5 to 1 odds, following by New England with odds of 6 to 1 and Green Bay at 7 to 1. The three are the top three of the 32 teams, while this season’s other team still in the playoffs, the Indianapolis Colts are 16 to 1 to win next year’s Super Bowl.

The Philadelphia Eagles at 16 to 1, are the team with the shortest odds for next year’s Super Bowl that did not make the postseason this year.

Following the Seahawks, Patriots and Packers on the list is Denver at 8 to 1 and Dallas at 12 to 1.

Super Bowl 50 will be played at Levi’s Stadium, which is home to the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers, on betonline and sportsbook.com are 25 to 1 to win Super Bowl 50.

While it might seem quite early to have odds posted for a Super Bowl that is 13 months away, bookmakers are not that worried about any huge shift in power balance because of free agency, the draft or injury.

The NFL is not like the NBA where a trade, one such as LeBron James leaving Miami to play for Cleveland, has a huge impact on the futures prices. However, that dynamic does not take place in football.

It is rare that a rookie will have a big impact on prices on the futures board, said on bookmaker. Usually for something to move the futures board in the NFL, a number of trades or multiple free agent signings need to occur first.

Of course, if could happen and has happened, but odds are it will not and thus bookmakers released the futures for the 2016 Super Bowl and will make any adjustments as needed.

Super Bowl 50 Odds February 7, 2016

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 5 to 1
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 6 to 1
GREEN BAY PACKERS 7 to 1
DENVER BRONCOS 8 to 1
DALLAS COWBOYS 12 to 1
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 16 to 1
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 16 to 1
DETROIT LIONS 25 to 1
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 25 to 1
ST. LOUIS RAMS 25 to 1

Wild card Weekend Teams are Long Shots to Win the Super Bowl

Wildcard weekend opens the NFL playoffs on Saturday and bettors are wondering if the winner of Super bowl XLIX will come out of this weekend.

The eight teams playing this weekend in the NFL’s opening round of the postseason are all 10 to 1 or longer on futures boards on Bovada and topbet.

The Dallas Cowboys have the shortest price at 10 to 1 with each of the other seven teams 20 to 1 or higher, including the four teams playing in the AFC as Pittsburgh and Indianapolis are both 20 to 1, Baltimore is sitting on 30 to 1 and Cincinnati is at 40 to 1.

When looking at Indy Andrew Luck gives the bettor, an idea the Colts could win it. Ben Roethlisberger has won the Super Bowl before and knows what it takes at Pittsburgh, while Joe Flacco has been a Super Bowl MVP and could lead the Ravens back there again.

Andy Dalton at Cincinnati does not have the same stats as the other three and has struggled for the Bengals during the postseason.

However, Cincinnati has defeated Denver this season with its talented defense and strong running game, which makes it high on the list for some.

New England is 5 to 2 and Denver 6 to 1, but both have gone through stretches where they looked vulnerable.
Denver’s injury list is long, and can Peyton Manning come through in the end?

That is what makes it interesting on wildcard weekend as the four AFC teams, might just surprise in the second round, if they survive the opening round.

Injuries are concerning to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. Le’Veon Bell for the Steelers and A.J. Green for the Bengals likely will not play.

Nonetheless, the bottom four AFC seeds have more appeal than the bottom four in the NFC of Detroit, Dallas, Carolina and Arizona.

The big problem for the bottom four in the NFC is the Seattle Seahawks. On betonline and sportsbook.com, Seattle is sitting at 9 to 4 to win the Vince Lombardi Trophy.

Dallas can stay out of the Seahawks sites until the NFC Championship game, but Arizona and Carolina are not as lucky, and if the Lions defeat Dallas this weekend, they get to travel to Seattle for round two.

Dallas is a tough choice even at 10 to 1. The Cowboys must travel to Green Bay if they defeat Detroit this weekend. Green Bay is 8-0 at home this season.

The road for anyone of the four NFC teams this weekend is a tough one, but if Dallas can defeat Detroit and then Green Bay, they likely would face Seattle.

They have already beaten Seattle in Seattle this season, but who would bet on that happening for the second time in one season, few, if any.

Seattle Tops the Futures Board for Super Bowl XLIX

The long road to the Super Bowl begins this weekend with the NFL Wildcard games that start the postseason.

The defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks have wrapped up home field advantage throughout the playoffs in the NFC and have been named the favorite to win February’s Super Bowl XLIX.

The latest odds on Bovada and sportsbook.com shortened the Seahawks odds from 5 to 2 to 9 to 4. New England, the No. 1 seed in the AFC, is the second choice in the Super Bowl futures board at 5 to 2 according to topbet and betonline.

That price for the Patriots is unchanged from the previous week, as New England has already clinched home field throughout the AFC playoffs prior to Week 17.

Green Bay and Denver are the only two other teams listed that have prices in the single digits, followed by the 10 to 1 Dallas Cowboys.

One way to make a strong bet on the Super Bowl winner is taking the money line during each week of the postseason and then rolling those winnings over each week.

The six teams in each conference are very equally matched heading into the postseason. Dallas is playing at the top of its game, but many are still not sure if their game is good enough to beat Seattle or Green Bay if they were to meet in the NFC Conference Championship.

In the AFC, the Patriots led by Tom Brady have played well for most of the season. Their Sunday loss to Buffalo should not affect the team as reserves played a huge part in that game.

In the NFC, Seattle has found its game again after a midseason hiccup that nearly cost them their division title, but the Seahawks have won 6 straight heading to the postseason.

The Super Bowl will be played on February 1 in Glendale, Arizona at University of Phoenix Stadium.

The current line in the game is with the NFC as a favorite by 1.5 points. The point total is sitting on 49 at the moment.

Below is a list of the odds for the 12 teams that remain in contention for Super Bowl XLIX.

Super Bowl XLIX Futures
Seattle Seahawks 9 to 4
New England Patriots 5 to 3
Green Bay Packers 5 to 1
Denver Broncos 6 to 1
Dallas Cowboys 10 to 1
Indianapolis Colts 20 to 1
Pittsburgh Steelers 20 to 1
Baltimore Ravens 30 to 1
Detroit Lions 40 to 1
Cincinnati Bengals 40 to 1
Carolina Panthers 40 to 1
Arizona Cardinals 75 to 1