Time of Possession and Rushing Yardage Key to Winning Super Bowls

The curtain will close on another NFL season on Sunday night in Arizona when the final whistle sounds to end Super Bowl XLIX between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks.

The Patriots routed the Indianapolis Colts 45-7 to win the AFC Conference Championship, while Seattle needed a rally and overtime to win the NFC Conference Championship over Green Bay 28-22.

The Patriots have not played Seattle since October of 2012 when Seattle rallied from a deficit of 13 points to win 24-23 as a home dog of 4 points.

Both teams have gone to the ground attack over the last few weeks, and both will attempt to control the game’s tempo and clock.

Teams that win the battle of time of possession in Super Bowls have an outstanding record of 35-13 straight up and 34-11-3 against the spread. Teams that are able to rush for the most yards in the game are 37-11 straight up and 34-11-3 against the spread.

New England is 10-1 ATS versus offenses that gain 375 or more yards per game over the last three seasons. The Patriots are also 26-9 ATS when gaining 175 or more yards rushing in the previous game since 1993.

Seattle is 9-1 ATS after they have gained 6 yards or more per play in two straight games over the last three seasons. Seattle is also 13-4 ATS following a home win the last two seasons. The Seahawks are 14-3 ATS against defenses that allow 235 or more passing yards a game during the second half of a season, under Pete Carroll.

Bryan Stork the starting center for New England could miss the game due to a knee, while Justin Britt at OT and Jeron Johnson at safety are questionable.

Seattle’s Earl Thomas at safety and Richard Sherman at cornerback are probable.

The offense for New England is averaging 40 points per game in its two postseason games. Tom Brady has 6 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions in the two games for New England.

Russell Wilson guided Seattle to an amazing win in the postseason against Green Bay. He had four picks on that game, but rushed for a touchdown and threw the game winning pass for a touchdown during overtime.

Marshawn Lynch will be featured as much or more rushing for Seattle against the Patriots defense.

On defense, the secondary for Seattle has a number of injuries, but are tough, with speed and size, which will make it tough for Brady.

The game should be close, high scoring with a late score determining the winner of this year’s Vince Lombardi Trophy.

Super Bowl Facts and Figures

Super Bowl XLIX kicks off on Sunday February 1 in Glendale, Arizona at University of Phoenix Stadium between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots.

Before the kickoff, bettors will have loads of data to peruse to help them decide the best opportunity they will have to walk away a winner at the betting window.

Here are a number of Super Bowl facts to consider.

  • New England has not won the Super Bowl in 10 seasons. In each of New England’s three Super Bowl victories, the team built leads of double-digits during the game. In each of their four losses, the Patriots never had a lead of over 8 points.
  • The Patriots were OVER in 11 games this season. However, against four NFC opponents, the Patriots were over only once.
  • Tom Brady the star quarterback for the Patriots wears No. 12. Including the five Super Bowls he has played in, quarterbacks sporting No. 12 on their jerseys are 14-12 in Super Bowls, with the last winner being Aaron Rodgers in Super Bowl XLV for Green Bay.
  • This is the 13th appearance by a team currently playing in the NFC West. The previous 12 were 7-5.
  • Head coaches that are appearing for the second time in the Super Bowl have an all-time record of 14-8. This is Pete Carroll’s second trip.
  • In the previous 48 Super Bowls, the underdog has won outright 15 times. The largest upset was in 1969 in Super Bowl III when the Baltimore Colts lost to the New York Jets 16-7. The Jets were underdogs by 18 points.
  • Seattle gave up 16.3 points per game this season, which was No. 1 in the NFL. Seattle was also the league leaders last season in scoring defense.
  • Seventeen Super Bowls have been played inside a dome or a stadium with a retractable roof. In those 17 games, the favorite is 12-5 straight up and 9-6-2 against the spread. The UNDER has gone 10-7.
  • Brady and Bill Belichick have won 20 postseason games since 2001. Over that span of playoff appearances, New England is 20-8 SU but just 12-15-1 ATS.
  • In its past eight games played, Seattle has given up a combined 78 points. Seattle is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in those eight games.
  • The OVER has cashed 24 times in the previous 48 Super Bowls. In the last four Super Bowls, the OVER is 3-1.
  • Quarterbacks have won the Most Valuable Player in the Super Bowl 26 times and four of the past five.
  • Seattle allowed just 27 touchdowns in their 16 regular season games, which was second in the league. In the postseason, they have allowed three with none on the ground.

Super Bowl XLVIII Trends to Start the Week

Trends are what help bookmakers set their lines and can help the public bettor have a higher percentage chance of winning this Sunday in Super Bowl XLVIII.

Of course, the important thing is deciding what trends are important and which ones might not have much effect on the outcome of the game or your bet.

The Super Bowl has been played since 1967 and in this one pitting the Denver Broncos vs. the Seattle Seahawks might be one of the most evenly matched of the 47 already played.

Identical

Super Bowl XLVIII is the first SB in the past 20 years to have two No. 1 seeds facing off, both teams come into the matchup with 15-3 SU records.

During the regular season, both teams played against the teams from the AFC South. Both teams were 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS.

In the games versus playoff teams during the regular season, Denver finished 6-3 straight up and 5-4 against the spread. Seattle was 4-2 SU and ATS.

Head to head

Denver has a record against Seattle since 1993 of 16-5 straight up and 12-8-1 against the spread.

Seattle is 1-19 SU over its past 20 games against teams from the AFC West who have a .800 or better winning percentage.

Stats Do the Talking

The defense for Seattle is No. 1 overall in the NFL. The Seahawks allow only 284 yards and 15 points per game.

The offense for Denver is No. 1 in the league with 454 yards and 36 points per game averages.

As mentioned in a previous report, this is the sixth time the No. 1 offense has played the No. 1 defense in the Super Bowl. The defense is 4-1 in those matchups.

In addition, the team, with the better overall defense, and in this case it is Seattle, is 39-8 SU in the previous 47 Super Bowls.

However, more recently, the better defensive teams are only 2-5 straight up and 1-6 against the spread over the past seven Super Bowls.

Favorites in the Super Bowl of 5 points or less, in the two-week rest period – bye the first week of the playoffs and the week off before the Super Bowl – are 1-7 SU as well as ATS. Denver is favored by just 2.5 points as of Monday.

Quarterbacks

Both teams have strong quarterbacks. Denver’s Peyton Manning tore up the league’s defenses this season for 55 touchdown passes and just 10 picks. Russell Wilson for Seattle had 26 touchdowns and 9 picks.

Manning led the league in passing and has continued with a high ranking in the postseason, while Wilson’s numbers have fallen during the playoffs.

Manning is 2-2 straight up and 3-1 against the spread versus Seattle. Overall, with Denver, Manning is an impressive 29-7 straight up and 22-12-1 against the spread.

The Broncos are not known for defense, but in 14 games they have held their opponents to 200 passing yards or less, Denver is 12-2 straight up and 10-4 against the spread.

The NFC is 21-11 SU as well as 20-10-3 ATS over the past 32 Super Bowls. Over the past five, the NFC is 4-1 straight up and against the spread.

Soon it will be time to decide which team gets your play.

Trends to Consider When Choosing Super Bowl Winner

Manning
Manning
Peyton Manning's Broncos are one of the favorites this year and hold a very distinct trend by themselves.

The National Football League is now well underway with it’s’ preseason schedule heading for week three. As the injuries mount and the teams come together, you are in a position where you’re ready to lay money on the team you like to win the Super Bowl. Don’t just look at the odds which of course are important but there are other things to keep in mind moving forward.

If you’re into trends or believe ever so lightly in superstitions then I’ve got some things that you need to see before you slap the cash down on your Super Bowl favorite.

1. Preseason records don’t mean a whole lot with one exception. If the team you are considering is currently 0-2 in the preseason, hold your money. I say this because only one time in the Super Bowl era has a team gone winless in the preseason and gone on to win the Super Bowl. That was the 1982 Washington Redskins.

Furthermore, only two other teams have had winless preseason’s and made the Super Bowl and those were the 2000 New York Giants and the 1990 Buffalo Bills.

2. Check out the Eagles’ home opener. The last four Super Bowl champions, Baltimore, New York, Green Bay and New Orleans, were all the home-opening opponents for the Philadelphia Eagles. I think that trend dies this year at least on paper because all four of those teams were legitimate Super Bowl contenders entering their respective seasons.

Patriots
Do the New England Patriots hold a key Super Bowl trend?

This year, the Eagles open on the road in Washington before returning to Philly for the home opener against……… The San Diego Chargers. Of the four previous teams and this year’s opponent, the Chargers are by far the one you’d have picked last to go to the Super Bowl so this is a trend to be very careful of entering the season.

3. Check the Patriots’ Schedule. The last eight Super Bowl champions have played the New England Patriots in the regular season. None of those were from the AFC East either meaning the trend doesn’t apply to the Dolphins, Bills or Jets. At least not yet anyway. This season, the Pats have the NFC South, the AFC North and then Denver and Houston.

4. Speaking of the Patriots… And NFC East. The past seven Super Bowl Champions have played both the New England Patriots and have had the NFC East on their schedule. This applies to only one team in 2013 and it’s a big time favorite too. The Denver Broncos will play at Dallas and at New York and will have Philadelphia and Washington at home. Their game with the Patriots is New England on November 24th.

5. 11 is a very important number. This is a stat you really can’t do much with because it depends on how the season progresses, but it does provide an important indicator of Super Bowl success. 39 of the 47 Super Bowl champs have had at least 11 or more wins. This trend has taken a beating in recent years though. Last season, the Ravens had 10 regular season wins and the year before the New York Giants finished 9-7. The Green Bay Packers finished their Super Bowl winning season at 10-6 so that’s three straight years this trend has failed.

Be very careful with this trend because of the fact that Super Bowl winning teams over the last eight or so years have typically been teams who have gotten hot late in the season. You have to decide whether or not the team you think will win the Super Bowl will get to that 11-win total. Nonetheless it’s a trend to pay attention to when making your final decision.